nflreferees

Payton’s Happy Place

Posted on by boom booms room staff

Late last week the New Orleans Saints and it’s head coach Sean Payton agreed to a five year contract extension.  Terms weren’t disclosed but our guess is that it pays $10 million per year at a minimum.  It’s great work if you can get it.  Payton can buy most anything he wants with that kind of dough.  Except, remember, money cannot buy happiness.

And, by Sunday night Payton was not very happy.  The Saints got worked in the second half by the NFC reigning champion LA Rams, and lost 27-9.  But, it was who they lost and how they lost that raises the coach’s blood pressure.  Midway through the second quarter, Drew Brees injured his thumb and after surgery Monday will miss the next six weeks.  Brees has played 15 seasons for the team and has played in at least 15 games each of those years.  That healthy streak is done.

But another streak is three games long and perhaps growing.  If you have any blood pressure you know that in the NFC Championship game in January was greatly influenced by a blown referee call effectively sending the Saints home and the Rams to the Super Bowl.  The head of NFL officiating apologized to Payton shortly after the game.

Fast forward to week one of this season and the Saints were victims again.  This time an improper run off of the clock just prior to the half cost them a chance at a shorter field goal in a tight battle with the Texans. The head of NFL officiating apologized to Payton shortly after the game.  Sound familiar?

And, on Sunday, the Saints scooped up a late second quarter fumble in a 3-3 defensive slugfest and returned it 87 yards for a touchdown.  Except the head referee thought that Rams QB Jared Goff arm had started forward, hence he blew the whistle, and the call.  The Saints got the ball on their own ten yard line as a consolation prize.  After a three and out the Rams got a short field and kicked a field goal.  This was a seven or ten point swing(depending on how you see it) in a deadlocked game.  Game changer.  The head of NFL officiating apologized to Payton shortly after the game.  Sound familiar?

Which brings us to a question.  If money cannot buy happiness, can it buy better officiating?  There is no grand plot to sabotage the Saints.  But, there is a standard deviation or two outlier outcome that puts them on the wrong side of three game changing, horrible calls.  Enough already.

Which brings us to a question.  If the NFL sent a whopping $8.7 billion net after expenses to the teams to share in 2018, could they consider paying for full time referees?  Doesn’t every other league worth talking about have full time officiating?   Of course they do.

Players are asked, er, told, um, must weigh in at a specific team desired weight.  They train year round, attend offseason OTA’s, study film, report to a fall camp, play four preseason games, play seventeen regular season games, and play as many as four playoff games.   You miss any of this you get fined.  You play poorly you get fired.  But most of all, you dedicate yourself  24/7/365 for the good of the team and the respect of the game.  Is it too much for the NFL to dedicate time, training, money, and people to officiate the sanctimonious NFL game in the same manner?  If they did, they could make far less “I’m so sorry” calls.

Money ($7.25 million) did buy Teddy Bridgewater as the highest paid backup in the league to Drew Brees.  He now needs to be a bridge over troubled water for six weeks.  Hopefully that money spent will buy Sean Payton some happiness.

Well, that assumes that the part-time employment referees will break their blown calls streak like Brees’ broken thumb will break his.

 

 

One Minute and Fifty Eight Seconds Left. Do You Make the Call to the Bullpen?

Posted on by boom booms room staff

In baseball, managers face the decision late in a game of when to pull pitchers and replace them with relievers.  One of three outcomes are possible.  If the starter and reliever get by unscathed the manager has succeeded.  If he waits too long and the starter falters he gets seconded guessed.  Fans sound off with “he should have gone with the reliever.”   If he pulls the starter before any real damage is done, but the reliever gets lit up he gets second guessed.  Fans sound off with “he should have stayed with the starter.”  None of the three outcomes are predictable to any certainty.

Similarly, in football, a head coach decides how to attack late in the game as well.  If you can score to go ahead, the “how” and “when” to do so can determine the final score.  In yesterday’s NFC Championship Game, Sean Payton faced this very dilemma.

If you live under a rock and/or don’t recall the moment, let’s reset the big stage under the bright lights.  The N.O. Saints had a first and 10 on the LA Rams 13 yard line.  The play that got them there was whistled dead with 1:58 to go in the fourth quarter.   That’s a TV timeout for the two-minute warning.  The score stood even at 20-20.  A very coveted berth in Super Bowl LIII was there for the taking.  The Rams had two timeouts remaining.

So, what is the surest outcome to gain that berth?  The surest would be to score on the game’s final play thereby eliminating any chance of comeback by the Rams by preventing them from touching the ball again.

But, with two timeouts and 1:58 left the only way to hold the ball and score on the aforementioned final play would require a first down.  Why?  It’s because the Rams would burn their timeouts immediately after first and second down assuming the Saints didn’t stop the clock themselves. Then, on third down, the clock would run till either a play on fourth down was run or the Saints called a timeout themselves.

Assume timeout number one at 1:53 and timeout number two at 1:48.  Third down would consume another five seconds to 1:43.  The 40 second clock could run down to one second, then the Saints would call a timeout.  That would leave 1:04 remaining.  A field goal could take four seconds and that would have left exactly one minute and no timeouts for the Rams.  This would give the Saints the lead by three, but not assure victory.  If they scored a touchdown on third down about 1:43 would remain.  This would give the Saints the lead by six(pending the point after) but more time for the Rams who would now need a touchdown to tie.

All of the above screams loudly again that the only sure way to win is to score on the final play and to do so would require a first down.

So, why did the Saints pass on first down in this scenario?  Payton gave Drew Brees the option to check into the quick slant to Michael Thomas and out of the run play called if the Rams showed blitz.  The Rams went to cover zero (no safeties, man on man, and all other defenders roaring to the ball carrier) run blitz.  Brees to Thomas this year had an 80% plus completion to target rate.  That’s almost as sure as a handoff to run clock.  But against cover zero it had a much better chance to gain yards than a run.  Remember, a first down almost assuredly wins the game.

Brees, shockingly, threw poorly and the ball landed at Thomas’ feet.  Bad call you say?  Remember the baseball manager?  There is no right answer to the play call because no outcome on first down unto itself determines the game.  It only tilts the odds from a bit to considerable.  If Thomas catches it and scores it’s considerably in the Saints favor.  An incomplete saves a timeout for the Rams, but little else.

Second down brought a predictable run and a timeout.  Bad call you say?  Remember the baseball manager?  If you wanted a run on first down you must have wanted a run on second down for the same reason as well.  Timeout Rams.

Third down and ten is now staring you in the face.  The run blitz on first down and the blow up of the second down run would have landed them in the same down and distance.  The difference was one saved timeout to this point for the Rams.  If you fail to get a first down now, a field goal hangs in the balance.  Would you have called a run here?  If so the Rams burn timeout number two and you kick.  That would have left them nearly 1:40 on the clock and no timeouts.  In the NFL with a kicker who was drilling warmup kicks from 65 yards(trust us on that one) 100 seconds is a long, long time.

Payton called a pass play.  Bad call you say?  Remember the baseball manager?  With the ball in the air a few outcomes were possible. A first down would have been the best.  A touchdown would have been super.  An incomplete pass would save a Ram’s timeout.  An interception was remote given the route, coverage, and ball placement.  Last but certainly not least, a pass interference penalty would have also given you a first down.  That’s the best outcome available and a sure chip shot field goal win would follow.

Payton, if asked, most assuredly would tell you that he played to win, not to not lose.  The word “conservative” is not in his dictionary.

Payton made the call.   The referee did not.

The field goal was good.  However, from that moment till overtime ended in the sudden death of the Saints, the Rams were better.

Remember the baseball manager?