Send in the Clowns!

Summer is usually when Hollywood releases their blockbuster movies.  You would not have known that yesterday.  The storylines spanned sports, life, and politics.  The drama was intense and the acting was on cue.   Lights, camera, and….. action!

In sports, the Boston Celtics portrayed the Washington Generals in scene one.  The Celtics acted like they were trying, but knew they were going to lose to the Harlem Globetrotters Milwaukee Bucks.  They did by a smooth 25 points.  The Washington DC based MLB Washington Nationals wanted in.  They did their best to mimic the Generals giving up six runs in the first two innings, never challenging, and losing 7-2 to the Milwaukee Brewers.  It was show time for both Milwaukee teams.

Washington DC itself then took the stage.  House Judiciary Chairman Jerrold Nadler, D-N.Y., declared a “constitutional crisis” on Wednesday after his committee voted to hold AG William Barr in contempt for defying a subpoena for Robert Mueller’s unredacted Russia report and documents.

“We’ve talked for a long time about approaching a constitutional crisis. We are now in it,” Nadler told the press on Wednesday. He indicated that the United States was at a critical time of testing whether it could stay a republic or transition into a tyrannical form government.  Dramatic indeed.  Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee stood stage left (appropriately) of Nadler as he spoke.  She nodded her head (appropriately) after each sentence.  The puppet strings from above were barely visible.  Later on MSNBC she reiterated that these contemptible White House acts were going to lead to a “Saturday Night Massacre.”  Perhaps Rep. SheJack can open for SNL soon.  “Live from New York, It’s Saturday Night Massacre!”

Just off Broadway the New York Times wanted in the play.  They mic dropped a story that showed Donald Trump lost millions of dollars in the late eighties and early nineties in the business world, and showed copies of his somehow acquired tax returns to prove it.  This really was a rerun of a remake.  But if it sells papers, so be it.  Extra, extra!

Fox News “from the left” contributor Juan Williams was live on camera to comment.  Fox casts Williams as their own Washington Generals player nightly. He helps keep it fair and balanced don’t you know?   But, this time he donned a big plastic red nose and white face clown paint (remember black face paint is very out of style these days) to opine that this proves that The Donald is unfit to lead us economically seeing as he didn’t know how to run a business. Evidently Juan missed the recent TV episodes on the network that feeds him as they reported the lowest unemployment in 49 years, a very healthy stock market, low inflation, and rising wages.

Juan’s clown outfit could come in handy to distract the raging bull when the riding cowboy gets tossed in the mud.  That bull, played by none other than President Trump himself, starred in his own road show in Panama City, FL last evening.  There he snorted and pawed the ground to the audience’s delight.  Trump is no apprentice on the big stage.  “You got some real beauties.  You have a choice between Sleepy Joe and Crazy Bernie,” he said.  The crowd roared.  “And Beto, he’s falling like a rock.”  “I’ll take any of them, let’s just pick somebody please and start this thing.”  The lead actor cares not who his cowboy rider is.  He’s ready to toss him or her.   Once the rider is on the ground send in Juan the clown to distract him.  But, when President Trump acts there are no cliffhanger endings.  Give him a chance and he will (Al) gore you.

We cannot wait for more hits this summer.  Meanwhile, Oscar nominations for all.  Bravo, bravo!

Headline Advance But Disappointing Close

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Friends

As we mentioned after yesterday’s market dip, we are on
headline watch and that a simple tweet can move stocks in either direction.
Well, this morning we got the “Chinese want to make a deal” tweet from the President
and stocks quickly moved into positive territory. As further comments from the
White House seemed to confirm that talks were back on for later this week,
stocks moved comfortably into positive territory. But, the enthusiasm waned and
stocks drifted lower into a disappointing close.

For the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 2
points to close at 25,967. The S&P 500 was down 4 points to finish the day
at 2,879. Gold was down $4 to trade at $1,281 per ounce, while oil was up $.73
to trade at $62.13 per barrel WTI.

Positive trade headlines have become less and less effective
as more and more doubt creeps into the actual validity of such headlines. On
the other hand, negative headlines about the Chinese trade situation sends
ripples of fear through the markets and stocks seem much more susceptible to
such headlines. Before doubt was introduced into the trade proceedings this
week, it appeared that the stock market was in a position to actually melt up
given the comfortable environment for stocks (employment, inflation, GDP,
earnings and tailwinds), but now it feels like the downside to a lack of a
trade deal is considerably higher than the upside of achieving a trade deal. In
other words, the risk/reward equation appears to have changed this week. Stay
tuned.

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim

And Justice For All

Rod Rosenstein(RR) resigned yesterday effective May 11, 2019.  RR went to the White House Monday and personally delivered his resignation letter face to face with the President, according to an administration official and a Justice Department official.  It was only fitting that he do that since in his short stint as Deputy Attorney General he often went toe to toe with President Trump.

On Monday, Rosenstein wrote in his resignation letter to Trump, “We keep the faith, we follow the rules, and we always put America first.”  Sounds like a great idea we suppose.

Regardless of which side of the aisle you prefer it was hard at times to keep the faith in RR because one wondered whether he was following the rules.  It’s hard to put America first if you don’t.
President Trump nominated RR to serve as Deputy Attorney General for the United States Department of Justice on February 1, 2017.  He was confirmed by the U.S. Senate on April 25, 2017.  A quick, but very busy, two years later he’s out.
But, in the span of 24 months RR wrote a letter to Trump recommending James Comey be fired, appointed Robert Mueller as Special Prosecutor in the Russia mess, either did or did not want to wear a wire when talking to Trump, attempted to recruit cabinet members to invoke the 25th amendment to have Trump removed from office, and approved along with AG Robert Barr the findings of the Mueller Investigation.  Trump tells us that he sleeps about four hours a night.  Our guess is that RR sleeps about four hours a week.
Research shows he is a registered Republican.  Trump didn’t get that feeling, wanting on numerous occasions to fire him.  Bad idea Trump’s team told him.
Eleven House GOP members filed articles of impeachment against Rosenstein on July 25, 2018, alleging he has stonewalled document requests from Congress and he mishandled the 2016 election investigation.  But they backed down for fear of slowing the Kavanaugh Supreme Court approval process.  Bad idea other congressmen told them.
He was in the very good graces of the Democrats until RR added his signature to Barr’s that Mueller’s investigation found no Trump Russia collusion and felt like any instances of obstruction of justice failed to rise to the level of criminal activity.  Bad conclusion Democrats told him.
So Trump didn’t like him.  Congressional Republicans didn’t like him.  And, now Congressional Democrats don’t like him.  If everyone disagrees with you up there in the swamp maybe you are putting America first?
So Rod Rosenstein went out like he came in-face to face and toe to toe with his biggest of many critics.  Maybe justice was served after all.

Google Tonight, Apple Tomorrow

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Friends

It’s a big earnings week with Google (Alphabet) announcing
their earnings after the close today and Apple after the close tomorrow. Google
shares posting new all-time highs today would seem to be in a precarious
position going into the release, while Apple has also had quite an advance so
far in 2019. It will be interesting to see if those stocks are fully pricing in
good news, or can the companies exceed expectations enough to actually push
shares higher?

As for today, things were mainly quiet, and by the close the
Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 10 points to finish the day at 26,554. The
S&P 500 was up 3 points to close at 2,943. Gold was down $6 to trade at
$1,282 per ounce, while oil was up $.32 to trade at $63.62 per barrel WTI.

Earnings are front and center at the moment, just at the
moment stocks are touching all-time new highs. A bit of a high bar for
Corporate America to clear just when things were supposed to be getting more
difficult for them. Should be an interesting week. Stay tuned.

Jim

Jim

GDP Surprises

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Friends

At first blush, our first look at 1st quarter GDP
was a bit of an eye opener. The economy grew at 3.2% in the 1st
quarter which was quite a bit better than the 2.5% that analysts were expecting.
But, after further analysis the bears among us noticed that a good portion of
the growth was due to inventory build and that underlying demand had weakened.
Remember the days when a good number was just, well, a good number? Bond market
participants immediately went with the more cynical view as bond prices rose,
while yields fell. But, stocks had a relatively good day. Moderate growth with
low interest rates and no inflation has been just fine for stock investors for
quite some time.

Anyway, by the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was
up 81 points to finish the day at 26,543. The S&P 500 was up 13 points to
close at 2,939. Gold was up $8 to trade at $1,288 per ounce, while oil was down
$2.32 to trade at $62.89 per barrel WTI.

On the earnings front, Intel, Chevron and Exxon Mobil
disappointed, while Amazon did its thing and delivered solid results. As busy
as this week was, next week is the busiest week on the earnings calendar. We’ll
see reports from Alphabet (Google), Apple, GM, McDonalds, Conoco Phillips,
Merck, Pfizer, Kellogg, DowDupont and hundreds more. As we have seen the
earnings reports and the subsequent share price reactions have been very mixed.
My overall impression so far is that earnings are probably a little better than
we expected, but share prices were already reflecting that, with the advance we
have seen since the beginning of the year. Also noteworthy is that companies
are still providing very cautious guidance going forward, and that too has been
a bit of a headwind for stocks over that past couple of weeks. All in all,
though, here we are at all-time highs. As I said, stocks don’t mind a slow
growth, low inflation, and low interest rate environment. We’ll let you know
how next week’s busy earnings schedule plays out.

Have a great weekend everyone.

Jim

Just a Bit Inside!

Last evening Philadelphia Phillie Rhys Hoskins homered off of NY Mets reliever Jacob Rhame in a 6-0 win.  This came just one day after Rhame buzzed two consecutive fastballs just above Hoskin’s cranium in the meaningless ninth inning of Mets 9-0 blowout.  Hoskins basked in the moment, taking a very long 34 seconds to touch all of the bases.

Joe Biden hopes he hit a home run too.  Just one day after he was supposed to release his presidential campaign announcement video he did.  His video is a good bit longer than 34 seconds(209 to be exact) and he doesn’t touch all of the bases.  Rather it appeals directly to his base.  It buzzes a fastball or two right at the cranium of President Donald Trump.

And so the race to rally the base is on.  In the very first inning of Biden’s video he remembers the conflict (and tragic death of one innocent bystander) between far right-wing groups and anti protesters in August of 2017 in Charlottesville, VA.  He calls out Trump’s comments that there were “a lot of good people on both sides there.”  So the race for 2020 among 20 Democrat hopefuls is joined.  Biden wasted no time telling us that Trump was bad.

Old school baseball at its finest, or at its worst if you prefer, was on display in NY.  “He got me,” Rhame said. “Make a better pitch, he doesn’t get to run the bases.”  Added Mets manager Mickey Callaway: “I really don’t have any thoughts on it. That’s their team. They can do what they wanna do.”  “If a ball goes over your head the night before, the best way to get back at the pitcher is by putting the ball in the seats,” Phillies manager Gabe Kapler said.  Unapologetic it was. Old school it is.

So too is Joe Biden.  Old school politician he is.  The last time he had to raise funds he shook many a hand and hugged and hugged and hugged many a lady.  Today, the world-wide web is your fundraising friend.  Obama’s campaigners ran breathlessly to Beto’s camp. What a breath of fresh air this Beto guy is they said.  He reminds us of a certain guy named Barrack in 2008 they said.   O’Rourke is 47.  Joe turns 77 this year.  He’s old enough to be his crazy uncle.  He could be related, but can he relate?

But Joe is apologetic.  A month or so ago he apologized to all women, saying about the Anita Hill testimony during the Clarence Thomas Supreme Court nominee hearings ” I wish I could have done something.”  “To this day I regret I couldn’t come up with a way to get her the kind of hearing she deserved, given the courage she showed by reaching out to us.”  Joe forgot, or forgot to tell us, that he was the Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee that ran the hearings then.  And just a couple of weeks ago he apologized for hanging on too long during all of those uplifting hugs.  He said “I will be more respectful of people’s personal space.”  He even noted that today is more about taking selfies.

Hoskins said that the slow homerun jog wasn’t about retaliation. “A couple of guys kind of said the phrase, ‘Don’t poke the sleeping bear,”‘ he said.  And with that baseball continues to slog on with some of yesterday’s traditions.  Perhaps far too comfortable insiders are still running the show.

Today Biden can take a 209 second video trot around the diamond. The 24 hour news cycle will provide the stadium.   Tomorrow he should expect two fastballs high and tight.  Eventually he will have to stop apologizing for his past.  Eventually he will have to stop telling us who Trump is.  Eventually he will have to tell us who he is, won’t he?

Or, he just pokes the bear that President Trump is.  And The Donald never sleeps.

 

 

 

Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

With 5G technology and artificial intelligence on our doorsteps we will very soon be able to see, hear, and do things better and faster than ever before.  So what will America prioritize to see, hear, and do better than ever?

While that conversation, driven by capitalism, evolves in boardrooms and meeting rooms the world over, Wall St. has certainly has bought in.  A record-setting day yesterday had most indices closing at new all time highs.  This writer took a Uber ride Friday night and the driver was eager to give us stock tips.  A good stock tip might be “when Uber drivers give stock tips it’s time to sell stocks.”

Regardless, Main St. seems to have bought in too.  Employment is at all time highs too.  Inflation is low.  Interest rates are tame.

All is well, eh?  Well.  Maybe not.  A quick trip around the newsrooms in the last 24 hours shows us just how bad life really is apparently.

Brick and mortar is dead.  Brick and mortar is dead.  Maybe not.  Kohl’s Department Stores announced yesterday that they are expanding their agreement with Amazon to increase the number of their retail stores from 100 to all 1100 to accept Amazon returns.   Traditional stores teaming up with fierce internet competitors that were going to drive them out of business sounds crazy. It’s about foot traffic, always.  Both stocks rose sharply.  Bernie Sanders called Amazon criminal the other evening in a town hall.  It turns out that they very legally pay less taxes than Bernie wants them to.  Sounds like they help employ a few folks that do pay taxes.  “Crazy Bernie” someone calls him.  We’ll be back after this commercial break.

California wants to eliminate those tiny plastic shampoo bottles that hotels provide.  Turns out that they are being found in the oceans at an increasing and alarming rate they say.  First it was those plastic rings around so many six packs of cola strangling all of the seals.  Once eradicated, the plastic straws that you drank the cola with started floating in the seas.  What could be next?  Could it be all of the plastic syringes lying in the streets that were handed out to drug users up the coast to insure clean needles for all?  More after these commercial words.

A few of the now 20 and counting announced Democrats for president have endorsed giving voter rights to either all Americans 16 and over, or all people living in this country, or all people living in this country that are incarcerated, or all three of the above.  We wonder if the cry for sixteen year olds to vote coincides with them being 18 and of legal age to vote come 2020?  First come, first served.  We wonder when it became a right of a non US citizen to vote, period?  See if you can vote in the country of your choice the next time you travel abroad.  We wonder if the plan is to bring the polling booths to the prisons, or to bring the prisoners to the polling booths?  We’re up against a hard break.  Back in two minutes.

We are back.   Elizabeth Warren one upped Bernie Sanders’ free tuition giveaway.  She wants free college too, but first wants to forgive 50k of student debt per individual that had to pay.  Meanwhile, Maxine Waters, Chairperson of the House Finance Committee, wants to know what the big banks are going to do help these million or so yearly student loan defaults.  She “grilled” several bank CEO’s  two weeks back asking what they were going to do about this crisis.  After the third CEO in a row reminded her that the government took over the loan program from these greedy bankers in 2009, she relented.  Awkward.  To summarize, the debt isn’t being repaid.  Warren wants to forgive and forget about it anyway.  It’s our government that is running the loan program even though the Finance Chairperson doesn’t know it.  Lets just make college free.  Banks are bad.  We’ll be back with some final words right after this important message from our sponsors.

We wind down our 5G broadcast to you tonight on a lighter note with a look at this brief video of the latest advances in robotic programming.  Wow.  Artificial intelligence is creepy.

And, just before we close we have breaking news.  It is confirmed that Joe Biden, who has been bidding his time, will announce tomorrow that he is entering the crowded Democratic field of announced candidates for president in 2020.   Wow.  How ironic is it that we mentioned Biden, artificial intelligence, and creepy all at the same time?

Thank you for watching.  Good day.

Ya Gotta Believe!

Back when the 1973 New York Mets, aka “The Amazins,”  were making their very improbable run all the way to the World Series, team member Tug McGraw coined a phrase.    It was “Ya Gotta Believe.”  And believe the Mets did, going from last place in their division on a very late in the season August 30th all the way to a 4 games to 3 World Series loss to the Oakland A’s.  Tug’s tug on his teammates passion to unite behind a cause was a winning formula.

So too it is in politics.  Tell people something enough and eventually they will accept it as the truth and a way of life and unite behind a cause.  Just a few months back, and several hundred billions less in debt, the US Senate held a hearing to either approve or reject Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the US Supreme Court.  Quickly Christine Blasey Ford became the centerpiece of the effort to block his confirmation.  She claimed a then teen Kavanaugh about 30 odd years ago  attempted to rape her at a party.  Where?  She didn’t know where.  When? She didn’t know when.  Her friend that she said was with her at the party said she wasn’t.

It mattered not.  You gotta believe her some said.  Kamala Harris, Democratic Senator on the Confirmation Committee said she did. She is now a candidate for President.  Others did too.   Hawaii Senator Hirono went so far as to state that Ford needed to believed, she believed Ford, and that men needed to shut up.  This was before the testimony to reveal any credible evidence.  You know, everyone is guilty if they are on the wrong side of the argument until proven innocent.  When the hearings concluded, the unconvinced of guilt lefties felt like yet another “victim,” who just came forward, needed to be heard.  She was represented by the honorable, but now indicted for attempted bribery of nike, Michael Avenatti.  Nothing credible came of that either.   Shocker.  Another delay.

Eventually Kavanaugh was confirmed.  But, that was only after the delay and the narrative could be heard and heard and heard.  After all, what better free advertising for the party attempting to regain control of both houses in 2018?

Enter the Trump Collusion Mueller Investigation.  Enter Adam Schiff, Chair of the House Intelligence Committee (House and the word Intelligence together, like politicians, make strange bedfellows).  Pencil Neck, as someone calls him, claims to have evidence that Trump colluded with the Russians.  Twenty-three months of Mueller, his cadre of lawyers, investigators, over 500 subpoenas and over one million pages of info requests of Trump’s team later, we have the Attorney General Robert Barr echoing Mueller that there was no collusion.  And, Mueller stated no legal reason to think Trump obstructed justice.  Barr said, too, that it fails to meet the legal bar for it.

Harry Reid said that he had evidence that Mitt Romney cheated on his income taxes.  Give em hell Harry.  No evidence yet.  None ever coming.

“We need Mueller to testify before the Oversight Committee,” comes the cry.  “Surely there is more to this,” comes the cry.  “What’ll we do with all of these pitchforks and lanterns,” comes the cry.

We now have government officials asking for government officials to interview under oath a government appointed special prosecutor who investigated the executive branch of our government for two years and came to no legal wrongdoings.  Ya Gotta Believe says Adam and others.  Adam, show us your evidence.  It was your civic duty, not political hay to make, 23 months ago.

Don’t let the facts get in the way of a good narrative it seems. Oh, and if we can keep this up till, say, 2020, we can use this cloud hanging over Trump to beat Trump, can’t we?

Seems like one party would rather try to win running on what the other party did wrong (ya gotta believe) rather than what that party did itself right.  Right?  Wrong?  The American citizens lose either way.

 

Come On In, The Water Is Fine

A whole flock of small rubber ducks just hit the river.  And, with it, the great race for 2020 has begun.  If you are watching it on TV it’s abundantly clear that the race downriver is from right to left.

The flapping, quacking, and invisible web-footed paddling is robust.  It’s about 20 such newbies or not so newbies all looking for the right current to power their way to the front.  What’s first prize?  It’s power in the race that wins the power out of the race.

There is but one problem.  By far the biggest and loudest quacker is, for now out front.

The biggest duck is none other than, ahem, Donald Duck.  As we breathlessly wait for the now neutered Mueller Report (less than 24 hours away) The Donald is swimming in fresher, clearer, and not so deep nor hot water.  Every opponent will have a staff member read the report and be able to find the worst moment and whale away.  This will last about 24 hours.  Then, reality will set in.  While they have had their scope sighted on the biggest duck for two years, they’ve shot blanks thus far.

So, then, what now a mere 17 months from the election?  Well, the swim to the hard left seems to be the rip tide of choice.  Remember a short three months ago when Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumped in with the Green New Deal.  It seemed like a swimmingly good far left idea at the time.  Quickly, it’s been overtaken by paddling of cute orange feet even further to the left.

Good old Bernie Sanders, he of a few feathers missing on his crown, has one upped his desire for free college tuition with a proposed 52% tax take on the income rich.  When asked in a Monday night town hall if he and his $562k income of a year ago were ready to ante up, he went dead left and talked about Google and Apple, and other capitalistic successes not paying any taxes.  And, he called it criminal.  Silly us, we thought “criminal” was doing something against the law.  He said nada, or not a thing, about his willingness to go along with his own proposal.

The newest duckling, Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, Pete Buttigieg, told MSNBC’s Rachael Maddow last evening that this Electoral College thing, written into the Constitution by our founding fathers, was so yesterday.  And with that he shook his tail feathers and motored past the previous left.  He said, we paraphrase, that it no longer represents the true will of the United States.  We wonder how his friends and family from the great state of Indiana feel about his desire to minimize their voice?

And from the left coast, Northern California Congressman and now announced candidate as well, Eric Stalwell quacked loudest of all.  He declared that when elected he would push legislation to make all assault type rifles illegal.  He then swam into the deep, deep left side of the river by stating that if anyone refused to surrender their guns, they would be convicted of a crime and sent to prison.  To recap, he wants to make a legal part of the Second Amendment illegal and take away legally owned guns.  And, then he wants to convict those certain gun owners who won’t surrender them of illegal possession.  He suggested that other rifles and such only be stored in gun clubs, shooting ranges, and hunting clubs.   There is a duck hunting joke in here somewhere.

Our guess is that Joe Biden, who someone labeled as Creepy Uncle Joe, is waiting at a turn in the riverbank.  He is busy making sure his feathers can repel any water that his past might have taken on.   If he (when he) waddled in, the river’s course splinters.  With somewhat limited tact, he might find a different tack to the finish line.

With so many baby ducklings in the river, fresh air (time) and space (on the stage) to maneuver is tight.  The 17 month race is on. Soon enough Mother Nature will take its course and the flock will lose members.

And the mother of all ducks for now, Donald, will vigorously attempt to pluck what’s left (did you see what we just did?).

Meanwhile the race is on and the quacking is incessant.

 

 

A Mixed Bag

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Friends

Today’s earnings releases produced a mixed bag of share
price reactions. Johnson & Johnson had a very nice earnings beat and for
the most part the stock reacted positively. United Healthcare had what looked like
a nice earnings scorecard but the shares, after rallying initially, spent the
day down significantly. Bank of America had a nice earnings beat, but one buoyed
by cost efficiency more than revenue growth. Nevertheless, the shares fell
early but recovered to end the day mainly unchanged. As I said, a very mixed
bag of results, and not all that surprising given the market action so far this
year.

As for stocks in general, for the day the Dow Jones
Industrial Average was up 67 points to close at 26,452. The S&P 500 was up
1 point to finish the day at 2,907. Gold was down $12 to trade at $1,279 per
ounce, while oil was up $.73 to trade at $64.13 per barrel WTI.

The earnings parade continues after the close, and over the
next 2 days, before we break for the holiday weekend on Friday. In the meantime
we’ll monitor the results and how the companies’ shares react in price. As seen
today, there is a lot of nuance with these earnings releases, and so much of
the stock price action is predicated on what type of move the shares have
experienced going into this earnings season. Stay tuned.

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim