Sports

Abby Takes Down the NFL

Posted on by boom booms room staff

Abby was taking some grief down at the doggie parlor yesterday morning.   Enough already, she barked.  Growing tired of getting hounded about her refusal to allow her expertise in NCAA football to bare its teeth in the NFL, she relented.

So, with her winter coat coiffed just so, here are the picks that you can bank that will make your stimulus check look like the measly dog treat that it is.

LA Rams at Green Bay -6 and 1/2–  The most important benefit to getting the no. one seed in the NFL playoffs is actually two-fold.  One, at the most important time you get a week off to heal your aching bones.  Two, you get to stay home and tackle a team that just laid it all out there the week before and now must travel.  The Rams have the best D in the NFL.  The Packers statistically have the best O.  In these days and times great O beats great D, especially if it’s on the frozen tundra.

          Baltimore + 2 and 1/2 at Buffalo – Buffalo will be a tough home team out.  They’re more talented 1-45 than most people realize.  And, they are having fun and playing loose.  Abby says that Lamar Jackson will make just one more big play than Josh Allen.

          Cleveland +10 at Kansas City – No one believes in the Browns except their fans.   The Chiefs’ last six games have been decided by 6 points or less.  They’ve won all six.  Cleveland is playing much like Buffalo.  They’re having fun.  Ole’ Andy Reid will dial up a special play for Mahomes and the Browns will lose a heartbreaker to add to the lore of being the Browns, but expect a cover.  Double-digit NFL dogs have a way of doing that.

Tampa Bay v New Orleans -3 –  It’s well-known that the Saints view this year as Super Bowl or bust.  They haven’t lived up to their season-long excellence in the last three years in bad playoff losses.  The Bucs are playing better than they have all year and it’s tough to beat a team three times in one year as the Saints will need to do.  It’s also tough to beat Tom Brady.  But, this is Brees’ last year and the Saints D will gift wrap him a win late.

As a public service announcement please know that Abby wore a mask and socially distanced at all times at the parlor.

 

 

Focus on the Process

Posted on by boom booms room staff

When Nick Saban won his first NCAA National Championship in 2003 he did so with a defense that held a potent Oklahoma offense to 14 points while his LSU Tigers put up 21.  Seven of those 21 points scored were by his defense as DL Marcus Spears dropped into coverage, picked a hot route, and picked up seven on a rumble into the end zone.

Game by game in the season’s 14 games (one loss) Saban’s defense surrendered 7,13,7,10,6,19,7,7,10,3,14,24,13, and 14.  That’s 154 in all and an average of 11 per game.

Last evening Nick Saban won his seventh championship, the last six all with Alabama.  No one has won more championships in NCAA history.  In this one, his offense put up 52 and his defense gave up 24 to Ohio St.

Game by game in this season’s 13 games (all wins) Saban’s offense scored 38,52,63,41,48,41,63,42,55,52,52,31, and 52.  That’s 640 in all and an average of 49 per game.

Maybe you don’t think the game is changed.  “Defense wins championships,” you say.  The run-pass option(RPO) with an athletic QB and the spread offense with the same has indeed changed the game.

And, Saban realized this.  “It used to be that good defense beats a good offense. Good defense doesn’t beat good offense anymore,” Saban told ESPN last October 23rd.   “It’s just like last week. Georgia has as good a defense as we do an offense, and we scored 41 points on them [in a 41-24 Alabama win]. That’s not the way it used to be. It used to be if you had a good defense, other people weren’t going to score. You were always going to be in the game.”

“I’m telling you. It ain’t that way anymore.”

He adapted.  And, quickly.  Expect Bama to have four first-round players taken in the 2021 NFL draft.  All will be on offense.  Just three years ago they had four as well.  Three were on defense.

Years ago Bum Phillips said, “Don Shula could take his’ums and be your’ums, then he could take your’ums and be his’ums.”  He could have been speaking about Saban as well.

Give Sarkesian credit.  He maximized great offensive talent with beautiful, year-long scheming.  Give Kiffin credit.  Before Sarkesian he did the same.  But, give Saban the credit as he had the foresight to recruit fast cars with great turning radius’ and hand the keys over on offense to paid professional drivers.

Seven championships in the last 17 years make Saban the best ever.  But, how long can he keep the dynasty rolling?  His 2021 recruiting class, when it’s complete in February, will record the highest cumulative rating ever assigned by the major services that track these kids.  It’s going to be hard to slow the Tide’s roll.

Oh, and his coaching tree looks like a forest.  But, he keeps hiring winner after winner to his staff as well.  What’s the one constant through it all?  Nick Saban.

His uncle Lou Saban was still coaching in Division II when he passed at 82.  Yes, nothing is forever, but Saban will likely adapt and figure out that Father Time problem as well.

How?  It’s because he is forever preaching “focus on the process and the results will take care of themselves.”

And, his results speak for themselves.

 

 

 

Perception v. Reality

Posted on by boom booms room staff

The 2021 College Football Playoff National Championship is a week from this evening in Miami.  We’re down to two teams.  It’s going to be a dandy.  It’s Perception vs Reality.

In the semifinals, perception and reality collided as well.  We questioned if Notre Dame even belonged.  We questioned why Ohio St. even got the chance as eight-point underdogs to Clemson.

We had a perception of how 2020 was going to be as well.  How did that turn out?

Notre Dame seeded fourth lost by 17 to one-seeded Alabama.  Second seed Clemson lost by 21 to the third-seeded Ohio St.  So, based on results, if ND didn’t belong, did Clemson?

Dabo Swinney spent the post-game trying to explain why his defense was shredded for nearly half a hundred points and over 700 yards.  He told the world that he needed to better prepare his team.  In other words, we were the better team, we just didn’t coach ’em up well enough.

Brian Kelly spent the post-game fielding question after question trying to explain why ND even deserved to be there after yet another beatdown in the final four, much less a major bowl.  As they say in the finance world, past performance is no indication of future results.  Or, is it?

Ah, there it is.  Dabo’s Tigers have won it all or at least the semi in the recent past time and again.  Kelly’s Irish have fallen like St. Pat’s Day Irishman walking out of the local pub yet again.

It’s perception v reality.  We perceived Clemson belonged.  We knew ND didn’t.  One gets a pass while it’s getting pounded in the semis.  The other gets pounded for getting a pass into the semis.

What about an eight-team playoff you say?  The average margin of victory in the seven years of the playoffs in the semis is 24 points per blowout.  If the semi losers can’t hang with the finalists, what makes you think the next four in would be any better?  Perception does.

Put the five Power 5 conference champs in, one independent, and two deserving wild cards you say?

The ACC went 0-6 in bowl games. What makes any conference champs deserving?   Perception does.

But, Ohio St. didn’t win enough games to get in.  Hmm.  Clemson beat a bunch of also-rans in seems.  Hmm.

One independent?  This sounds like a nod to ND all over again.  And, why only one?  Or, why any?

Two wild card teams?  Sure.  It’s what you have now, but you’re adding two more.  Good luck to them.

Hey, why not an inclusive minority entrant every year as well?  We digress.  Yellow ribbons for all.  And, again.

“Team X would have given ND a better game!”  Good thing it’s Monday, cause that’s Monday morning quarterbacking with your eyeballs.  Did those same eyeballs think Clemson was better than Ohio St.?  Reality check.

Texas A&M deserved to be in.   They didn’t win a conference.  They got worked by Bama.  But, didn’t everybody?  It’s your perception once again.  If you go undefeated in the regular season you remove any doubt.

Unless you are Cincinnatti, that is.  “Cincinnati deserved to be in.”  Did they beat a bunch of also-rans, too?  The committee’s perception said as much.  And, a loss to two-loss Georgia, no matter how well played, is a loss.

Kirk Herbstreit said, “Nobody would want to be playing Oklahoma right now!”  That might be true.  But to get there you have to win games in September just like November.   And, if ND gets pummeled for past performance how about Oklahoma?  They’re 0-3 in the playoffs, including a 63-28 shellacking by LSU last year.

Bring back the computerized BCS system.  Its only bias is the perception of its programmers.  To think just a few years back sportswriters actually wrote, “we have to get rid of this computer system, it has no idea who the best teams on the field are.”

Come Monday night Perception (Bama) is favored over Reality (Ohio St) by 8.  You know Bama is the best team, don’t you?

The reality is that Vegas builds big hotels with fancy marble, fountains, and statues.  They use our perceptions as the foundation.

 

 

 

 

GB, KC, I, and LV

Posted on by boom booms room staff

What did 61,946 people do all together on January 15th, 1967?  If you said they watched live from their wooden bench seats in the Los Angeles Coliseum as the Green Bay Packers beat the Kansas City Chiefs 35-14 in the very first Super Bowl played you were right.

A lot has changed since the first and this season’s upcoming Super Bowl LV (that’s 55), and a lot hasn’t.

It was the smallest crowd in SB history.  Leave it to uninterested Californians, even back then, to set the low mark.  But, we digress.

It was also played three weeks earlier than the date (Feb 7, 2021) that the final two teams will play LV.  Never forget that more games mean more money.  And acutely, more playoff games mean way more TV money.

No teams had bye weeks back then.  If you made the playoffs, you played off that next week.  And, only four teams in total made the playoffs.  The NFC had 15 teams while the AFC had nine.  This was prior to the next year’s major realignment.

Today 32 teams compete in two conferences that each has 16 teams.  And, for the first time ever, 14 teams (7 from each conference) will advance.

Importantly, the best regular-season record from each will have a one-week bye.  And, with one week remaining, who is in the driver’s seat for the one seed and that very valuable week of rest?  Why it’s the NFC Green Bay Packers and the AFC Kansas City Chiefs.

Maybe not so much has changed after all.  Or, maybe it has.

The popular saying that “defense wins championships” might be a bit dated.  It turns out that scoring points, and lots of them, attract even more viewers than ever.  And more viewers mean more money.  So, over the last 55 years time and again, the NFL has changed old rules and created new ones that provide the offense with a more distinct advantage by the year.

Now, if you throw in a quarterback or two that can buy more time with his feet, run for a first down when pressured, and still throw a tight spiral through a tight window, you’ve got points and points.

And Green Bay and Kansas City had just that in Bart Starr and Len Dawson.  In fact, they still do and a whole lot more.  They have the likely first and second-place finishers for the league MVP trophy in Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes.

Rodgers is a young 37 years old and seeking a second Super Bowl win.  He’s on a shortlist of the best QB’s to play in the last 15 years.  Mahomes is a mature 25 years young and is seeking his second consecutive Super Bowl win.  The QB list of the now and the future begins with his name.

Rodgers runs when he has to, while Mahomes runs when he wants to.  Both can break the hearts of a defense that forces a difficult third down and has done everything right.  That is until it hasn’t.

Green Bay can clinch the bye with a win over Chicago this week.  Kansas City already has.  The route to 55 will go through cold KC and colder GB.

Somewhere up there Vince Lombardi and Hank Stram are looking down and smiling about what might be yet to come.

And LA can relax.   After 55 years a pandemic will restrict the number of fans to far fewer than 61,946 in Tampa.

 

Ten Piece Nuggets- Sports

Posted on by boom booms room staff

We listened.  We learned.  You want your nuggets and you want them on Monday.

It’s only four days till Christmas.  Get some exercise after this helping or you’ll feel like a stuffed turkey all week.

  1.  The final CFP rankings are in and let the debate begin, er, continue.  It’s easy to get the no-doubters out of the way.  Alabama is the best team in the US and the second isn’t too close.  Clemson avenged an earlier loss to Notre Dame by walloping the fighting Irish by 24 Saturday to claim the second spot.
  2. But the fun/controversy starts from there.  Does Notre Dame belong as the fourth seed after the walloping?  Yes says the selection committee chairman.  CFP chairman Gary Barta explained the decision to include the Irish over No. 5 Texas A&M, saying it was “based on the complete analysis of the résumé” and the Irish had an additional win over a ranked team.
  3. And, more than a few “experts” and pundits aren’t sure that #3 THE Ohio St. even belongs.  The Buckeyes played in only six games as three were squashed by a bug as opposed to the other way around.  Aggie Coach Jimbo Fisher, he of the left out fifth rated A&M team, is amongst the dissenters.  Fisher had taken aim at Ohio State’s schedule following the Aggies’ win over Tennessee on Saturday.   “Seven straight SEC wins,” Fisher said. “Some schools ain’t even playing seven games.”  We thought “ain’t” ain’t a word, but we digress.  Fisher and his $75 can talk the talk, but they head to the Orange Bowl as a consolation prize none the less.
  4. So in the end, THE passed the eye test with fewer letters(games) on that wonky triangular chart. Close one eye and read all of line four, please.  They travel to the Sugar Bowl as 6.5 point dogs to Clemson.  It’s a rematch of last year’s 2 v 3 that Clemson won.
  5. Alabama heads to the Rose Bowl in Arlington, TX to begin its coronation as a big 17.5 point favorite over ND.  Wait, isn’t the Rose Bowl played in Rose Bowl Stadium in Pasadena, CA?  Yep, it normally (read as always) is.  However, this is the year of, well, you know.  The game was moved from Pasadena, California, to AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, because of the growing number of COVID-19 cases in Southern California, along with the inability for players’ and coaches’ families to attend because of state restrictions during the pandemic.
  6. BBR reached out to Cali Governor Gavin Newsome, who declined the Rose Bowl’s request for an exemption to the state’s tough stance, for comment.  We were told that he was dining at the French Laundry Restaurant all the while trying to convince Elon Musk to keep Tesla in Cali and not move it to Texas as well.   Tough times.  Newsome, facing a recall, could use some LL Cool J right about now.  The petition has 844k signatures and needs 1.5 million by March to force a vote.  We wonder if people can mail in their signature on the recall vote during these unprecedented times, but we digress once more.
  7.  Unlike the Lexus December to Remember yearly jingle, this bowl season might be one to forget.  There will be only 29 bowl games in all, down from 45 a year ago.  Sixteen were canceled.  Twenty-one teams opted out.  You need not have a winning record to play.   Army had a nine-win season and they were left out.  The SEC has 12 teams playing, six with a losing record.  The PAC-12 has two.
  8. In the NFL Antonio Brown caught his first TD pass since September 2019 as Tampa Bay completed a comeback from a 17-0 hole against Atlanta.  It was the second-biggest comeback ever for the Tampa Bay franchise.  For Atlanta, it was yet another come from ahead defeat.  The latest is the second time Tom Brady turned the trick.  Remember Atlanta leading New England 28-3 in Super Bowl LI?  Atlanta made NFL history earlier this season as the first team to lose twice in one season while holding a 15-point-plus lead in the fourth quarter. The Falcons have blown leads of more than 10 points seven times since 2015!
  9. Rookie Jalen Hurts made a strong case that he should continue as the Philadelphia Eagles’ starter, tossing three touchdowns and running for another in a wild 33-26 loss to the Arizona Cardinals. Hurts has pumped life into the Philly team in two weeks.  Whining Carson Wentz weighed in.   Sources told ESPN’s Adam Schefter that Wentz is not pleased with the way things have unfolded in the organization and wants to move on from the Eagles if the current situation continues.  Wentz went there.
  10. There is NO QB controversy in Kansas City.  If you caught any of the KC 32-29 win over New Orleans yesterday, you saw “the best quarterback in all of the land.”  Mahomes can do it all.   He buys time and sucks defenders to him only to pass over, around, behind, and backward like no other.  He’s the highest-paid QB for a reason.  It’s because he’s the best QB in the NFL.  If you were starting an NFL team from scratch and could pick anyone at all to lead it, Mahomes would be your man.  Meanwhile, Drew Brees has some rust to shake off if New Orleans has any hope of seeing the Chiefs seven weeks from now in Tampa for Super Bowl LV.

It’s a short week.  Today is hump day.

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Yr 3, Wk 13

Posted on by boom booms room staff

Like the calendar year of 2020 that began with so much promise, Abby’s picking prowess ran hot for a while.  Unfortunately, three straight weeks of average to below have sunk the season longs to a dog paddle slightly below water level.

For the season the won/loss/tie sits at 30-34-1.  The money bones are up 50-47, though that’s now a bit on the bookies’ side when the juice is factored in.  The hunch bet continues a stock market like turnaround.  Once at 1-4, it’s now at 5-4.  Staff members rejected the suggestion this week to rename it the Tesla/Netflix bet.

It’s conference championship week.   Abby’s going to wait a week to start the NFL picks.

  1.  The Alabama Coronation Ball, aka the SEC Championship, pits Florida with Pitts dressing out this week against the Tide L Wave Goodbye to the Competition.  Alabama will win, it’s only a question of how many.  Abby likes a sneaky under 74 and 1/2.  Two bones.
  2.  UAB v Marshall -5 1/2 – Conference USA, with more stones than the Big 10 and PAC 12 played a near-full slate of games in this year of the COVID-19. Heck, they even started sooner than the SEC.  Marshall led the herd, and the Thundering Herd will cover this evening in Abby’s Friday Night special.  It should be noted that she took Arizona +11 v Arizona St last Friday night in a Sun Devil 70-7 win, but we digress.   One bone.
  3.  USC v Oregon under 65 – Oregon is filling in for Washington in the PAC 12 Championship Game.  Isn’t that fitting?  The league that couldn’t start, then did, can’t finish without a hitch either.  And, give her Oregon(+3) as an outright win would not surprise. Two bone parlay to win six.
  4.  Minnesota at Wisconsin -12 and 1/2 –  This line makes no doggone sense to Abby.  None.  The Badgers have scored a total of 20 points in their last three contests, or roughly Bama’s average on its first three drives weekly.  The winner of the game receives Paul Bunyan’s Axe, a tradition that started in 1948 after the first trophy, the Slab of Bacon, disappeared after the 1943 game when the Badgers were meant to turn it over to the Golden Gophers.  Inexplicably Abby likes Whiskey (so does her grandfather, but we digress again) to cover.  Two bones.
  5. Illinois at Penn St -15 – We repeat.  This line makes no doggone sense to Abby.  Could the Fighting Illini get the old dead cat bounce?  Lovie Smith is loved no more in Champaign.  Abby has a strong dislike for cats dead or alive, but you have to pick one.  Take the Nittany Lions.  Two bones.
  6. Clemson -10 1/2 v Notre Dame – This line screams “take ND.”  In the rematch, much is at stake for the Tigers.   A late cover it is.   One bone.  If you’re looking for value in the game ND on the ML is +300.

Texas A&M has a lot to play for v Tennessee Saturday.  A Clemson loss would put them in the final four.  THE has a lot to play for v Northwestern in the Big 10 Championship.  A win likely will put them in the final four.  On a hunch, bet both Tennessee plus 14 and 1/2 and under 56 and 1/2 in the Northwestern v. THE game.  Abby expects the Aggies to win but not cover.  She also expects THE to work Northwestern, but not over the total.   These are two separate hunch bets.

Woof!

 

Fourth and Long

Posted on by boom booms room staff

When the NFL calendar turns to mid-December the season is all but lost for those that have lost way more often than they have won.  Desperation, despair, depression, and disgust are all prevalent on the teams that won’t be present during the playoffs.  It’s fourth and very long.  We sample five Hail Marys and the like below.

  1. Texan’s safety Justin Reid is done for the season after suffering a hand injury in Sunday’s 36-7 loss to the Chicago Bears, a source confirmed to ESPN on Monday.  Their number one cornerback Bradley Roby was suspended for the final five games of the season for violating the NFL’s policy on performance-enhancing substances. Cornerback Gareon Conley has been on injured reserve all season, and they were without cornerbacks Phillip Gaines and rookie John Reid because of injuries.   When a secondary can make Mitch Trubisky look good you’ve got problems.  And, the Texans at 4-9 have plenty of problems.
  2. As he prepares for the final three games of the season — and perhaps his New York Jets career — Sam Darnold said Monday that he still envisions himself as the franchise’s long-term solution at quarterback.  Of course, he does.  His agent told him to say just that.  The 0-13 Jets envision yet another fresh start.  And, it’s one without Darnold at QB and Gase as the head coach.
  3.  Gardner Minshew is back as the Jacksonville Jaguars’ starting quarterback.The Jaguars (1-12) have lost 12 games in a row, and coach Doug Marrone said he’s going to do whatever it takes to snap that streak and win the remaining three games.  Pride is good, isn’t it?  Minshew got plenty of praise at the end of last year and the first game of this one.  In between that, he hasn’t gotten much.  Mike Glennon and Jake Luton have started all of the games in between.  Who and who?
  4. The Eagles have a 109 million dollar problem.  They benched quarterback Carson Wentz last week after his season-long struggles. Jalen Hurts ran for over one hundred yards in his first career start and threw well enough to beat a very good New Orleans defense to earn a second start over the $109 million dollar man. Wentz is a former first-round pick and rumors have it that he’s been disenfranchised with the franchise ever since they chose Hurts in round two this past spring.  Should we say that the move they made hurts his feelings?  Ahem.
  5.  And, how ’bout dem Cowboys?  On a day when Stephen Jones said head coach Mike McCarthy will return in 2021, defensive coordinator Mike Nolan said he has not given thought to his future as the Cowboys’ defense has struggled this season, allowing the most points and rushing yards in the NFL so far. “I just take it a day at a time anyway,” he said. “I’d prefer not to answer the question just because it’s not what’s on my mind.”  Picking Cee Dee Lamb in round one looks like that Cadillac in the driveway when you needed a few Ford trucks upfront on D.   Steve and Jerry got caught up trying to keep up with the Joneses when the defensive side of the ball was in great need.  Now, Nolan will be the sacrificial lamb for the pick of Lamb and other personnel moves gone wrong for the franchise.  Remember, in Dallas, the Joneses are never wrong.

The good news for most of the above is that they’ll be put out of their misery in a few short weeks.

The bad news for future picks for some of the teams above is that the endless cycle of mediocrity will continue.

What’s In a Name?

Posted on by boom booms room staff

“That which we call a rose by any other name would smell as sweet.”

The MLB Cleveland baseball franchise had trouble picking a sweet nickname that would endear them to their fanbase at the outset of its now 120-year run.

Born in 1901 they were named the Cleveland Blues.  The expansion team that year gave their followers the blues finishing 54-82-2 (no lights and train schedules were to blame for tie games back then).

Just a year later in 1902, they changed to the Cleveland Bronchos.  What’s with the letter “H” you ask?  Way back when “broncos” was spelled “bronchos.”  Who knew?  The fans did, and apparently, this wasn’t the answer for them either.  It lasted one season as well.

Just a year later in 1903, they changed to the Naps.  What’s in the name Naps?  Napoleon Lajoie arrived in Cleveland on June 4 and was an immediate hit, drawing 10,000 fans to League Park. Soon afterward, he was named team captain, and in 1903 the team was renamed the Cleveland Napoleons (soon shortened to Naps) after a newspaper conducted a write-in contest.

The Naps nickname lasted from 1903 till 1914.  A dreadful season in  ’14 put the Nap nickname to bed (see what we did there?) for eternity.

Since 1915 and for 95 seasons and counting the franchise has been known as the Cleveland Indians.  They’ve won exactly 51% of their 16,482 games, 6 pennants, and two World Series.

Seems like they’ve been average at best for a long time.  And, they’ve been Indians for a long time as well.

But no more.  Well, technically they will be for one more season.

Amid accusations that “Indians” is racist, the organization is expected to announce the change this week, sources said, continuing a years-long process in which it abandoned its Chief Wahoo logo and committed to exploring a new nickname, as well.

The upcoming season of 2021 is expected to be a transition from the old to the new name. You have just 12 short months to get your Indians $125 replica jersey before the new name ones retail for $135.   Perhaps they could follow the NFL’s Washington Football Team lead and identify as the Cleveland Baseball Team for a year?

At the intersection of Brand Name Blvd. and Politically Correct Circle, the train known as Cancel Culture chugged through.  So for about 96 years being known as “Indians” was good, but now, it’s bad.

“This is the culmination of decades of work,” the Oneida Nation of New York, which led the Change the Mascot Movement, said in a statement to ESPN. “Groups like the National Congress of American Indians (it’s ok for them) passed resolutions for decades on this, social science has made clear these names are harmful and Cleveland got out in front of it and they’re leading, and rather than having this hanging over their heads, they’re charting a new path.”

They’re leading says Oneida Nation!  Not really.

What took them so long?  Well, they last won a World Series in 1948, or 72 years and counting. Good things come to those who wait.

They’re following.  They always have.

They’ve been napping for over a century actually.

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Yr 3, Wk 12

Posted on by boom booms room staff

Last week Abby won just a (kibbles and) bit more than she lost. Any week that’s a plus week versus Vegas is, well, a plus week versus Vegas.

For the season wins number 29, losses 30, and ties one.  Bones won number 45, while those given back are 38.  The hunch bet finally climbed out of a season-long backyard dug hole and stands at 4 up and 4 down.

Isn’t it so cancel culture 2020 that false positives, positives, and contact tracing are canceling plenty of games as well?  Jim Harbaugh is happy about that this week.  He would have been worked over by THE lickety-split.

Next week, Abby’s going to kick in a few NFL games for good measure as well as the NCAA games will be few and far between.   Now, to the picks.

  1. Arizona St. at Arizona -11 and 1/2 – Kevin Sumlin will saddle up and ride out of Tuscon right after this one with all of his money in bags.  The sheriff (AD) will see to it.  He’s done zero there and made a cool 9 million.  But, we think they can keep it close enough in a loss to the Sun Devils.  Home dog number one of the week.  It’s Abby’s Friday night special.  One bone.
  2. Coastal Carolina at Troy + 13 and 1/2 – This is a classic letdown spot for the most upstart team in 2020.  Troy usually plays well at home.  Home dog number two of the week.  Two bones.
  3. Stanford at Oregon St +3 – Stanford has been dreadful against the spread this year.  Oregon St has been feisty this year.  It feels like they are playing with purpose each week.  Home dog number three on the week.  Two bones.
  4. Houston ML at Memphis – The Cougars have hammered bad teams and been hammered by good ones.  Memphis falls somewhere in between.  For the value of a 2 to 1 money line bet on a five-point underdog, Abby likes the spot enough.  One bone to win two bones.
  5. LSU at Florida under 68 and 1/2 – The lost season continues for LSU.  Another week and another starter opts out.  Florida has an offense that lights up scoreboards.  These two programs don’t like each other and Florida will want some revenge from LSU’s big win last year.  LSU won’t score 24.  And Florida won’t score 44.  Two bones.

The last time Army hosted the Navy at West Point was during WWII.  On a hunch, we think that they won’t be good hosts.  As Lee Corso says weekly (even when the two teams aren’t playing)  Go Army, Beat Navy!  Take Army -7.

Woof!

 

O? Or Neaux?

Posted on by boom booms room staff

Just last week we wrote about the perennial winning culture of the Pittsburgh Steelers, the perennial losing culture of the Detroit Lions, why they are who they are, and the chasm of difference in their on-field results.  It is titled Lions, Turkeys, and Culture.  Today we add Tigers to that list.

After Alabama dismantled LSU 55-17 last Saturday, we received a few inquiries from some of our VIP subscribers asking how the dramatic fall from the penthouse to the outhouse could be so severe and so swift in Baton Rouge.   So, unlike Coach Ed Orgeron we decided to listen to “what’s important now”  to our loyal fans and sent one of our best BBR investigative reporters to Baton Rouge to get answers.

LSU won it all last year by winning every one of its 15 games.  Individual awards, like Heisman trophies, and group awards, like the Joe Moore Award for the best offensive line, were collected like the marbles you had in your youth.  This year LSU has three wins against South Carolina, Vanderbilt, and Arkansas.  Their combined record is 5-22.  They have five losses.  The point total differential is 222-110 or an average beatdown of 44-22 in those games.

So, what happened and why so quickly?

As is usual in such a fall there is no one answer, but a multitude of them.  And, the collective weight of them gained steam like a snowball down a hill.  The culture went from envious to toxic.

First, LSU lost five players who were drafted in the first round of the NFL draft.  No one, not even Bama can replace that talent in the next year.  Sure, there are four and five-star talents waiting in the wings, but that doesn’t make them first-round talents.  Fourteen players in all were drafted, an all-time team high mark.

Second, almost half of the 14 were early declarations.  What better time to test the market when you’ve proven your worth.  You don’t go up from 15-0, you only go down.  This makes the 2020 edition short on experienced talent.  Stated differently, most of the best juniors are gone.

Three of the best that remained opted out prior to the season.  One, Ja’Marr Chase, will go in the first round as likely the second wideout taken after Bama’s Devonta Smith.  Know where Smith grew up?  Louisiana, but we digress.

Seven more have opted out along the way in the year of the COVID-19. Three of them will get drafted, and one of them will also go in the first round.

As the talent moved on so did the offensive co-coordinator Joe Brady to the NFL and the defensive coordinator Dave Aranda to the head coaching position at Baylor.  They were replaced by Scott Lineham and Bo Pelini respectively.  No disrespect, but the two fifty-something-year-old hires have lost a bit off of their fastballs.

All of the above was occurring while America burned during the summer of discontent.  Ed Orgeron was praised by President Trump during a speech or three.  Coach O, as is his right, returned the compliment.

Did this sit well with the team?  No.  They decided to peacefully march across campus, as is their right, calling for an end to police brutality.  Who did they not invite or alert?  Coach O.  The march ended in the president of the university’s office.  Yes, it did.  The president called a dumbfounded Orgeron who hurried to the office.

Afterward, a clearly caught off guard Orgeron said that he had learned a lot in listening to his players in the president’s office.  Afterward, he privately admonished them for not including him on the front end of such a public display.  This was much to the dismay of the players.

All of this has taken place while players have to isolate as a team to stay healthy, then isolate as an individual if they don’t stay healthy.  The weight of it all feels like the aforementioned snowball.  The spirit of the team reaches new lows weekly.

The 2020 season was a mere 1 and 1/2 games old when LSU starting quarterback Myles Brennan, an impressive redshirt junior went down and now is out for the season.  In his place is an 18-year-old true freshman without the benefit of spring practice nor much fall prep.  On the road in the SEC a “rookie” often looks like a deer caught in the headlights in the deep south.

So where to from here?  The LSU Athletic Department is accused of mishandling nine Title IX filings alleging coverup or negligence in sexual battery, domestic violence, and worse matters.  Most are alleged to have occurred by former football team members and possibly five while Ed O has been the head coach.  Internal investigations are ongoing.  It could be all of the cover AD Scott Woodward needs to lower the boom on Coach O just one year removed from on-field perfection.  It’s doubtful, but it’s possible.

Short of that, O needs to jolt his coaching staff to its core.  Good old boys need to be bought out or outright fired.  Some can’t coach.  Some can’t recruit.   Does LSU have the cash in the pandemic year revenue shortfall to clear out several?  The boosters do, but are they buying in more so than the team has?

Experienced talent is lacking v. historical norms, but two back to back top-five recruiting classes, one on campus, and one about to be signed net week will help greatly.  In Louisiana lots of four-star and a few five-star players are never too many mile markers away from Baton Rouge.

And, if he survives as is expected, Orgeron needs to take a deep look in the self-reflection mirror.

An incredible championship run likely bought him some time (one more year) to fix the many blemishes.  But trying to hide them with makeup doesn’t work well in the heat and humidity that south Louisiana is infamous for.

His often-repeated mantra of “One Team, One Heartbeat” is anything but.