rolltide

Perception v. Reality

Posted on by boom booms room staff

The 2021 College Football Playoff National Championship is a week from this evening in Miami.  We’re down to two teams.  It’s going to be a dandy.  It’s Perception vs Reality.

In the semifinals, perception and reality collided as well.  We questioned if Notre Dame even belonged.  We questioned why Ohio St. even got the chance as eight-point underdogs to Clemson.

We had a perception of how 2020 was going to be as well.  How did that turn out?

Notre Dame seeded fourth lost by 17 to one-seeded Alabama.  Second seed Clemson lost by 21 to the third-seeded Ohio St.  So, based on results, if ND didn’t belong, did Clemson?

Dabo Swinney spent the post-game trying to explain why his defense was shredded for nearly half a hundred points and over 700 yards.  He told the world that he needed to better prepare his team.  In other words, we were the better team, we just didn’t coach ’em up well enough.

Brian Kelly spent the post-game fielding question after question trying to explain why ND even deserved to be there after yet another beatdown in the final four, much less a major bowl.  As they say in the finance world, past performance is no indication of future results.  Or, is it?

Ah, there it is.  Dabo’s Tigers have won it all or at least the semi in the recent past time and again.  Kelly’s Irish have fallen like St. Pat’s Day Irishman walking out of the local pub yet again.

It’s perception v reality.  We perceived Clemson belonged.  We knew ND didn’t.  One gets a pass while it’s getting pounded in the semis.  The other gets pounded for getting a pass into the semis.

What about an eight-team playoff you say?  The average margin of victory in the seven years of the playoffs in the semis is 24 points per blowout.  If the semi losers can’t hang with the finalists, what makes you think the next four in would be any better?  Perception does.

Put the five Power 5 conference champs in, one independent, and two deserving wild cards you say?

The ACC went 0-6 in bowl games. What makes any conference champs deserving?   Perception does.

But, Ohio St. didn’t win enough games to get in.  Hmm.  Clemson beat a bunch of also-rans in seems.  Hmm.

One independent?  This sounds like a nod to ND all over again.  And, why only one?  Or, why any?

Two wild card teams?  Sure.  It’s what you have now, but you’re adding two more.  Good luck to them.

Hey, why not an inclusive minority entrant every year as well?  We digress.  Yellow ribbons for all.  And, again.

“Team X would have given ND a better game!”  Good thing it’s Monday, cause that’s Monday morning quarterbacking with your eyeballs.  Did those same eyeballs think Clemson was better than Ohio St.?  Reality check.

Texas A&M deserved to be in.   They didn’t win a conference.  They got worked by Bama.  But, didn’t everybody?  It’s your perception once again.  If you go undefeated in the regular season you remove any doubt.

Unless you are Cincinnatti, that is.  “Cincinnati deserved to be in.”  Did they beat a bunch of also-rans, too?  The committee’s perception said as much.  And, a loss to two-loss Georgia, no matter how well played, is a loss.

Kirk Herbstreit said, “Nobody would want to be playing Oklahoma right now!”  That might be true.  But to get there you have to win games in September just like November.   And, if ND gets pummeled for past performance how about Oklahoma?  They’re 0-3 in the playoffs, including a 63-28 shellacking by LSU last year.

Bring back the computerized BCS system.  Its only bias is the perception of its programmers.  To think just a few years back sportswriters actually wrote, “we have to get rid of this computer system, it has no idea who the best teams on the field are.”

Come Monday night Perception (Bama) is favored over Reality (Ohio St) by 8.  You know Bama is the best team, don’t you?

The reality is that Vegas builds big hotels with fancy marble, fountains, and statues.  They use our perceptions as the foundation.

 

 

 

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-NCAA Football

Posted on by boom booms room staff

It’s Monday and it’s time to take a look at the NCAA football  and it’s AP Top 25.  Week eight is in the books, and we cook up ten nuggets to review it.

  1.  Alabama remains entrenched at #1.  They won the home game against Tennessee 35-13, and lost a QB in the process.  Tua Tagovailoa underwent surgery for a high ankle sprain yesterday and is expected to be back for the early November showdown with LSU, who remains at #2 after a 36-13 win at Mississippi St.
  2.  Clemson’s won 45-10 over Louisville on the field.  But, off of the field they lost one place in the polls.  They are now #4 after Dabo Swinney told reporters that his sophomore QB Trevor Lawrence had four really bad plays in the game.  Their loss was THE Ohio St University’s gain as THE climbed to three.  THE beat Northwestern all sixty minutes long in a 52-3 Friday night blowout.
  3. Oklahoma #5 and Penn St #6 round out the top six teams all with 7-0 records.  Oklahoma stayed at #5 while Penn St jumped into the spot formerly occupied by fellow Big 10 school Wisconsin.  Whisky looked hungover all Saturday afternoon losing to lowly Illinois 24-23.  James McCourt kicked a 39-yard field as time expired and Illinois pulled off the biggest upset of the college football season bar none.  The Badgers dropped a steep seven spots to #13.  Their playoff dreams are now a headache and need two aspirin.  Penn St jumped to a 21-0 lead at home over Michigan then held on to win 28-21.  Jim Harbaugh’s team suffered another loss to a big time team in a Big Ten game in a big time moment.  He decided to question the officiating. “It’ll be interesting to compare some of the different scenarios in the game, in terms of calls,” Harbaugh said.  Perhaps a look in the mirror would be interesting as well.
  4. Florida and Notre Dame begin the parade of 6-1 clubs at #7 and # 8 respectively.  Florida hoped over ND moving from 9 to 7 a week after their first loss as they fought off a game South Carolina Gamecocks team in the rain in SC.  Will Muschamp had a few choice words for a few refs after a few bad calls and non calls post game.  He said he had nothing more to say about it.  Then, almost under his breath he uttered “gutless” describing the refs decision to flag him for unsportsmanlike conduct.    His wallet might be a few “dollars less” after the NCAA takes a look.  ND was idle before they travel to Michigan this week.
  5. Auburn jumped two spots back into the top ten at #9 after running over Arkansas 51-10.  Arkansas is a bad football team.  Their fake punt, which you can see here, could be the worst designed special teams play, well, ever.  The Auburn Tigers travel to Baton Rouge for a top ten showdown/throwdown with the LSU Tigers Saturday.
  6.  Georgia wore down Kentucky 21-0 in the mud and rain in Athens a week after they were upset by SC.  Georgia threw for a measly 35 yards all game on just 12 attempts.  Kentucky one upped that, or one downed that, throwing for a measly 17 yards on 18 attempts.  If you missed the game you don’t have to brag about it.
  7. Oregon and Utah rep the PAC 12 and are ranked #11 and #12.  Oregon’s season opening, last seven seconds loss to Auburn is deep in the rear view mirror now.  The Ducks went to Washington and escaped with a fine 35-31 win.  They’ll need help to climb back into any playoff discussion.  But with only two road games left of the five remaining, at USC and at #24 Arizona St., they do have an outside shot as others ahead of them square off.
  8.  Baylor says hello, remaining undefeated after an impressive road win at Oklahoma St. 45-21.  The Bears are 7-0 and have Texas and Oklahoma visiting Waco in mid November.  Baylor moved up four spots from 18 to 14.
  9. SMU 7-0, Minnesota 7-0, and Appalachian St. 6-0 round out the undefeated teams at #16, #17, and #21 respectively.  Much like Rodney Dangerfield it seems they get no respect.  Boise St. was undefeated but got bounced at BYU by the Cougars.  Boise St fell from 14 all the way down to 22.
  10. A few early lines are out.  THE Ohio St. U is a home 14 point favorite over Wisconsin.  LSU is a home 12 1/2 point favorite over Auburn.  Michigan is a surprising home 2 1/2 point favorite over the Fighting Irish.

Don’t leave your plate in the sink.  Put it in the dish washer please.

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year 2, Week 2

Posted on by boom booms room staff

Abby’s offseason wasn’t spent howling at the moon.  Her rigorous research began to pay off in week one.  While only two of five against the spread picks cashed her bones won were six while her bones lost were only four.  We’ll take 60% money all season long if we can get it.  Her hunch parlay bet split(lost), as the under covered and the over fell just shy.

College football picking isn’t easy.   The smart money in Vegas (called the Sharps) focuses on a narrow window of analytics and doesn’t stray (Abby doesn’t like strays either).

That’s why it’s important for her to risk various amounts (bones) to weight average the risk.  Remember one bone equals $11 risked to win $10.

She urges great caution every year in week two.  Over reactions to good or bad play in week one can feel like chasing parked cars come late Saturday night.

Wake Forest at Rice +20 — Rice isn’t a very good football team.   But, they are beginning to play a bit if D in downtown H town.  And, it’s hot in downtown H Town.  Very.  100 degrees hot is predicted at game time.  That’s why smart Owls only come out at night.  One bone.

UAB -8.5 at Akron —  A little bird is chirping in Abby’s ear about UAB being a smart money play all year.  Abby normally chases birds away, but she’s embracing this one.  Two bones.

Texas A&M +18 at Clemson — Betting against Clemson is indeed like a dog chasing the proverbial parked car.  Abby has a soft spot for Reveille, the A&M mascot, but won’t let puppy love interfere with money.  A&M is a legit dog.  Three bones.

BYU at Tennessee -3.5 —  One of Abby’s credos to live by is to “never kick a blue tick hound when he is down.”  This one falls squarely in the over reaction of week one category.  Tennessee looked like road kill in week one.  Three bones.

Miami -5 at North Carolina —  Dorian the Hurricane is pounding the North Carolina Outer Banks as Abby digs through these lines.  The Miami Hurricanes, if they can fix their woeful OL blocking, will do the same to the Tar Heels.  The sunshine was on Mack Brown for a week.  It’s raining now.  Two bones.

The line of Maryland -1.5 hosting Syracuse makes no doggone sense to us.   When it seems so odd Abby likes to play a hunch bet.  Take Maryland over a 21st ranked Orangeman team that might be looking ahead to hosting Clemson next week.

Enjoy the games and say a prayer for The Bahamas and for New Mexico St.  They go to Tuscaloosa, AL as a 56 point dog!  Woff!!