Recession Fears Pummel Stocks

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Friends

Stocks took a beating today fueled by lousy economic numbers overnight in Germany and China, and a yield curve inversion in the closely watched 2/10 year Treasury note spread. Now, late in the day the actual spread is not inverted (the 2 year is at 1.58% while the 10 year is at 1.59%), but for overreacting’s sake, we’ll just say that they are. You know the drill, an inverted yield curve either means we are heading into recession or at least it will be the cause of one. Yes, for whatever reason you choose (political, doomsday punditry, self-loathing) we are once again determined to talk ourselves into a recession. Given the overwhelming negative sentiment at the moment, stocks simply didn’t have a chance today.

By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 800 points to finish the day at 25,479. The S&P 500 was down 85 points to close at 2,840. Gold was up $11 to trade at $1,526 per ounce, while oil was down $2.01 to trade at $55.09 per barrel WTI.

Yes, folks we will experience another recession at some point. As a matter of fact, if we are lucky enough to live for a couple more decades (fingers crossed) we are going to experience more recessions and more bear markets for stocks. Capitalism produces business cycles. Now, central bankers have been desperately trying to eliminate business cycles for some time, but eventually they face diminishing returns for their efforts (see Japan). We are likely to see the Fed cut rates again soon (never give up), but it is questionable just how that will help. I guess if mortgage rates drop to 1% the housing sector is safe. And, by the way for investors and planners who need to provide income at retirement, negative interest rates might be a problem (yes, more than a trillion dollars of debt has negative yield around the globe- I’m not kidding). So… will the Fed be able to get out in front of this coming recession and cut it off at the pass? Are negative yields coming to a financial institution near you? Or, will the “don’t fight the Fed” vigilantes prove to be right once again as TINA shows off her market powers? Insert thinking guy emoji.

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim

Win One for the Old Gaffer!

What a presidential race we would have if it were a racist v. a racist.   So far we have one contestant and reigning champion signed up for it.  Will we get another?

Donald Trump is a racist.  Numerous TV news shows, late night shows, radio shows, comics, and civic leaders tell us this every day.  He provided even more fodder for their cannons in the last two weeks.  First he called Baltimore rat infested.  It turns out that “infested” is a racist term.  Who knew?  Now we do.

Congressman Elijah Cummings in 1998 called his Baltimore district drug infested.  Maybe it wasn’t a racist term then.  Or, maybe what happened twenty years ago is too far back to really bring up about a person’s past.  Don’t tell now Supreme Court Judge Brett Kavanaugh that though.  You may recall that he all but stood trial in front of the Gentleman from Baltimore who proceeded over his House confirmation hearings.  Kavanaugh’s high school behavior of over 30 years ago was front and center for over a week of hearings.

And yesterday the Trump administration announced that it is implementing a new rule changing green card criteria to more closely examine immigrants’ financial resources. It makes it more difficult for immigrants who came to the country legally to stay as permanent residents if they’ve used or are likely to use public benefits like food stamps, Section 8 housing vouchers, or Medicaid.  “Racist,” said one CNN commentator this AM.  “White nationalist,” said another.  “He only wants people in this country that look like him,” the first commenter added on.  What is strange about those character assassinations though is that Trump didn’t target any race with the new rule proposal.  He targeted any and all that are most likely to “lay on the country’s leg” regardless of skin color.

Which brings us to the need for another racist to join the fray to get to the racist v. racist showdown.   So far Democratic front runner Joe Biden hasn’t been labeled a racist.  He has been the owner of a few, ok several, spoken gaffes.  Gaffes sounds so much nicer than racist doesn’t it?

He said late last week that “we believe in the truth, not facts!”  His audience actually cheered.   Well the truth of the matter is that the next day in another stump speech he also said “that poor kids are just as bright and talented as white kids during a campaign speech to Hispanic and Asian voters in Iowa.”  Is that a fact?  After an awkward pause (dare we call it a senior moment?) he added “we,wa, wealthy kids, black kids, Asian kids, but I’m serious.”  His audience actually cheered.  If you watched the link above you can hear the CNN crew agree that it was just another gaffe in a history of gaffes that Biden makes.  Gaffes still sounds so much nicer than racist doesn’t it?

Of course 30 years ago Joe Biden stood with congressmen labeled as segregationists and spoke out opposing federally mandated school bussing.  It was at least another gaffe don’t you think?  Was it racist?  Kamala Harris took him apart on stage about it but said she didn’t think he was a racist.  Whew.  It’s funny how that works.  And, thirty years ago, like with Cummings’ comments, is probably too far back to really bring up a person’s past.  But, she did.  Again, don’t tell that to now Supreme Court Judge Brett Kavanaugh though.

So, for now, if Biden holds on to his Democratic nomination lead we’ll only get to see the “Old Gaffer” v. the racist.  Biden says that his gaffes are just “Joe being Joe.”  But, with each gaffe the Democrats are more and more concerned if they can “just win one for the Old Gaffer.”

Why?

Today we wonder why.

The head of the NRA warned the Trump administration yesterday that suggesting that more stringent and universal background checks for gun owners would not be “welcomed” by a great number of his supporters.  Why not have a thorough check?  If you want future citizens/immigrants thoroughly checked why not a future gun owner?

Donald Trump always says that he never attacks people until provoked.  He states that he only counter punches and does so twice as hard as when he is first attacked.  If that is entirely true, and we doubt it, why not put the jabs aside yesterday on his two city (Dayton and El Paso) tour?  Those that protested his arrival and talked about him after he departed the two cities couldn’t put their attacks aside which is shameful.  But,  President Trump could have and should have risen above the fray on the one day that rising above the polarization was warranted.  Two wrongs don’t make a right.

Meanwhile, about a dozen outspoken Democrats have called for Mitch McConnell to recall the Senate to either approve pending gun legislation or create new gun law.  Why wasn’t this urgent need an urgent need prior to the past two weekend’s shootings?  It’s as reactionary as the TSA making you take off you shoes after they figured out you could actually put explosives in your shoes and walk straight through those reactionary security screening machines designed to detect those explosives.

Why did they go home for six weeks in the first place? Isn’t there infrastructure, prescription costs, healthcare, and a ballooning deficit to attend to?  Why don’t they mandate six week vacations for all?  Think of how many tropical drinks you could suck down through ocean saving paper straws in 42 consecutive days off.

When the Democrats held the House and the Senate in the first two years of the Obama Administration why didn’t they pass stricter gun control measures?  When the Republicans held the House and the Senate in the first two years of the Trump Administration why didn’t they pass stricter gun control measures?

Why couldn’t New York Mayor Bill De Blasio, appearing on The Sean Hannity Show last evening, affirm that he supported gun ownership for citizens who passed background checks, were deemed mentally stable, and who had not been convicted of a felony?   He was asked every which way and declined each time.  Thankfully he is polling at less than one percent in his run for the Democratic Party’s 2020 presidential nomination.

It’s positions like his from the left that slow or stifle any real meaningful dialogue.  If you are from the right you have every right to worry about giving an inch and having people try to take a yard.  If you are a proponent of the Second Amendment why would you want to give an inch when someone in a big government (De Blasio) position, running for the biggest government position of all, is protected by guns doesn’t feel like you should have that same right?  Didn’t some of his running mates publicly state that they would go door to door confiscating guns?  Good luck with that.

Why does it feel like the national narrative has changed from Russia, Russia, Russia to racist, racist, racist?

Why don’t we impeach Trump? Isn’t being a racist, a white nationalist, a white supremacist, or having white privilege an impeachable offense?  Clearly those heinous beliefs combined with collusion and obstruction can get it done.

Then we can blame someone else the next time a mentally ill person decides to “go off” on a group of innocent people in any town in any moment for any reason.  Then, after a week of lip service we can go back to our daily routines until it happens yet again.  And, then we can look around the halls of Congress and find someone else to blame.  Well, we can if they are in session.

Happy (C)Hump Day!

Happy Hump Day.  You’ve made it this far into the week, you might as well stick it out now and go the distance.  Joe Scarborough, MSNBC cohost of Mornings With Joe, made it far enough into his transformation to the Democratic Party that this AM he decided to stick it out and go all of the way over the cliff.

BBR, being fair and balanced, monitors all news outlets.  This AM we tuned in to hear Joe, his sidekick and wife Mika Brzezinski, and others interview Nebraska GOP State Senator John McCollister.  McCollister tweeted Sunday night, “The Republican Party is enabling white supremacy in our country. As a lifelong Republican, it pains me to say this, but it’s the truth.”

Ah, that’ll get you instant oxygen on MSNBC.   Through out the 5 minute or so interview MSNBC had the large font, all caps, double high banner on the bottom quarter of the screen stating “REPUBLICAN STATE SENATOR IN NEBRASKA SAYS GOP IS “COMPLICIT” WITH WHITE SUPREMACY.”  But, a funny thing happened in those five minutes.  No one asked him about the “complicit” claim.  No one.

But they did ask him why he was speaking out against his own party.  Mika, “So where do you stand with your party affiliation?  I guess the Republican Party kicked you out?”  McCollister, “No. they can’t. Only I can kick myself out.”  Nice try by Joe’s wife.

McCollister went on to say that “the GOP party under Trump has lost the values it used to stand for being free trade, legal immigration, and fiscal sanity.”  Joe called Trump a “long time Big Government Democrat who only changed parties so that he could run” then asked, looking for leaks in the dam  “if he had heard from or received any support from elected officials in Nebraska or around the country?”  “No, no elected officials have reached out.”  Nice try by Mika’s husband.

Willie Geist asked what his fallout could be for speaking out.  “I term out in three years and we have no caucus, so the political fallout for me is very little.”  BBR would have liked to have asked him, then, why it took all of this time to speak out.  We think we got that answer.  Nice try by Willie.

An unnamed commenter on the desk asked how “Nebraska farmers were holding up given the reckless and incompetent tariff and trade policies.”  McCollister expressed surprise that no backlash had occurred from the farming community.  He said “I guess that they are just hoping something will eventually get better.” Nice try by Mr. Unnamed.

Mika was thanking him for his time and said that she “really appreciated his voice” as the interview concluded, but Mika’s husband couldn’t help himself and jumped in.  “Thank you so much Senator for standing up and being counted, sounding like actually a member of the party of Lincoln,” Joe said.  “Yep!” Mika said.

So, to summarize Joe called they party he joined “big government democrats.” And, Mika and Joe yearn for the old days of the Republican Party when it stood for free trade, legal immigration, and fiscal sanity.   So, isn’t Trump attempting to balance the trade field with China, Mexico, Canada, and others to make it truly free or at least a level one as opposed to one sided tariffs?  So, isn’t Trump railing incessantly about his belief in immigration as long as it’s legal?  Now, on the fiscal sanity, BBR wholeheartedly agrees.  Trillion dollar deficits are no way to run a country.  We wonder if they felt they felt the same from 2009-2016.  However, Trump’s team insists that there is plenty of time to tighten the belt, just not now.  And, they claim that they will when (2020-2024) they want to “Keep America Great.”

Joe’s wife should be so, so proud.  Her transformation of Joe, former Republican Congressman, is complete.  It’s complete in the sense that they both cannot accept that Trump was elected in 2016, and both spend 24/7 speaking out against anything he does.  Russia, Russia, Russia.  Racist, racist, racist. It’s complete in how he identifies his Democratic party affiliation.

But, but ideologically they sound so, so confused.

Happy Chump(s) Day.

 

 

Stocks Tumble 3% On Trade Tensions

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Friends

Well, that escalated rather quickly. After last week’s difficulties for stocks triggered by the President lighting the trade war tariff match, China’s threatened retaliations (and currency devaluation) along with unrest in Hong Kong sent stocks tumbling at the open of trading this morning. Tumbling turned into cascading by midday and continued into the afternoon. Though, we did recover some and closed off the lows of the day, it basically was a mess for the bulls. Interest rates around the world continue to tumble, adding to anxiety that the global economies are becoming less and less fixable, and central banks will have less and less effect on them.

By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 767 points to finish the day at 25,717. The S&P 500 was down 87 points to close at 2,844. Gold was up $15 to trade at $1,473 per ounce, while oil was down $.81 to trade at $54.85 per barrel WTI.

Very quickly, the S&P 500 is down 6% from the all-time highs, and if you look back exactly one year the S&P is basically flat. But, of course, we’ve had a lot of action between now and then, not to mention a lot of anxiety and a few thrills. Wow, this is just Monday! Buckle up for the week ahead. We’ll let you know how it all unfolds.

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim

Ten Piece Nuggets-Debates

The Fox Theater, which was certainly a fair and balanced venue, hosted night two of two of the second round of the Democratic Party Presidential 2020 debates.

You’ve likely had your fill of it, so the ten nuggets that follow are light, quick, low calorie, and priced just right.

  1.  Cory Booker wants to start impeachment proceedings now.   Good idea except his speaker likely won’t allow it, a House vote would fail, and the Senate wouldn’t even bring it to a vote.   He’s drinking the Kool Aid and he doesn’t even know which flavor.
  2. Jay Inslee, the climate change candidate, is passionate and then some on this topic, or crisis if you prefer.   He, and everyone else on stage, knows that America only produces 15% of the world’s fossil fuel emissions.   If we change all of our “bad” habits, 85% remain.  One candidate said we only have twelve years left. Inslee calculates it a mere ten.  Surely by the next debate someone can get it down to eight.
  3. Kirsten Gillenbrand dramatically asked white people how they would feel “if their son was walking down the street wearing a hoodie and was stopped by the police.”  We wonder about the hoodie comment which is an obvious attempt at correlating it to black male teenagers.  Do all black teens wear hoodies?   Seems like she might be prejudging herself a bit there.
  4. Candidate Yang wants to give every family $1000 a month every month, but two debates in we still aren’t sure why.   Last night he decided to tell us that we should also pay people before they went to prison and pay them after they got out.  He’s no Mary Williamson, but he’s a bit on the edge.
  5. Mary Williamson was the most Googled searched candidate after Tuesday night’s debate.   She is interesting.  Being the most searched can be good or bad though.  Her idea of creating a Department of Peace sounds so comforting though, doesn’t it?
  6. Most everyone on stage last evening was for decriminalizing border crossings. Public opinion polls overwhelmingly are opposed.  It’s a losing hand.
  7. Many are for single provider healthcare effectively eliminating private plans.  The over 150 million who have it are overwhelmingly opposed.  It’s a losing hand.
  8. Kamala Harris went from the hunter to the hunted.  Tulsi Gabbard took her to task on her Cali Attorneys General decisions on marijuana, the death penalty, and other areas.  It will be interesting to see how the polls shake out after this debate for both.  Gabbard needs a few points to stay and Harris might have made a few available to her.  Harris is borderline condescending and angry.  It was a step backwards for her.
  9. NY Mayor Bill De Blasio’s opening and closing statements featured him telling us that he wanted to “tax the hell out of the wealthy.”  Ok.   Then what Bill?
  10. Sleepy Joe Biden, still the pole sitter, took over seventy percent of the attacks on stage.  He handled some well.  Some, not so much.  At the end of the long evening, he closed by asking folks to visit his site at Joe 30…..3….30.   It should have been an appeal to text Joe to 30330.   Get some rest Joe.
  11. One extra.   So.  Who won the two nights?   BBR thinks it was Donald Trump.  But, November 2020 is a long ways away.  Say it ain’t so, Joe.

 

 

 

To Be or Not To Be a Racist. That is the Question.

President Donald Trump is a racist.  If you don’t believe us, just ask MSNBC, or CNN, or The Atlantic, or Joe Scarborough, or Mika Brzezinski, or Bernie Sanders, or AOC and the three, or Elijah Cummings, or the Reverend Al Sharpton.

President Donald trump isn’t a racist.  If you don’t believe us just ask fair and balanced Fox News, or Fox Business, or Rush Limbaugh, or Mark Levin, or cheerleader Sean Hannity.

Elijah Cummings took on what he feels is inadequate care for children at our border.   And the House Oversight and Reform Committee Chairman Cummings put on a show Thursday screaming at acting Homeland Security Secretary Kevin McAleenan about the way illegal immigrant children are treated in detention centers.  “These are human beings!” raved the Maryland Democrat. “Human beings just trying to live a better life!”

Racist Trump took to his favorite avenue to express himself.  He tweeted  “As proven last week during a Congressional tour, the Border is clean, efficient & well run, just very crowded. Cummings District is a disgusting, rat and rodent infested mess. If he spent more time in Baltimore, maybe he could help clean up this very dangerous & filthy place.

And so, predictably, yesterday friends and foes lined up on both sides of the attacks and counter attacks.  Haven’t you watched this movie before?  And, haven’t you watched it before that?  And, won’t it be playing soon all over again, and over again, at a theater near you?  You bet it will.  It will be live on stage at the Fox Theater in Detroit tonight and again tomorrow night.

The debate’s debaters will no doubt take turns trying to one up one another talking about just how racist The Donald is.  But, there is no real debate within the party about how to beat Trump in 2020.  Democrats have to win over Trump voters in swing states like Michigan, a crucial plank in the party’s 2020 strategy in luring its own traditional supporters back to the polls.  And, like a made in America in Detroit, Michigan Ford, they’ll start the engine tonight in The Motor City.

Boosting turnout in majority African-American Detroit as well as in some of its Democratic-trending suburbs where the party found success in last year’s midterm election should do the trick, state party leaders say.  State party leaders in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin say much the same.

Nationwide, the black turnout rate fell to roughly 60% in 2016, down from a record high of nearly 67% in 2012.  It marked the first such decline in 20 years among African-Americans in a presidential election.  Democrats, who typically win an overwhelming majority of black voters, now have just over 15 months to try to reverse that slide.

Trump won Michigan by only about 11,000 votes.  Turn out 15,000 more black voters in 2020, and insure that the traditional 94% of them vote for the Democrat, any Democrat, and voila, the 16 electoral votes goes back to where it usually goes.   Take that strategy to the aforementioned three other states and the rust belt flips.  And, with that, the White House has a new rent free renter for the next four years.

Do you wonder why they chose Detroit for the debate site?  Do you wonder why the attack on Trump for his attack on Elijah’s district is labeled racist?

Cummings has been in Congress for 20 years.  Did the temporary living conditions on our southern border somehow just now deteriorate?  Did the living conditions in some areas of his Baltimore district somehow just now deteriorate?

The answers are of course no and no.  But, the Democratic Party is only interested in your answer to one question.   Is Donald Trump a racist?

 

Better Than Expected

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Friends

Despite a slight earnings miss by Amazon, there were many
other good earnings releases, not the least of which was Alphabet’s, which
helped push market averages to new all-time highs. Today’s GDP number, which
showed 2.1% growth in the 2nd quarter, was actually a little better
than expected, but not so hot as to deter the Fed from cutting rates next week.
That expectation of a rate cut along with a reasonably good earnings season is
fueling the market advance.

For the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 51
points to close at 27,192. The S&P 500 was up 22 points to finish the day
at 3,025. Gold was up $2 to trade at $1,417 per ounce, while oil was up $.18 to
trade at $56.20 per barrel WTI.

It was a very busy week for corporate earnings, and with
nearly half of the S&P having reported, EPS growth is actually showing a
positive number, which is definitely better than expected. The earnings deluge
will continue next week, and of course, we will have the FOMC meeting on
Tuesday and Wednesday. With today’s market action, it appears that market
participants are getting more comfortable with the corporate earnings picture,
and most certainly are expecting an interest rate cut next week. It should be
another fun week ahead. We’ll keep an eye on it all for you.

Have a great weekend everyone.

Jim

Rumors of His Death……….

Way back in 1876 Samuel Clemens, under the pen name of Mark Twain, penned the American classic novel The Adventures of Tom Sawyer.  Tom was an irascible one, just ask his Aunt Polly whom he lived with.  One day for his misdeed(s) she punished him making him whitewash(paint) her picket fence.  Tom convinced his friends to do it for him selling it as a privilege to do such work and admire it as an accomplishment.  And paint it they did.  It’s an amazing accomplishment unto itself, even if it is fiction.

If you jump to 2019 in the adventures of Donald Trump, himself a bit irascible, it looks like he too has passed out the paint brushes.   It looks like the President has convinced his “friends” on The Squad ( Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts and Rashida Tlaib of Michigan) to do his work for him as well.  The Squad has repeatedly attempted to paint Trump as a racist among other non flattering accusations.  Meanwhile the media cannot get enough of the four congresswoman giving the feud much air time.   He has portrayed them on the canvas as the new faces of the ever further leaning left Democratic Party.  Green New Deal, free healthcare, free tuition, and a free for all are promised.  He purposely helps them get even more oxygen.  Aunt Polly, aka Nancy Pelosi, is beside herself.  She can’t decide if she wants to punish Trump, or her freshman legislators, or both.

Meanwhile the 2020 cattle call of 23 Democratic hopefuls to gain the nomination has far too little oxygen in the room.  Each candidate is trying to find their way.  In the crowded herd one has tried to go further left than the next.  Free this and free that is promised for all but the wealthy.   For the wealthy pay for this and pay for that is promised.  Heck, Cory Booker piled on over the weekend and told America that Trump was even worse than a racist.  “The reality is, this is a guy who is worse than a racist,” the Democratic presidential contender from New Jersey told Dana Bash on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “He is actually using racist tropes and racial language for political gains, trying to use this as a weapon to divide our nation against itself.   We aren’t sure what that is called.  Is that a racist’s racist?  Booker took a harder left turn than The Squad.

Trump has made the race (at least for now) a binary decision.  Vote for me, or vote for the new Democratic Party, the face of which is The Squad.  He has plenty of paint brushes to go around.  And, he has plenty of Democrats and media folks lining up on the drop cloths.

Is there one person left in America who hasn’t come to their own conclusion as to whether Trump is a racist (whatever definition of racist one may have) or is not?  And, isn’t this the theme every four years?  Reagan, Bush, Dole, Bush, McCain, Romney, and Trump have all been painted with the same whitewash.  Isn’t it time to let the paint dry and move on to another chore?  Infrastructure, medical care reform, drug costs, and immigration come to mind.

Tom Sawyer went missing in another stunt that Aunt Polly didn’t approve.  Eventually town members had a funeral, for he was presumed dead.  Tom got wind of this and decided to show up at his own funeral.  “Rumors of his death,” he said, “were greatly exaggerated.”

Try as the Democrats might, rumors of Trump’s political career being dead are greatly exaggerated as well.

And, he gave out plenty of paint brushes to eager “friends” as proof.

Big Earnings Week

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Friends

Buckle up. This is a big week for corporate earnings as
we’ll hear from Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Facebook, Travelers, Caterpillar,
Lockheed Martin, Kimberly Clark, Harley Davidson, United Technologies, Coca
Cola, AT&T, Boeing, Ford, 3M, Intel, McDonald’s, and Colgate-Palmolive-
just to mention a few. Then we’ll have another big week for earnings next week
while at the same time an FOMC meeting is happening. So, by the end of the
month, we’ll have a good read on corporate America and we’ll know whether the
Fed has begun to lower interest rates again. It should be a very interesting
couple of weeks.

Other than some strength in the Nasdaq, stocks were mostly
quiet today, perhaps in anticipation of a lot of fireworks coming the next two
weeks. For the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 17 points to close
at 27,171. The S&P 500 was up 8 points to finish the day at 2,985. Gold was
up $1 to trade at $1,427 per ounce, while oil was up $.46 to trade at $56.09
per barrel WTI.

So far it’s been a difficult earnings season to figure out.
Expectations were lowered coming into this earnings season, but stock prices
were sitting at all-time highs. This somewhat confusing set up has led to
market participants wondering just how stocks will react to the releases, and
so far the reactions have been mixed and somewhat muted. Let’s see if anything
breaks loose over the next couple of weeks. Stay tuned, we’ll keep you apprised
of the developments.

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim