Another Different Disappointment From Coast to Coast.

On January 19 of this year Sen. Kamala D. Harris of California joined the 2020 presidential contest with her goal to win the Democratic Party nomination.

“The future of our country depends on you and millions of others lifting our voices to fight for our American values,” she said in the video. “That’s why I’m running for president of the United States.”

She announced on 1/19 as it was also the day our nation honored the late Dr. Martin Luther King, a timing that she said was “very important” to her.  Amid that context, however, Harris played down the role of race.  “When people wake up in the middle of the night, whether it be a mom in Compton or a mom in Kentucky, she’s waking up having the same concerns,” Harris said.

So with that Harris set up shop on the corner of First and Main St.  She brought her chair, table, and game to attract Americans far and wide and hold their interest.  A high single digit percentage stopped by as she broke out the shells and arranged them just so.

Debate one in June almost came and went quietly until Harris pounced on a “sleepy” Joe Biden late in the evening.   Harris, a black former prosecutor, leaped into the cross-talk with a request to speak “on the issue of race.” She then trained her attention on Mr. Biden, and after making clear that she did not believe he was a racist, proceeded to sharply criticize him for having made “very hurtful” comments about having worked with two segregationist senators.  Harris then also recalled Mr. Biden’s opposition to school busing in the 1970’s and opened up about her own history. “There was a little girl in California who was a part of the second class to integrate her public schools and she was bused to school every day,” she said. “And that little girl was me.”  Her desire to downplay the role of race pivoted.

And after that more folks, reaching into the mid teens percentage wise, showed up as she moved the shells randomly to stump the crowd and stump on the campaign trail.  Attention heightened.

Debate two brought Tulsi Gabbard’s attack of Harris’ record as DA of California. Gabbard singled out Harris’ stance on the death penalty, accusing her of keeping “innocent people” on death row and saying she “blocked evidence” that could have helped them. The tense exchange illuminated a complicated piece of Harris’s record as a prosecutor that has drawn criticism from both sides of the aisle, with some targeting her refusal to seek the death penalty in the killing of a police officer, and others attacking her decision to defend California’s death penalty from a statewide legal challenge.

And after that less folks, now slumping back into the mid single digits, showed up as she begged folks to keep their eye on the most important shell-the only one with anything hidden underneath.

In an effort to remain viable in the race Harris pivoted again.   She re re reformed her Medicare for all stance a third time.  She promised teacher pay raises.  She promised a middle class tax cut.  She even offered to kiss all of the babies, that’s assuming they made it through the “women’s wellness” needs.  And, she put all of this under one shell, or so she said.

But, her presence sunk further.  Fewer and fewer were interested in the shell game.  Her poll numbers sunk to less than 3% of likely Democratic voters.  So, Harris spoke to what she viewed as her main electability problem last week.

Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris described electability as the “elephant in the room” of her campaign and wondered aloud whether America is ready for a woman of color to be commander in chief.  “Essentially, is America ready for a woman and a woman of color to be president of the United States?” Harris said in an interview with Axios on HBO. “There is a lack of ability or a difficulty in imagining that someone whom we have never seen can do a job that has been done 45 times by someone who is not that person.”

So, Harris perhaps forgot about one Barrack Obama.  She accused her own party of racism.  That’s what “lack of ability or a difficulty in imagining” means.  This is the same party that successfully saw Barrack Obama ascend from virtually nowhere to serve two terms as President #44.  This is the same party that saw approximately 94% of all African Americans vote for Obama in 2008 and again in 2012. This is the same party that shows Joe Biden polling far, far better with African Americans in absolute numbers and percentages than Harris or Cory Booker in 2019.  Was this party not racist when Harris was polling into the mid teens and running third or fourth, but is now?

Hmm.  Her January downplay of race as relevant in this nomination process now seems so long ago and so hollow.

So, yesterday Kamala Harris did the wise thing.  She announced that her run for 2020 was over.

She folded her chair, folded her table, and packed away her shells.  It turns out that once America focused on that elusive, ever moving, one shell of three, all that was under it was a card.  A race card.  She played it.  Then she folded.

 

 

Stocks Slump As December Begins

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Buoyed by another weak manufacturing data point and concerns that the trade deal with China will be “delayed” once again, the bears were able to add to Friday’s modest losses with a feisty selloff of the market averages. Of course, we haven’t seen very many pullbacks in recent times, so when they occur they tend to get your attention. Whether today’s move is anything to be concerned about for the bulls will only be revealed over time, but a pullback could certainly be refreshing. Of course, we all remember last December, and that was a lot more than refreshing. In fact, I could use a little less of that kind of refreshing, thank you.

By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 268 points to finish the day at 27,783. The S&P 500 was down 27 points to close at 3,113. Gold was down $3 to trade at $1,468 per ounce, while oil was up $.76 to trade at $55.93 per barrel WTI.

Once again, given the gains stocks have seen so far in 2019, it would not be surprising to see a bit of backing and filling. We have pointed out for a couple of weeks that there appears to be a bit of a tug-of-war between those fearful of buying at all-time highs and those who have been somewhat left behind this year and are fearful of missing out on more gains. This should be an interesting week for the markets. Remember, impeachment proceedings will also be part of the equation. Stay tuned, we’ll keep you informed as the week unfolds.

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim

A Different Disappointment From Coast to Coast

Yesterday we began our NCAA football series examining disappointments from coast to coast.  Overnight our Washington Bureau won over our editor.  Because of that, today we put our series on hold to bring you a different disappointment from coast to coast.  It’s time to check in on the US House Intelligence (misnomer) Committee Impeachment Inquiry hearings that’s put our nation on hold.

We know.  We know.  It’s hard to digest.  That’s why we’ll feed our observations to you in our Ten Piece Nuggets format.  It’s easier to swallow this way.

  1. If you haven’t watched any or much of this charade, good for you.  In a word it’s been incredibly “boring.”
  2. How boring is it?  We are glad you asked.  It’s so boring that CBS yesterday made the programming decision to cut from the live broadcast of witness testimony to bring you their regularly scheduled soap opera programming.  It’s all about ratings in TV land you know.  CBS must have figured that you have had enough of the soap opera on Capital Hill.
  3. CBS might also have been short staffed to execute the programming any way.  When last we checked in on the network they were doing a fast and furious job of finding the “no Epstein video leaker” and firing her even though she wasn’t the most wanted “no Epstein video leaker.”  They fired the wrong person as you likely heard.
  4. Probably approaching 50% of America despises Chairman Adam Schiff.  The Republicans are doing their own fast and furious search for the Washington whistle blower. But, we give Schiff a lot of credit.  Staring in his own soap called #SchiffShow, ole Adam has stared straight into the cameras and proclaimed that he has no idea who that person is.  Funny thing is yesterday when Devin Nunez, playing bad cop, wandered into questioning that got a little to close to one particular Intelligence Department ole Adam stopped the questioning for fear of the whistle blower’s identity being revealed.
  5. The witness before the committee at that moment was one Lieutenant Colonel Vindman, who played, at least in his mind, a key role in all matters Ukrainian.  Vindman quickly corrected Nunez when addressed as Mr. Vindman.  When asked later why the sensitivity to wanting to be addressed as Lt. Colonel not Mr. Vindman stated that while dressed in a freshly pressed, full military uniform that it was proper.  Vindman said he didn’t know who the whistle blower was either.  However, he essentially took the fifth around this line of questioning. Therefore, this linked Vindman as the source to the whistle blowers second hand reproted concerns.  The casting department was concerned with this sensitivity on stage, but wardrobe was “oh so proud.”
  6. Does every single congressman or congresswoman have to thank every single government worker for their service every single time they begin their five minutes of time allotted to them?  Of course they do, it’s a show you know.  And this show yesterday stretched all of the way into east coast prime time.  Get ready for more as seven witnesses have come before the committee and there are expected to be seven to ten more before the final curtain is closed.  Thank you for your service.
  7. The pursuit of Donald J. Trump began with Russian collusion three years ago.  Until this week it centered on quid pro quo in his dealings with Ukraine and specifically in the now infamous “perfect phone call” and transcripts of the same.  But the Democrats stopped with the “quid pro quo” and renamed the episode “bribery” just this week.  It’s smart on their part as the word bribery is more easily understood by the masses that watch too many soaps to begin with.  The thinking goes like this “Russian Collusion” sounds like “abortion,” while “quid pro quo” sounds like “a woman’s right to choose” while “bribery” sounds like “woman’s wellness.”  Feel better?  Maybe not, but it’s something that focus groups said is an easier sell.
  8.  So did Trump cross the line on the line when he asked for a corrupt company and one of it’s board members (some dude named Hunter Biden) to be investigated by the new regime in Ukraine?  Add to that the withholding of foreign aid, though no one has testified that the two were “give to get,” at least not yet.  Ambassador to the European Union, Gordon Sondland, might do just that this AM.  Will anyone be watching?  America has to go to work this morning.  Congress should take note.
  9. We ask again, will anyone be watching?  And if they do, will anyone watching not have already made up their mind on whether they think Trump is guilty?  Or, asked differently, will anyone who is watching hasn’t made up their minds on his fate?  Will any member of the House vote differently for or against impeachment than when they voted for or against initiating the impeachment inquiry?  Maybe a few of the Democrats who won a seat in congress from a Trump carried district will.  It’s cover for the next time they run.  Otherwise, it’s a rerun shown from a slightly different camera angle.  Isn’t it?
  10.  It’s hard for America to find a new star when all they see are reruns.  America elected the star of the hit show “The Apprentice” to be it’s President three years ago.  At the end of each show, the now President fired someone.  The House would like the Senate to fire the now President. They want a new star for the 2020 season. The plot is easy to follow.  It’s just the acting that is so bad.

But on with the show we must go.  And, tomorrow on with the NCAA football disappointments we go.  We must have picked the University of Washington for a reason.  Because from Washington the state to Washington the District of Columbia this has been a disappointment from coast to coast.

Indecisive

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It was another very quiet trading session with mixed results once again. The bond market was back open today, but that didn’t seem to make much of a difference. The President gave a speech focused on economics, but that didn’t seem to fire up any animal spirits either. For the most part, it appears that market participants are caught between the fear of buying at new highs and the fear of missing out should stocks go higher into year end.

For the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down a fraction to close at 27,691. The S&P 500 was up 4 points to finish the day at 3091. Gold was up $1 to trade at $1,458 per ounce, while oil was down $.08 to trade at $56.78 per barrel WTI.

The most talked about thing today was the first day of Disney’s new streaming service. If you have Verizon, you evidently get one year free. Regardless, given the buzz, it appears that it will be a very popular offering from Mouse House. As for the markets, let’s see if the week picks up any steam as we roll along.

Have a nice evening everyone. Stay warm.

Jim

Lefty- Big Game. Shorty- YUGE game.

Way way back in 1966, or 1967 Lefty and Shorty were the amiable service station attendants.  Well, that’s what they were called back then as every pump was full serve.   Dad interacted with them as they checked the oil, washed the windshield, pumped the gas, and took the money.

Lefty sat to the left of Shorty.  Imagine that.  Shorty sat on the shorter of the two “halves” of the 55 gallon drum. Imagine that.  Each were cut down to size and retrofitted with a soft cushion top.

They were funny. They always had a back and forth to their banter.  If they were alive last night might have gone like this.

Lefty- It’s after midnight and it’s cold. Nobody’s buying gas at this hour.  Why are we sitting here?  Shorty- So we can discuss the upcoming “Game of the Century, Part II.”   It’s AP #1 LSU v. #2 Alabama.  Lefty- Big Game.  Shorty- YUGE game.  President Donald J. Trump will be there.  Lefty- He will be?  Shorty-  For sure.  It’s in the Deep South.  It’s Deep State v. Deep State.  It’s his base.  Plus he likes cheers, not boos when his name is announced.

Lefty- Who’s he rooting for? Shorty- All of the deplorables in attendance I guess.  He won’t be partial.  He’ll likely wear some fresh orange with a red tide.  Lefty– That’s not impartial.  You must mean a red tie?  Shorty- No, there are no ties in college football, overtimes decide winners.  And Trump likes to win, win, win.

Lefty- Good lord.  Shorty- Well, who do you think is going to win?  Lefty- Tough call, but Joe Burrow is almost automatic operating out of the shotgun.  Shorty- Burrow’s lucky Beto O’Rourke isn’t refereeing.  He promised to take all of the damn guns.

Lefty- Jesus, Mary, and Joseph.  Shorty- Nope they can’t win.  They’re the only three that haven’t announced their candidacy for the Democratic nomination.  Lefty-  Ahem.  Let’s get back to the game, can we?  Shorty- Sure.  It’s going to be standing room only and one expensive ticket.  Lefty- I bet.  Shorty-  I just saw Elizabeth Warren tweet that if she were elected President the tickets would be free.

Silence filled the cold still air as Lefty checked his pulse rate.

Lefty- Well, one more time, who do you think is going to win?  Shorty-  I don’t know.  2011 is the last time LSU won.  That’s “Four More Years!” and “Four More Years!” ago.  Lefty-  Alabama’s defense usually stifles LSU.  Shorty-  That’s cause Nick Saban spends more on his defense budget than Trump does on ours.  Lefty- I’ll play along.  What else?  Shorty-  Well a few reporters asked Joe Biden what he thought of the upcoming game.  Lefty-  Sure they did.  What did he have to say?  Shorty- Well, he said he remembered attending the LSU/Bama “Game of the Century, Part I” back in 2011 acting in his official role of Vice President.  Lefty- And?  Shorty- And, he wanted to wish both the Iowa Jayhawks and the Minnesota Wolverines great luck in Part II this Saturday night in their showdown in Tempe.

Lefty- I’m punching out before I punch you out.  Anything else?  Shorty- The teams are ranked one and two in the AP, but two and three in the College Playoff Poll.  Lefty- Who’s number one in that poll then?  Shorty-  It’s a tossup right now between Joe, Bernie, and Elizabeth.

Lefty-  This has been a dumpster fire.  Shorty- I’ll empty the trash cans before I go.

We the People

The original, unedited, wonderfully written Constitution begins  “We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.”

Now, nearly 250 years in, it has stood the test of time.  It’s what the nation’s forefathers hoped it would do.

It’s strongest part might be it’s first three words, “We the People.”  It’s very beginning suggests that a group met and collectively decided on a course.  That course took a brand new nation, now independent, from it’s birth to opportunities, freedom, safety, wealth, and health the likes of which have never been seen before on this earth.

Today, “We the People” are a very divided group.  Are we the most divided in our nation’s history?  Probably not.  And, despite the histrionics advanced, it’s probably not even close.  “We the People” were more divided before, during, and after the 1861-1865 Civil War.  And, the civil rights movement of the 1960’s was worse to significantly much worse than today.

Today’s “we” are three “we’s” and counting.  We love the disruption that Trump has brought to the status quo in Washington and when, where, and how the U.S. acts on the world stage.  Or, we are disrupters known as “never Trumpers” and we hate (yes hate) Trump.  A third, but growing we, embraces socialism, or even communism. Talk about disruption personified.

Don’t believe the socialism or communism part?  A published poll last evening on one of the major networks showed 27% of American millennials favored communism over capitalism.  These kids borrowed for college.  They owe a lot of money.  They believe that an entry level job isn’t a just reward for doing so.  They want a refund.  And they want it now.  The 1% crowd might be their ATM so they think.

We cannot even rejoice in the elimination of the top leader of ISIS, Abū Bakr al-Baghdadi.  Minutes went by and either the Democrats were offended for not being told prior, or Trump was acting like a bully about it on the bully pulpit, or the Washington Post was eulogizing the savage who ordered the killing of thousands as a austere religious scholar.

The never Trumpers, regardless of party affiliation, have embarked on a three year old campaign to unseat the man who ran the most unconventional campaign the country has ever seen to win the highest seat in all of the land.  That campaign won’t stop all the while Trump’s campaign for reelection is full steam ahead.   Hide in a basement, interview a self created whistleblower, scream “quid quo pro” enough times, and eventually impeach.  That’ll get some of the “We the People” on your team.

Meanwhile, surely it’s time to gas up Air Force One and rile up the base in a red state near you soon.  Stand in line, wear a red MAGA hat, and yell at the other side for 90 minutes.  That’ll make you feel better.  And, that’ll get some of the “We the People” on your team.

Meanwhile, Bernie and Elizabeth are promising those millennials the farm.  The farm might not have much left if Trump doesn’t solve the China trade wars, but we digress.  The farm might not have much left if Trump doesn’t fix that ole existential crisis of climate change, but we further digress.  The farm includes free healthcare, free tuition, tuition debt forgiveness, free flow of immigration, free healthcare for immigrants legal or otherwise.  Free, free, free.  That’ll get some of the “We the People” on your team.

The only problem is that makes for three teams.  It takes four teams for a good playoff.  How about Team Biden?  He’s the head coach of what’s left of the old Democratic Party.  He’s the head coach of what’s now right of the new Democratic Party.  He’s promising to, well, we’re not sure.  Ah yes, he’s promising to beat Trump, platform TBD.  Surely that’ll get some of the “We the People” on your team.

“In order to form a more perfect union” follows right after “We the People” in the Constitutions’ first sentence.  The problem is we don’t know who to follow right now in order to form a more perfect union.

Oh, and one more thing.  Nothing is free, not even freedom.  Nothing.

 

 

 

 

Stocks Take A Breather

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Not surprisingly, after yesterday’s earnings driven rally, stocks took a bit of a breather today after a somewhat disappointing retail sales number was released before the opening bell. As mentioned, we are just getting started with regards to earnings reports (Bank of America added to the decent reports from large banks), and after the close we’ll hear from Netflix, IBM and CSX.

For the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 22 points to finish the day at 27,001. The S&P 500 was down 5 points to close at 2,989. Gold was up $9 to trade at $1,493 per ounce, while oil was up $.50 to trade at $53.31 per barrel WTI.

We’ll continue to keep an eye out on all the earnings reports that will be rolling out over the next few weeks. Stay tuned.

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim

The Nationals Won. The Senators Lost.

If you didn’t get a chance to tune into the Democratic Presidential Debate broadcasted live last evening, worry not.   It’s roughly only the fourth of 12 scheduled debates.  You can catch the next one or the next one.   Maybe the same tired answers to the same tired questions will grab your interest then.  We doubt very seriously that last night’s did.  And, worry not because we have the winners and losers all sorted out for you below.  Schmeer the bagel while we schmeer the debate.

Winner — Elizabeth Warren.  She spoke for a total of 23 minutes which was a strong 7 minutes longer than the presumptive, but maybe no longer, favorite Joe Biden.

Loser —  Everyone.  Everyone who listened to Elizabeth Warren for 23 minutes must feel like they need to go to their happy place this morning.  There is no way that every second of every minute of 23 spoken can be so terribly important about things that are so terribly bad that she must use the octave of shrill that she incessantly does.  Take a breath every now and then.

Winner —  Joe Biden.  Biden spoke for 16 minutes and didn’t really have a memorable “gaffe.”  He said “expidentially” instead of “exponentially.”  He mistook Iraq for Afghanistan.  But, that’s a good night for him these days.   Win one for the old gaffer is still in play, barely.

Loser  —  Joe Biden.  If Uncle Joe thinks that his topline response to his son’s foreign dealings is the end of it he’s sadly mistaken. “My son’s statement speaks for itself.”  “My son made a judgment. I’m proud of the judgment he made.” His party will take Trump to the mat from now till 2020 for his foreign affairs and Trump will tweet about Papa Joe and Son Hunter along the way as necessary.

WInner — Tulsi Gabbard.  Every time Gabbard speaks she sounds well thought out and mostly logical.  It’s a breath of fresh air on a very stale stage.  She isn’t afraid to call out her party or the other one when she feels the need, but does so in a respectful manner.

Loser — Tulsi Gabbard.  Gabbard was afforded only eight minutes of oxygen to breathe new life in the old party.  She lashed out at CNN last evening after the debate for the lack of time.  This may be a reach, but if Trump reached out to her after her campaign gets snuffed out by the DNC, he could make major hay if she accepted a role in his administration.  She seems like the type that if she felt like she could make a difference regardless of their differences she would give it her all.

Winner —  Bernie Sanders.  Two weeks after having what is now being called a heart attack, Bernie was back on the attack.  With his hair out of place, his hands and arms flailing about, and with his far, far left ideas being bombastically presented, all seemed well again.

Loser — Bernie Sanders.  His campaign is boxed in.  His radical left perch has many birds of the same feather.  They all look stuck together.   His stint as the left ideas leader was further slowed by the need for a stent in the arteries.

Winner — Kamala Harris.  Harris used a good bit of her 12 minutes telling America, once gain, that she was plenty experienced as the AG for the State of California.  She reminded us that aside from the US Department of Justice, that department is the second largest in the US.  She also told us, once again, that she went to more funerals of slain innocent children and gunned down cops than she wanted to tell us about.   It was a great refresher course on who she is we guess.

Loser — Kamala Harris.  Harris used a good bit of her 12 minutes telling America, once gain, that she was plenty experienced as the AG for the State of California.  She reminded us that aside from the US Department of Justice, that department is the second largest in the US.  She also told us, once again, that she went to more funerals of slain innocent children and gunned down cops than she wanted to tell us about.  It was a great refresher course on who she is we guess.  Or, it wasn’t.

Winner — Tom Steyer. The retired billionaire who bought his way onto the debate stage had the bright lights shining on him for a full seven minutes.  It must have felt like he was running out of a tunnel onto a playing field for the first time with his favorite JV team.  Cost per minute was rather steep, however.

Loser — Tom Steyer.  Now the retired billionaire can go back to sending money to the candidates he stood next to.

Winner — The Washington Nationals.  The Nationals probably gained TV eyeballs by the minute as America switched the debate off, and their sweep in the NLCS of the St. Louis Cardinals on.

Winner — The Washington Nationals.   Once upon a time there was a team in Washington.  Their nickname was the Senators.  They moved to Texas in 1971 and became the Rangers.  When the DC area regained a team (the Montreal Expos) in the 2005 season they didn’t rename them the Senators.  After last night’s debate snoozer, who can blame them?

Winner — Donald J. Trump.  Regardless of your party affiliation, hopes, and dreams, you had to be disappointed in the debate.  It was a rerun of a rerun and it lacked any suspense, drama, plot twists, or excitement.

Winner — Adam Schiff.  If you are the DNC your best hope for now of beating Trump is impeaching Trump.

 

Crazy Quarter Comes to an End

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What a quarter. Political turmoil, recession fears, trade wars, Fed indecision/confusion, daily headline risk and never-ending market moving tweets. Good grief, how much did the market suffer? Well, actually, after all was said and done both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were both up around 1.25%. No, that’s not much, but given the gloom and doom feelings that permeate the business news channels on a daily basis, it’s remarkable that stocks weren’t down double digits for the quarter.

As for today, by the close the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 96 points to finish the day at 26,916. The S&P 500 was up 14 points to close at 2,976. Gold was down $27 to trade at $1,480 per ounce, while oil was down $1.71 to trade at $54.20 per barrel WTI.

We turn the page on the 3rd quarter and now enter the final quarter of the year. Expectations are that we will see one more Fed rate cut before year end, and this upcoming earnings season is sure to cause some concern as companies continue to navigate existing and potential trade situations. Let’s catch our breath and buckle up for the final three months of the year.

Have a nice evening everyone

Jim

Stocks Lower Without Conviction

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Stocks ended lower, but without much conviction. The revised GDP number came in exactly the same as the previous revision, up 2% for the 2nd quarter of the year, and the pending home sales number was better than last month. Once again, on the economic front, though not necessarily robust, the U. S. economy is “hanging in there” despite the stress we are seeing around the globe. (Notice I didn’t mention political headlines and tweets-I just can’t).

For the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 79 points to finish the day at 26,891. The S&P 500 was down 7 points to close at 2,977. Gold was down $1.40 to trade at $1,510 per ounce, while oil was up $.06 to trade at $56.55 per barrel WTI.

Tomorrow, we get a look at durable goods orders, personal income, consumer spending, core inflation and the consumer sentiment index. Hopefully, that is enough to distract us from tweets and headlines. Let’s see how the week finishes out tomorrow.

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim