Abby Picks, Year 4 Week 8

Skunked!  Well not totally, but Abby’s picks stunk at a minimum last week.

The only thing you can do when a dog gets skunked is to wash her down with some tomato juice and hope that it doesn’t happen again.

Luckily she has a lot of padding on her paws to cushion the 2-6 performance last week.  Overall she’s 24-18 in the won/loss column, 37-26 in bones, and the hunch bet won to bring that year long to a solid 6-1.

Moving along.

  1. Memphis -2 at UCF — In a Friday night coin flip game take the better team on the road and hope they can win at the very end of what will be a back and forth game.  One bone.
  2. Texas St at Georgia St -10 1/2 and Colorado at California – 8 — Two lines caught Abby’s eyes this week that looked like weird outliers v the teams’ performance to date.  Georgia St and California have no business being big favorites in these games.  So, Abby says take them in a parlay.  One bone to win three bones.
  3.  Oregon +1 at UCLA — Abby’s going with the better team on the road again in another coin flip game.  Cristobal is an under-the-radar, underrated coach.  One bone.
  4. Mississippi St at Vanderbilt +21 —  Vandy is not good and that’s being polite.  If Miss St loses this game Mike Leach will be called not good and that’s being polite.  He won’t, but the Bulldogs won’t cover either.  One bone.
  5. LSU ML at Ole Miss —  Who knows if LSU will play for themselves or come out dead flat with the Coach O news this week?  Abby doesn’t love LSU to win but loves the value in the bet.  One bone to win three bones.
  6. USC at Notre Dame -6 1/2 — For the third time the bet is the better team but this time ND is the home team.  Expect it close for three quarters then the Irish pour it on.  One bone.

Six bones to win ten, four chalks, three dogs, and one big can of tomato juice.

Woof!

 

O? Or Neaux?

Just last week we wrote about the perennial winning culture of the Pittsburgh Steelers, the perennial losing culture of the Detroit Lions, why they are who they are, and the chasm of difference in their on-field results.  It is titled Lions, Turkeys, and Culture.  Today we add Tigers to that list.

After Alabama dismantled LSU 55-17 last Saturday, we received a few inquiries from some of our VIP subscribers asking how the dramatic fall from the penthouse to the outhouse could be so severe and so swift in Baton Rouge.   So, unlike Coach Ed Orgeron we decided to listen to “what’s important now”  to our loyal fans and sent one of our best BBR investigative reporters to Baton Rouge to get answers.

LSU won it all last year by winning every one of its 15 games.  Individual awards, like Heisman trophies, and group awards, like the Joe Moore Award for the best offensive line, were collected like the marbles you had in your youth.  This year LSU has three wins against South Carolina, Vanderbilt, and Arkansas.  Their combined record is 5-22.  They have five losses.  The point total differential is 222-110 or an average beatdown of 44-22 in those games.

So, what happened and why so quickly?

As is usual in such a fall there is no one answer, but a multitude of them.  And, the collective weight of them gained steam like a snowball down a hill.  The culture went from envious to toxic.

First, LSU lost five players who were drafted in the first round of the NFL draft.  No one, not even Bama can replace that talent in the next year.  Sure, there are four and five-star talents waiting in the wings, but that doesn’t make them first-round talents.  Fourteen players in all were drafted, an all-time team high mark.

Second, almost half of the 14 were early declarations.  What better time to test the market when you’ve proven your worth.  You don’t go up from 15-0, you only go down.  This makes the 2020 edition short on experienced talent.  Stated differently, most of the best juniors are gone.

Three of the best that remained opted out prior to the season.  One, Ja’Marr Chase, will go in the first round as likely the second wideout taken after Bama’s Devonta Smith.  Know where Smith grew up?  Louisiana, but we digress.

Seven more have opted out along the way in the year of the COVID-19. Three of them will get drafted, and one of them will also go in the first round.

As the talent moved on so did the offensive co-coordinator Joe Brady to the NFL and the defensive coordinator Dave Aranda to the head coaching position at Baylor.  They were replaced by Scott Lineham and Bo Pelini respectively.  No disrespect, but the two fifty-something-year-old hires have lost a bit off of their fastballs.

All of the above was occurring while America burned during the summer of discontent.  Ed Orgeron was praised by President Trump during a speech or three.  Coach O, as is his right, returned the compliment.

Did this sit well with the team?  No.  They decided to peacefully march across campus, as is their right, calling for an end to police brutality.  Who did they not invite or alert?  Coach O.  The march ended in the president of the university’s office.  Yes, it did.  The president called a dumbfounded Orgeron who hurried to the office.

Afterward, a clearly caught off guard Orgeron said that he had learned a lot in listening to his players in the president’s office.  Afterward, he privately admonished them for not including him on the front end of such a public display.  This was much to the dismay of the players.

All of this has taken place while players have to isolate as a team to stay healthy, then isolate as an individual if they don’t stay healthy.  The weight of it all feels like the aforementioned snowball.  The spirit of the team reaches new lows weekly.

The 2020 season was a mere 1 and 1/2 games old when LSU starting quarterback Myles Brennan, an impressive redshirt junior went down and now is out for the season.  In his place is an 18-year-old true freshman without the benefit of spring practice nor much fall prep.  On the road in the SEC a “rookie” often looks like a deer caught in the headlights in the deep south.

So where to from here?  The LSU Athletic Department is accused of mishandling nine Title IX filings alleging coverup or negligence in sexual battery, domestic violence, and worse matters.  Most are alleged to have occurred by former football team members and possibly five while Ed O has been the head coach.  Internal investigations are ongoing.  It could be all of the cover AD Scott Woodward needs to lower the boom on Coach O just one year removed from on-field perfection.  It’s doubtful, but it’s possible.

Short of that, O needs to jolt his coaching staff to its core.  Good old boys need to be bought out or outright fired.  Some can’t coach.  Some can’t recruit.   Does LSU have the cash in the pandemic year revenue shortfall to clear out several?  The boosters do, but are they buying in more so than the team has?

Experienced talent is lacking v. historical norms, but two back to back top-five recruiting classes, one on campus, and one about to be signed net week will help greatly.  In Louisiana lots of four-star and a few five-star players are never too many mile markers away from Baton Rouge.

And, if he survives as is expected, Orgeron needs to take a deep look in the self-reflection mirror.

An incredible championship run likely bought him some time (one more year) to fix the many blemishes.  But trying to hide them with makeup doesn’t work well in the heat and humidity that south Louisiana is infamous for.

His often-repeated mantra of “One Team, One Heartbeat” is anything but.

 

 

Remember to Say Thank You!

Did you just get an other ugly sweater?  Gift cards are so in, yet so thoughtless.  Could the mashed potatoes be served any colder?  Who invited him?  Alexa, enough already.

Yep, ’tis the season.  Perhaps some simple advice would serve us all well today.  Say ‘thank you.’  That’s it.  It’s simple.  Just say ‘thank you,’ and tomorrow morning you can wake up and realize that you don’t need to go through this for another 364 days.

Need inspiration do you?  Take a look at this 42 second video.  In it Coach Orgeron shows us all how to be nice when choosing otherwise is foremost on our minds.  Just say ‘thank you.’

Coach is so nice he says it twice!

Oh, and, Merry Christmas!