NFL

Two Coaches, Four Thoughts, Six Bets, A Dollar

Posted on by boom booms room staff

Today concludes our Super Bowl series of posts.   We’ve examined good and bad, winning and losing, and coaching and quarterbacking.  We have a few random thoughts to share and speculate upon prior to the big game.  You can think of them as Ten Piece Nuggets (and get three free) just presented differently.

Two Head Coaches

Two head coaches that made the short list, but not the final list in our top five countdown were Chuck Noll and Vince Lombardi.  Noll went 4-0 in SB’s while Lombardi won the first two SB’s and three NFL championships prior to their being a “Super Bowl.”   But a deeper dive versus Gibbs, Walsh, Landry, Shula, and Belichick exposed just a few shortcomings.

1.  Noll won four Super Bowls in a six-year window and went to and deep into the playoffs eight straight years.  Slice that however you wish and its darn impressive.

Did he benefit greatly by a Steeler organization that had multiple home run drafts back to back to back?  Pitt’s first round  pick in Noll’s year one was Joe Greene, who went on to become a perennial All-Pro and anchor the defensive line. During the next few years, the Steelers drafted quarterback Terry Bradshaw (Louisiana Tech) and running back Franco Harris (Penn State) as round one picks. In the 1974 draft, the Steelers achieved a level of drafting success never seen before or since, when they selected four future Hall of Fame players with their first five picks: wide receivers Lynn Swann and John Stallworth, middle linebacker Jack Lambert, and center Mike Webster. To this day, no other draft by any team has included more than two future Hall of Famers. Back then coaches didn’t have the draft day influence that they have today.  Did Noll make Stallworth, Swann, Bradshaw, Greene, Ham, Harris, and Webster?  Or was it vice versa?

His career win percentage was 57%, good, but shy of real good.  His last twelve years at the helm show 93 victories and 91 defeats and only two playoff victories.

2.  Lombardi was so good that his legend is forever cemented into NFL lore.  They named the Super Bowl trophy after him.  His teams won the first two Super Bowls played.  In nine cold Green Bay years he won 96, lost 34, and tied 6.  His playoff record is a great 9-1.  The team he took over had finished 1958 at a league worst 1-10-1.  His first year of meticulous prep, attention to detail, and demand for excellence turned them into a 7-5 club.  As a side note, there was no free agency back then.

The famous Packer Sweep, a real play innovation of its time, was diagrammed many times over on the chalk board and ran even more in practice.  “You cannot stop perfection.”

Unfortunately his health gave way at an early age curtailing his career and limiting his lifetime statistics when measured against others.  But in a shorter window than others had, none were better at winning nor getting more out of his players.

Four Thoughts

1.  The NFL is getting worked over for the blown non calls and incorrect calls in the two Conference Championship Games.  And, the abuse is well deserved.  Complicated rules, additional rules, and incessant video replay are bad enough.  Add to that fact that the NFL hand-picked the two crews that worked the two games and missed or made a handful of game changing bad calls and you have what you have-a mess.

2.  Speaking of a mess, what the hell happened in Pittsburgh?  Arguably the game’s best WR and a great QB cannot even practice together suddenly.  Pittsburgh’s front office puts up with little to nothing.  Ask Le’Veon Bell if you need proof.  If Antonio Brown hasn’t posted his home on Zillow yet one wonders what he is waiting for.

3.  The NFL hype machine(one of the best in the world) will go dark for a week after the Super Bowl, then will start pumping the NFL Combine held annually in Indianapolis.  How long is it before they start shopping the event to other cities like they did the draft?  Tickets, tickets, who needs tickets?

4.  If you haven’t heard, numerous New Orleans bars are showing the 2009 Saints SB victory this Sunday instead of Super Bowl LIII.  Our guess is that the turnout will be great.  Super Bowl LIII is now referred to as Super Bowl LIE in NOLA.  Laissez les bon temps roulier.

Six Bets

BBR never shies from a wager or six.  Below are some prop bets for fun and game action as well.

1.  Give us tails on the coin toss for  -105.   Why?  Why do you even ask?

2.  We’ll take the Rams scoring first for -115.  Brandin Cooks has a score to settle so to speak.

3.  Give us over 49.5 yards on the longest TD scored for -110.  See point two above.

4.  We’ll take -300 that no extra point is missed.  Though NE scares us a bit.

5.  Give us over 56.5 on the total points scored for -110.  Under has been our favorite since 12/1.  This one, however, is indoors and the carpet is warm.

6.  And, drum roll please, we like the Rams on the money line for +120.  Why?  Why not?

A Dollar

We are so confident in our bets above that we wagered a George Washington on each and every one of them.

 

 

Super (Bowl)Head Coach Countdown II

Posted on by boom booms room staff

Yesterday part six of our Super Bowl worst, best, first, and last series rolled on.  Super Bowl winners come in different shapes and sizes, but they usually have two things in common.  One, they have a real good or great coach.  And two, they have a real good or great quarterback.

We continue to examine those very questions in part seven of our series.   Today we finish our attempt to answer the question “who is the best head coach to win a Super Bowl?”   Yesterday we chose Joe Gibbs at no. 5 and Bill Walsh at no. 4.  Clearly the choices are nothing but a who’s who of head coaching.  Let the subjectivity begin.

Criteria, in no particular order, that we feel is mandatory to be considered follows.

  1.  Longevity in the league– Longevity usually equates to demand for your ability.  Health reasons were considered.
  2.  Won/loss record– Bill Parcells once famously said ” at the end of the year you are what your record says you are.”
  3.  Pregame and in-game strategy– You have to have a plan of attack and you have to adjust to your opponents plan of attack.
  4.  Maximizing your team’s ability– Coaches eventually have 53 players to work with.  Did they get all that they could out of the group?
  5. Recognizing talent and using it– Coaches today have more say in personnel than yesterday.  Those that do have to obtain value (if FA cheaper than performance, if drafted better than round, if UDFA seeing something that others do not in a player).
  6. Super Bowl wins and appearances You are ultimately judged by getting your team to the biggest game of all and taking home the trophy.

We suspect that when objectivity (1,2,and 6 above) and subjectivity(3,4, and 5 above) cross paths the task of definitively ranking coaches is not possible.  When art meets science the eye and the mind don’t always agree.   Regardless, we press on.  Today we countdown nos. 3, 2, and 1.  Also, there are many who deserve mention, honorable mention at that.  But, we chose to skip those for now to further the discussion.   Let the disagreement begin.

3.  Tom Landry- The ever impeccably dressed leader Landry coached for 29 NFL seasons all with the Dallas Cowboys.  One guesses if you looked up the word “Institution” in Funk and Wagner that Tom’s picture (with his hat of course) might be next to the word.  Two hundred and fifty regular season wins, 36 playoff wins, five SB appearances, and two Lombardi Trophies makes his body of work hard to describe.

Landry coached good players and made them better.  Walt Garrison comes to mind.  He coached great players and helped them get enshrined.  Bob Lilly, Roger Staubach, Tony Dorsett, Mel Renfro and many, many others come to mind.  His culture of out working and out thinking others created a sustainable winning expectation.  After all you were a Cowboy.   Landry encouraged the organization to look at the draft and the pool of players differently than others.  Gil Brandt his GM masterfully assembled the roster accordingly.  The Cowboys dug deep to find talent in undrafted free agency as well as lesser scouted conferences like the SWAC.

He won by strategically putting his offense, defense, and special teams in familiar spots from meticulous preparation. Landry is known as the “inventor of the 4-3 defense” as he was the first to take a lineman out and add a middle linebacker.   Landry also invented and popularized the use of keys (analyzing offensive tendencies) to determine what the offense might do.

2.  Don Shula- It’s hard to top Landry’s resume’ but Shula did.  He was an NFL head coach for 33 seasons, 26 with the Miami Dolphins and seven with the Baltimore Colts.  He won 328 games in all with an amazing 67.7 win percentage.  He too won 36 playoff games.  One Colt and five Dolphin SB appearances later gave Shula two Lombardi trophies.

Shula changed his coaching strategy as his personnel changed. His Super Bowl teams in 1971,2,3, and 1982 were keyed by a run-first offensive strategy and a dominating defense. In 1983, shortly after losing Super Bowl XVII to the Washington Redskins, the Dolphins drafted quarterback Dan Marino out of the University of Pittsburgh. Marino won the starting job halfway through the 1983 regular season, and by 1984, the Dolphins were back in the Super Bowl, due largely to Marino’s record 5,084 yards through the air.

Shula’s Miami teams were known for great offensive lines (Larry Little, Jim Langer, and Bob Kuechenberg), strong running games (Larry Csonka, Jim Kiick, and Mercury Morris), solid quarterbacking (by Bob Griese and Earl Morrall), excellent receivers (Paul Warfield)and a defense that worked as a cohesive unit. The Dolphins were known as “The No-Name Defense”, though they had few good to great players, including MLB Nick Buoniconti.

In 1972, the Dolphins were unbeaten in the regular season, 14–0–0. They swept the playoffs and finished 17–0–0.  They remain the only team in the modern era to do so.

1.  Bill Belichick – Is there really any doubt as to who is the most successful coach of all time?  There really isn’t.  But, “most successful” and “best” may not be exactly the same.  With Belichick we think it is the same.  What is not debatable is 1) on Sunday he will be coaching in the SB for the ninth time which is three more than Shula’s six, and 2) he can put further distance in the win column between himself (five now and maybe six soon) and Chuck Noll who has four.

In 24 years as head coach (5 Cleveland and 19 New England) the irascible one has won 261 regular and 30 post season games.  That’s a 68% win percentage overall and 74% in NE alone.  Seventy four percent equates to an average season being 12-4.  There’s nothing average about that!

Belichick is a grand master at finding a opponent’s weakness and exploiting it.  A defensive side of the ball head coach with perhaps the GOAT QB in Tom Brady is the perfect combo for long term success.  This is especially true with the rules the league has put in place in the last 15 years to protect QB’s.

His coaching tree grows significantly each offseason.  Eight of his former assistants to date have become NFL head coaches.  Seven have become NCAA head coaches, one of which is Nick Saban.

But, perhaps his most significant measure of success is one that is actually hard to measure.  How good has the Patriots personnel (outside of Tom Brady, which is a big “outside of”) been during his incredible run?  Current and future Hall of Famers are few.  Their best RB has been?  WR?  LB?  DL?  You get the picture.  There have been many, many good to real good ones no doubt.  Perhaps Belichick has the key to making the whole far greater that the sum of the individual parts.

Tomorrow we briefly examine two who were strongly considered for the final five, but ultimately left out.

 

 

 

Super (Bowl) Head Coach Countdown

Posted on by boom booms room staff

Yesterday part five of our Super Bowl worst, best, first, and last series rolled on.  We offered a fun trivia quiz about coaches in the big game.

Super Bowl winners come in different shapes and sizes, but they usually have two things in common.  One, they have a real good or great coach.  And two, they have a real good or great quarterback.

We continue to examine those very questions in part six of our series.  Today we begin to attempt to answer the question “who is the best head coach to win a Super Bowl?”   Clearly the choices are nothing but a who’s who of head coaching.  Let the subjectivity begin.

Criteria, in no particular order, that we feel is mandatory to be considered follows.

  1.  Longevity in the league– Longevity usually equates to demand for your ability.  Health reasons were considered.
  2.  Won/loss record– Bill Parcells once famously said ” at the end of the year you are what your record says you are.”
  3.  Pregame and in-game strategy– You have to have a plan of attack and you have to adjust to your opponents plan of attack.
  4.  Maximizing your team’s ability– Coaches eventually have 53 players to work with.  Did they get all that they could out of the group?
  5. Recognizing talent and using it– Coaches today have more say in personnel than yesterday.  Those that do have to obtain value (if FA cheaper than performance, if drafted better than round, if UDFA seeing something that others do not in a player).
  6. Super Bowl wins and appearances- You are ultimately judged by getting your team to the biggest game of all and taking home the trophy.

We suspect that when objectivity (1,2,and 6 above) and subjectivity(3,4, and 5 above) cross paths the task of definitively ranking coaches is not possible.  When art meets science the eye and the mind don’t always agree.   Regardless, we press on.  Today we give you our fifth and fourth best.  Tomorrow we get to nos. 3, 2, and 1.  Also, there are many who deserve mention, honorable mention at that.  But, we chose to skip those for now to further the discussion.   Let the disagreement begin.

5.  Joe Gibbs- Gibbs won 154 regular season games in two head coaching stretches covering 16 NFL seasons all with the Washington Redskins.  An impressive four SB appearances resulted in three Lombardi Trophies.   Gibbs’ teams could score a lot, play stiff defense, and close out games.

Although Gibbs helped craft a passing-oriented attack during his time in San Diego as an OC, his Redskins teams were known to incorporate a smash-mouth, down hill rushing heavy attack.   By building a strong offensive line (“The Hogs”) Gibbs’ teams controlled the line of scrimmage, allowing workhorse running backs such as John Riggins, George Rogers, and Earnest Byner to power the ground game. Gibbs added a deep passing attack to this which complemented the ground game. Gibbs’ offense was aided during his tenure by aggressive defensive units under the direction of defensive coordinator Richie Petitbon.

Gibbs’ system and scheme were robust enough to be successful without a Hall-of-Fame-caliber quarterback at the helm. The Redskins’ Super Bowl victories were won featuring Joe Theismann, Doug Williams, and Mark Rypien—capable players who were complimentary parts.

Gibbs is credited with inventing the single back, double or triple tight end set. He used it to slow down Hall of Fame linebacker Lawrence Taylor, realizing that to successfully block him with just a running back was all but impossible.   Gibbs was also credited for creating the Trips formation by stacking three wide receivers to one side. He added confusing shifting and motions to his offenses to further the complexity. The formations created defensive confusion. He is also one of a few coaches that used the H-back position prominently in his offense.

From 1981 to 1992 he lead the Skins to a 124-60 record.  That win percentage would rank fourth all time.  His second stint, nearly a decade removed from the game and at the begging of Daniel Snyder, finished 30-34.

 

4.  Bill Walsh- From 1979 to 1989 no one was better than the former Stanford coach.  Walsh, with an assist from Joe Montana, won three Super Bowls in ten seasons while making seven playoff runs.  His regular season winning percentage was a real good, but not great, 60%.  However, he inherited a team and an organization that was void of talent, leadership, and a winning culture.  His first two teams were 2-14, and 6-10 as the turnaround began.  Therefore, in his final eight years the San Fransisco 49ers record averaged an incredible 13 wins against three losses.  His final season(1988) and the Super Bowl win(1989) was followed by the team winning it all yet again under his disciple George Seifert in 1990.

Perhaps the eye Walsh had for on field talent was only surpassed by the eye he had for coaching excellence.  His coaching tree

Bill Walsh Coaching Tree.svg

is alive and well even today and is second to no one who came before or after.

Did Joe Montana have physical talent?  Yes.  But the cerebral Montana bought into Walsh’s ever evolving “west coast offense.”  Suddenly defenses needed to cover the total breadth and length of the field as Walsh would run when you thought he would throw it and throw it when you thought he would run it.  His formations and iterations thereof created mismatches the field over.  All of his offensive skill positions could catch and run afterwards putting enormous pressure on all 11 defensive players to properly cover their assignments.

Only Walsh’s relatively early retirement (10 years as a HC), hence shorter body of work, kept him from being listed higher.

Tomorrow we press on with our choices.  These five men are the some of the very best of the all time best.

 

 

Super Bowl Head Coach Trivia Time

Posted on by boom booms room staff

Friday part four of our Super Bowl worst, best, first, and last series rolled on.  We offered our opinion on who the worst head coaches were to win a Super Bowl.  Gary Kubiak took home first place.  Unfortunately, first meant worst for the eight year Texan and two-year Bronco’s head coach.  After stepping away from the game in 2018 Kubiak will be back in 2019 as the OC in Minnesota.

Super Bowl winners come in different shapes and sizes, but they usually have two things in common.  One, they have a real good or great coach.  And two, they have a real good or great quarterback.  There are outliers of course.  So, who might be those outliers?

We were going to continue to examine those very questions in part five of our series of our series.  But, today rather than examine the question “who is the best head coach to win a Super Bowl?”  we offer a fun trivia quiz about the quarterbacks and coaches in the big game.  The best coaches to ever coach in the big game heads your way tomorrow.   Enjoy the audible.  The answers are below Bill Belichick and yet another trophy hoist and to avoid the urge to peak.

  1.  Five coaches have coached in exactly four Super Bowls.  Three have lost all four.  Two of them lost all four with the same team.  Who were they?
  2. Another coach lost four but accomplished this with two teams.  Who was he and what teams did he coach?
  3. Only one coach appeared in four games and won the Vince Lombardi trophy in all four appearances.  Who is he?
  4. Bill Belichick will be coaching this Sunday for an amazing 9th time easily the most ever appearances and counting.  Who has the second most appearances?
  5. Only four coaches have won more than two Super Bowls.  Belichick is one.  Name the other three.
  6. Marv Levy, with four consecutive appearances leads that category.  Only one head coach has worked in three straight.  Who?
  7. (extra point) Twelve coaches have been to two big games.  All won at least once except one who went 0-2.  His losses were 10 years apart and he brought a different team to each.  Who?

 

 

The Answers

  1.  Marv Levy went 0-4 with the Bills in four consecutive years amazingly from 1991-4.  Bud Grant lost all with the Vikings in 1970,4,5,and 7.
  2. Dan Reeves lost three with the Broncos in 1987,8, and 1990.  He coached the Falcons in 1999 to a 34-19 loss to the Falcons.
  3. Chuck Noll led the Steel Curtain and Terry Bradshaw to four appearances and four wins in 1975,6,9, and 1980.
  4. Don Shula won two and lost four.  Joe Willie and Weeb beat his Colts in SB III.  He went on to five Dolphins appearances winning two and losing three.
  5. The previously mentioned Chuck Noll won four, sneaky Joe Gibbs won three, and the great Bill Walsh won three.
  6. If you guessed Bill Belichick we understand.  However, Don Shula lost SB VI to Tom Landry and the Cowboys, then won back to back in 1973 (the undefeated year) and 1974 over Bud Grant’s Vikings.
  7. John Fox and the Carolina Panthers lost to NE in 2004.  He took the Broncos to SB XLVIII ten years later and lost to Pete Carroll’s Seahawks  in a beat down 43-8.

 

 

Super Bowl Jumbo Shrimp.

Posted on by boom booms room staff

Yesterday part three of our Super Bowl worst, best, first, and last series rolled on.  We offered our opinion on who the worst quarterbacks were to appear or lose a Super Bowl.  David Woodley took home first place.  Unfortunately, first meant worst for the former LSU hero.

Super Bowl winners come in different shapes and sizes, but they usually have two things in common.  One, they have a real good or great coach.  And two, they have a real good or great quarterback.  There are outliers of course.  So, who might be those outliers?

We continue to examine those very questions in part three of our series.  Today we examine the question “who is the worst head coach to win a Super Bowl?”  Our take from bad to worse is below.

Our NFL only criteria includes longevity, w-l percentage, playoff appearances, playoff wins, and coaches hired that went on to great success in the league.  Like the previous quarterbacks that we have selected, we note that these are men who have risen to the very top of their profession.  So, we are calling them the worst of the best really.

This was a tough task.  Undeterred we march on.  We decided on four for very different and difficult reasons.   Drum roll please.

4.  Don McCafferty- The HC that no one remembers or heard of led the Baltimore Colts to 16-13 win of Tom Landry and the Cowboys in SB V in 1971. It was an error filled forgettable game.   It was his first year as a HC replacing Don Shula who left the Baltimore to go south to Miami.  In his third year he refused to bench Johnny Unitas and was fired as a result.  He signed on to coach the Detroit Lions in 1973.  After one year there he dropped dead of a heart attack while mowing his lawn.

3.  Brian Billick- After getting much credit as an OC at Minnesota Billick took over the HC reins for the Baltimore Ravens in 1999.  Nine years later he amassed an 80-64 regular season record.  He rode DC Marvin Lewis and Mike Nolan’s historically great defenses,

led by Ray Lewis, as his offenses were annually anemic.  This included the 4 game playoff run that culminated in the SB XXXV victory in 2001. His other eight seasons ended in three playoff berths.  His one-dimensional teams went one and one in one and one and done in the other two.  His coaching tree was solid.  Rex Ryan and Mike Singletary are two other notable ones.

2.  Weeb Ewbank- When the NY Jets and Joe Willie Namath shocked the football world-beating the heavily favored Baltimore Colts(Don Shula again) in SB III in 1969, Wilbur Charles “Weeb” Ewbank rode off on his players shoulders crew cut hair and all.  Weeb was a head coach for 20 years.  The last 11 were with the J-E-T-S.  In eight of those 11 his teams were .500 or less and in total were 71-77.  His total won loss record was one above .500 at 130-129-7.  His teams only totaled 5 playoff games.  Although in fairness to Wilbur Charles his Baltimore Colts head coaching days prior to the Jets included two one game championships when there weren’t really any playoffs. Chuck Knox and Buddy Ryan both toiled under Weeb.

1.  Gary Kubiak- In 10 NFL seasons (8 Texans, 2 Broncos) Kube’s teams appeared in the playoffs only three times.  Two Texan teams went 1-1 and done.  The 3-0 record with the SB winning Broncos and Peyton Manning was his only deep run.  His teams won 82 regular season games and lost 75.  Multiple medical maladies forced him to resign in 2016.  His coaching tree includes Mike Sherman, Wade Phillips, Ray Rhodes and a few other retreads.  He will resume coaching as OC in Minnesota in 2019.  Perhaps his head coaching days are done.

Head coaching a team to a Super Bowl triumph and being called one of the worst is an oxymoron like the phrase “jumbo shrimp.”   But they are our “only choices” for the worst of the best of the “civil war” known as the Super Bowl.

 

 

 

 

Super Bowl Blind Squirrels.

Posted on by boom booms room staff

Yesterday part two of our Super Bowl worst, best, first, and last series rolled on.  We offered our opinion on who the worst quarterbacks were to win a Super Bowl.  Doug Williams took home first place.  Unfortunately first meant worst for the former Grambling St. hero.

Super Bowl winners come in different shapes and sizes, but they usually have two things in common.  One, they have a real good or great coach.  And two, they have a real good or great quarterback.  There are outliers of course.  So, who might be those outliers?

We continue to examine those very questions in part three of our series.  Today we examine the question “who is the worst quarterback to start and lose a Super Bowl?”  Our take from bad to worse is below.

The competition for this (dis)honor is surprisingly strong.  Honorable mentions and yellow spirit ribbons go to……..

…Billy Kilmer for being the most out of shape and for throwing more ducks than fly in south Louisiana in the fall.

…Chris Chandler for lasting 17 years in the league, but having seven different teams let him walk to the next one.

…Tony Eason who threw for a measly 11k yards in 9 years in the league and getting Super Bowl shuffled and pulverized by the 1986 Chicago Bears.

The envelopes for third to worst please.

3.  Vince Ferragamo- Ferragamo gave it his all v. Terry Bradshaw and the Pittsburgh Steelers in 1979 before losing 31-19.  The third round pick of the Rams, Ferragamo was 27-26 as a starter throwing for 11k yards in an otherwise undistinguished career.  He threw more interceptions, 91, than touchdowns, 76.  His career passer rating of 70.1 places him 151st all-time, just a hair ahead of the one and only Joey Harrington.  Whew.

2.  Rex Grossman- Grossman and the out manned Chicago Bears lost to Indianapolis in the 2006 Super Bowl.  Peyton Manning won his first of two SB’s in an otherwise forgettable contest.  For his career he was only 25-22 as a starter that somehow lasted 10 years in the league.  He too tossed more in his time to the other team, 60, than he threw for touchdowns to his own team, 56.  His career completion percentage was 55.2%.  Given that he played until 2012 when many helpful rules and protections are afforded QB’s makes that inaccuracy hard to believe.  Whew.  He must have carried a mean clipboard.

1. David Woodley-  Woodley was an 8th round pick by the Miami Dolphins in 1980 when the league still had 12 rounds.  He played for a brief 6 years in the NFL, only two as a starter, and compiled stats befitting of an 8th rounder.   A 53 percent completion percentage, 8k total passing yards, 48 tds, and 63 picks add up to a QB rating of 65.7.  Billy Joe Tolliver is two points better.  Woodley and his Dolphins lost to Joe Theisman’s Redskins in SB XVII 27-17.  Woodley, true to his NFL form,  was 4-17 for 80 yards and an interception in that contest. Whew.  Seventy six of those yards came on one pass play.  A short three years later Woodley retired from the NFL before the NFL could retire him.

As we stated yesterday, no NFL level quarterback is actually bad.  But, how these three found their way to a Super Bowl reminds us of the proverbial blind squirrel finding a runners up Super Bowl ring.   Or, something like that.

 

 

 

The Worst Finished First.

Posted on by boom booms room staff

Last week we wrote the following.

Should one or two slight upsets occur, Jared Goff and Tom Brady would lead either or both of the Rams and Patriots to the very lovely(ahem) and picturesque, beautiful Atlanta.  Therefore, regardless of the outcome of the games, a “franchise” quarterback will eventually lead his team to the podium to cherish the coveted Lombardi Trophy.  Brady and Brees are the old guard great qbs.  Goff and Mahomes are the up and coming ones.

Roger Goodell will (we hope and think) get booed loudly prior to the presentation.  But, we digress.

Super Bowl winners come in different shapes and sizes, but they usually have two things in common.  One, they have a real good or great coach.  And two, they have a real good or great quarterback.  There are outliers of course.  So, who might be those outliers?

We continue to examine those very questions in our run up to the Super Bowl features continuing today.  Today we examine the question “who is the worst quarterback to have won a Super Bowl?”  Our take from bad to worse is in reverse order below.

3.  (tie) Mark Rypien– Rypien led the Washington Redskins to a 37-24 SB win over the Buffalo Bills in 1991.  The sixth round pick by the Skins in 1986 started for only 5 years, won just 47 games, and completed a modest 56% of his career pass attempts.  His team bettered the Bills led by Jim Kelly who we selected as the third best QB to have played in but never won a Super Bowl.  His career passing rating is 78.9.  That’s 80th all-time for qb’s who have met the minimums to qualify.  He’s tied with Byron Leftwich.  Ouch.

3.  (tie) Jeff Hostetler– A real gamer Hostetler filled in for half of a season and the playoffs for Phil Simms.  He rode a dominate Bill Parcells defense to a 20-19 triumph over the Jim Kelly led Bills a year before Rypien did the same.  He won only 51 games as a starter(4 years) in his career and completed 58% of his passes.  He did get one trip to Hawaii for a Pro Bowl.  His 16k career yards ranks 136th just 100 yards ahead of one Rodney Peete. Ouch.

Ray Said Get Out of the Way!

2.  Trent Dilfer– Dilfer was a first round pick of the TB Buccaneers in 1994.  After moving to the Baltimore Ravens he won a ring with them punishing the New York Football Giants 34-7.  In the 4-0 playoff run that year he threw for only three touchdowns.  He basically stayed out-of-the-way of one of the most dominant defenses in NFL history led by Ray Lewis.  For his career Dilfer threw 129 interceptions v 113 touchdowns and completed only 56% of his attempts.  His 70.2 passer rating is 149th all time and ranks below Rex Grossman.  Ouch.

1.  Doug Williams- Williams also was a first round pick of the TB Buccaneers.  As a starter in his nine-year career he lost 42 and won only 38 games.  After TB he went to Washington and played lights out in SB XXI whipping John Elway and the Denver Broncos 42-10.  He threw 100 NFL TD’s against 93 picks.  His passer rating was a quite low 69.4.  His 49 percent career completion percentage held true to form in the 1987 playoff run to the SB as he completed 49% of those attempted as well.  It was a bit of a different era back then, but 49% is 49%.  Ouch.

No NFL level quarterback is bad.  But relatively speaking these four “bad ones” won the biggest game of them all.

Some how. Some way.

One Minute and Fifty Eight Seconds Left. Do You Make the Call to the Bullpen?

Posted on by boom booms room staff

In baseball, managers face the decision late in a game of when to pull pitchers and replace them with relievers.  One of three outcomes are possible.  If the starter and reliever get by unscathed the manager has succeeded.  If he waits too long and the starter falters he gets seconded guessed.  Fans sound off with “he should have gone with the reliever.”   If he pulls the starter before any real damage is done, but the reliever gets lit up he gets second guessed.  Fans sound off with “he should have stayed with the starter.”  None of the three outcomes are predictable to any certainty.

Similarly, in football, a head coach decides how to attack late in the game as well.  If you can score to go ahead, the “how” and “when” to do so can determine the final score.  In yesterday’s NFC Championship Game, Sean Payton faced this very dilemma.

If you live under a rock and/or don’t recall the moment, let’s reset the big stage under the bright lights.  The N.O. Saints had a first and 10 on the LA Rams 13 yard line.  The play that got them there was whistled dead with 1:58 to go in the fourth quarter.   That’s a TV timeout for the two-minute warning.  The score stood even at 20-20.  A very coveted berth in Super Bowl LIII was there for the taking.  The Rams had two timeouts remaining.

So, what is the surest outcome to gain that berth?  The surest would be to score on the game’s final play thereby eliminating any chance of comeback by the Rams by preventing them from touching the ball again.

But, with two timeouts and 1:58 left the only way to hold the ball and score on the aforementioned final play would require a first down.  Why?  It’s because the Rams would burn their timeouts immediately after first and second down assuming the Saints didn’t stop the clock themselves. Then, on third down, the clock would run till either a play on fourth down was run or the Saints called a timeout themselves.

Assume timeout number one at 1:53 and timeout number two at 1:48.  Third down would consume another five seconds to 1:43.  The 40 second clock could run down to one second, then the Saints would call a timeout.  That would leave 1:04 remaining.  A field goal could take four seconds and that would have left exactly one minute and no timeouts for the Rams.  This would give the Saints the lead by three, but not assure victory.  If they scored a touchdown on third down about 1:43 would remain.  This would give the Saints the lead by six(pending the point after) but more time for the Rams who would now need a touchdown to tie.

All of the above screams loudly again that the only sure way to win is to score on the final play and to do so would require a first down.

So, why did the Saints pass on first down in this scenario?  Payton gave Drew Brees the option to check into the quick slant to Michael Thomas and out of the run play called if the Rams showed blitz.  The Rams went to cover zero (no safeties, man on man, and all other defenders roaring to the ball carrier) run blitz.  Brees to Thomas this year had an 80% plus completion to target rate.  That’s almost as sure as a handoff to run clock.  But against cover zero it had a much better chance to gain yards than a run.  Remember, a first down almost assuredly wins the game.

Brees, shockingly, threw poorly and the ball landed at Thomas’ feet.  Bad call you say?  Remember the baseball manager?  There is no right answer to the play call because no outcome on first down unto itself determines the game.  It only tilts the odds from a bit to considerable.  If Thomas catches it and scores it’s considerably in the Saints favor.  An incomplete saves a timeout for the Rams, but little else.

Second down brought a predictable run and a timeout.  Bad call you say?  Remember the baseball manager?  If you wanted a run on first down you must have wanted a run on second down for the same reason as well.  Timeout Rams.

Third down and ten is now staring you in the face.  The run blitz on first down and the blow up of the second down run would have landed them in the same down and distance.  The difference was one saved timeout to this point for the Rams.  If you fail to get a first down now, a field goal hangs in the balance.  Would you have called a run here?  If so the Rams burn timeout number two and you kick.  That would have left them nearly 1:40 on the clock and no timeouts.  In the NFL with a kicker who was drilling warmup kicks from 65 yards(trust us on that one) 100 seconds is a long, long time.

Payton called a pass play.  Bad call you say?  Remember the baseball manager?  With the ball in the air a few outcomes were possible. A first down would have been the best.  A touchdown would have been super.  An incomplete pass would save a Ram’s timeout.  An interception was remote given the route, coverage, and ball placement.  Last but certainly not least, a pass interference penalty would have also given you a first down.  That’s the best outcome available and a sure chip shot field goal win would follow.

Payton, if asked, most assuredly would tell you that he played to win, not to not lose.  The word “conservative” is not in his dictionary.

Payton made the call.   The referee did not.

The field goal was good.  However, from that moment till overtime ended in the sudden death of the Saints, the Rams were better.

Remember the baseball manager?

 

 

 

Three Greats went Ohhhh for Eight.

Posted on by boom booms room staff

Way back on October 3rd we told the story of how Patrick Mahomes very nearly became a New Orleans Saint.  Because of an astute and aggressive draft day trade he became a Kansas City Chief instead.  The link provided tells that interesting story in case you had not yet become a boomboomsroom.com reader.

Fast forward to today, January 18th.  My, how the story has advanced.  It’s likely when the MVP voting is done that Mahomes will win the award and edge out Drew Brees in doing so.  It’ll be a one/two finish for sure.  But, the even bigger story is that each of them will quarterback their teams this weekend in the AFC and NFC Championship Games.   The winners head to the Super Bowl in lovely Atlanta.  KC and NO are each three point favorites to do just that.

Should one or two slight upsets occur, Jared Goff and Tom Brady would lead either or both of the Rams and Patriots to the very lovely(ahem) and picturesque, beautiful Atlanta.  Therefore, regardless of the outcome of the games, a “franchise” quarterback will eventually lead his team to the podium to cherish the coveted Lombardi Trophy.  Brady and Brees are the old guard great qbs.  Goff and Mahomes are the up and coming ones.

Roger Goodell will (we hope and think) get booed loudly prior to the presentation.  But, we digress.

Super Bowl winners come in different shapes and sizes, but they usually have two things in common.  One, they have a real good or great coach.  And two, they have a real good or great quarterback.  There are outliers of course.  So, who might be those outliers?

We will begin to examine those very questions in our run up to the Super Bowl features starting today.  We will continue with them by the middle of next week. Today we examine the question “who is the best quarterback to participate in, but not ever win, a Super Bowl?”  Our take in reverse order is below.

3. Jim Kelly– The only qb to ever lose four Super Bowls, and four straight in 1990-1993 at that, was a first year eligible NFL Hall of             Fame inductee.  His K-Gun offense in Buffalo was electric.  He threw for over 35,000 yards and 287 touchdowns in his NFL                     career after spending two years in the USFL amassing formidable stats there as well.

2. Fran Tarkington– A three-time SB loser, Tarkington played for 18 NFL seasons in what was a different era.  Quarterbacks                       weren’t nearly as protected as today.  The HOF inductee lead almost all career statistical QB measurements when he retired. He             threw for over 47,000 yards and 342 touchdowns playing for the Vikings at the outset and conclusion of his career.  A five year                 NY Giants stint was sandwiched in between.

  1. Dan Marino– Marino soared with his Dolphins all the way to the big show in just his second year and first as a full-time starter.  It was a one way ticket as he never returned. His ticket to Canton was well-earned though.  In 17 distinguished NFL seasons he went to the playoffs ten times. He threw for over 61,000 yards, and tossed 420 touchdowns.   All of that and a bevy of game, season, and career records make him the clear choice for the “best ever to appear but never win.”   Not bad for being the fifth QB drafted in a QB heavy, famous 1983 class.

Kelly, Tarkington, and Marino are three of the best.  Collectively they played in 46 NFL seasons.  They won 379 games.  They played in eight Super Bowls. They won none.

 

 

 

The NFL’s Seeds are Sown.

Posted on by boom booms room staff

The NFL rules committee reviews in painstaking detail all proposed changes to its game and its league once each year.  The definition of what a catch is, a fumble is, and what roughing the quarterback is has changed far too often for well-intentioned but misguided reasons.  Booth reviews became a necessity when the complexity of the rules rose exponentially.

However, one competitive rule that has not changed in many years is how playoff teams are seeded and how the resultant path to the Super Bowl paved.  We think that it’s the best format of any major sport and second place isn’t close.   Why?  We briefly touch on that in a few thoughts below.

  1. In each conference if you make it as a wild card you travel in week one of the playoffs to the two lower seeded (of the four) division champions.  You’re in, but your road is three games long and all three are away from home.  Advantage division champions.
  2. The survivors of wild card weekend travel to the one and two seeded team’s stadiums.  The lowest seed travels to the one seed, the other to the two seed.  Advantage one seed and two seed division champions.
  3. The one and two seeds have the wild card weekend off.  After five months of physical grind this is a very welcome respite. Big advantage one seed and two seed division champions.
  4. The highest remaining seed after the second weekend hosts the lower seed.  If the seeds hold this is the last advantage earned by the number one seeded division champ.

So what happened this past weekend?  Points three and four above is what happened.  The AFC and NFC top two seeds hosted and held serve in all four games.  Their success in the regular season earned them this leg up and they made good use of it.

On average three of the four home teams in the just completed division championship weekend win.  However, this year it was all four.  Many “experts” talked about how competitive the four visiting teams (Indianapolis, Dallas, Los Angeles (Chargers), and Philadelphia) would make those games.  Indy was done by halftime.  Dallas tried, but never climbed back in from a 13 point halftime deficit.  The Chargers were manhandled.  Only Philly was within a touchdown late in the fourth.

Visitors have tired legs.   Home teams have a week off to rejuvenate tired legs.  Speed kills on the football playing field.

Therefore, in the NFL every regular season game matters.  Maybe the committee will figure out what constitutes a catch one day.  Hopefully it will keep them so busy trying to figure that out that they will leave the seeding system and rewards of it exactly as is.

This coming weekend the best four teams in the NFL will decide who the best two teams in the NFL are.