Stocks Take A Breather

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Friends

Stocks finally took a little breather today, and that is probably a good thing. The market averages have gotten very extended on a technical basis, so before we set ourselves up for another more drastic downturn, it would be nice if we just cooled down a bit. The Fed is meeting today and tomorrow, but it is not expected that anything particularly new will come out of it, but we’ll let you know what the statement and Mr. Powell have to say.

As for today, by the close the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 300 points to finish the day at 27,272. The S&P 500 was down 25 points to close at 3,207. Gold was up $15 to trade at $1,720 per ounce, while oil was up $.49 to trade at $38.68 per barrel WTI.

Though Covid-19 cases seem to be on the rise in states like Texas, California, Arizona and Florida, the markets for the time being aren’t taking any notice. It was expected that case counts would rise as states opened up, so for the time being we’ll count it as an expected occurrence, but we will keep an eye on hospitalizations which have risen here in Texas. As mentioned, today’s pause is one that was welcome. It would be good to see the economic data catch up just a little with stock prices. Oh, I’m just on old worrier, aren’t I?

Have a nice evening everyone.

 

 

Jim

Brees and Knees

Drew Brees exercised his right to freedom of speech yesterday.  And, immediate reactions and overreactions poured in from around the sports world.  Woke Nation told everyone who tags, follows, trends, hastags, Snaps, or Instagrams that Saints Nation was ablaze because of it.

The BBR staff sat around a Zoom happy hour last evening.  Dixie beers straight from NOLA were aplenty.  Rather than fret about the short term, we asked “what does this mean long term for Brees’ legacy in New Orleans?”

Our conclusion?  We think that Drew Brees will be the mayor of predominantly black New Orleans the very first time that he runs for the post.  And, we think that he should.  We’ve long thought that he would.  And, we think that eventually, he will.  He has always wanted to make a difference outside of the hash marks.

When you boil it down, Brees said that he stands with his teammates and many others seeking racial equality and justice, but that he would not kneel during the presentation of the flag during the National Anthem that honors many who protected us and fought for our freedom along the way.

Woke Nation was outraged because it’s always important to be immediately outraged.  You cannot break through the massive clutter of social media and stay there unless your take is edgy, passionate, immediate, and progressive.

Former ESPN talking head Jemele Hill tweeted, “Drew Brees is why people shouldn’t assume that just because someone white is around black people that they understand black issues.”  Jemele Hill is why people who have no idea what Brees does off of the field say that they understand Brees.  Do you know what Brees and his Brees Foundation did for many minority families and causes post-Katrina?  No, you don’t.  He wants it that way.  And, his list of charitable efforts and contributions is quite long.

LeBron James tweeted that Brees was still ignorant as to why Kaepernick took a knee and said it had zero to do with the flag.   Thankfully we’ve heard little from LeBron since he told Daryl Morey that he was ignorant about the Chinese (communist) culture and that his words could be so hurtful. That was just after they occupied Hong Kong, but before their China virus broke out, was covered up, was lied about, was contained but wasn’t, and interrupted his NBA season.   We wonder if LeBron is ignorant to the fact that Brees donated about $250k to build a state of the art special needs playground smack dab in the middle of a park in the city last year.

Aaron Rodgers stated, “It has NEVER been about an anthem or a flag. Not then. Not now. Listen with an open heart, let’s educate ourselves, and then turn word and thought into action.”  It sounds like good advice.  Maybe he should listen to what Brees is saying.  Per Packer sources, Rodgers has a difficult time listening with an open head, much less a heart, to his teammates and coaches.  The Green Bay brass like his leadership so much that they traded up, reached, and drafted what they hope will be his replacement with Rodgers still in his prime.

We could go on.  But, what does the three of Jemele, LeBron, and Aaron have in common?  They don’t know Brees.  His family, friends, business associates, teammates, civic leaders, and coaches do.  Ninety-nine percent of them hold him in the very highest regard on and off of the field.

Star receiver Michael Thomas tweeted, “He don’t know no better.”

The nation known as America protects free speech even when it contains double negatives.   It used to embrace it.  The nation known as Woke only embraces it when you speak their language.

Maybe they don’t know no better.

 

 

 

 

Peaceful

“Never underestimate the strength of an opponent.”  Clearly those are smart words of advice.  They come in handy in the boardroom, on the playground, at the office, onfield, in the gym, or in the court of public opinion.

Ask Hillary.  She found out the hard way about Donald Trump.  He outworked her.  She slept while he flew tirelessly to the Rust Belt again and again.  Dare we say that the result “shocked da world?”

It was an upset in more ways than one.  The Democratic Party and the DNC, its right arm, are master strategists.  One of their tried and true, bread and butter, plays is to constantly make the Republicans play defense.  It’s hard to score when you are always on defense.  Trump stole that page from their playbook and executed it masterfully.

Never again cried the Democrats.  They’ve been on offense the last three-plus years.  You know, racism, Russian Collusion, racism, Quid Pro Quo, racism, Impeachment, racism, and Coronavirus mismanagement come to mind.   America was just starting to get healthy.  And now, tragically George Floyd has fallen and look what has fallen into their laps.

We have to stand together for social justice.  We need to end racism.  It’s time for real change.  We doubt many disagree with any of that at all.  One cop should spend the rest of his life in jail it seems.  Three others should pack a toothbrush for a while too.

But, a funny thing happened over the weekend.  The party that turned “abortion” into “women’s wellness” went on the offense.  You watched America burn, get looted, get knocked unconscious, and get rocks thrown at it over the weekend.    CNN was comparing the “violent” protests a week ago (that violated social distancing and were sans masks) aimed at governors and asked to end the lockdown to go back to work to the “peaceful” ones that spread across America mourning the loss of George Floyd.

The playbook said to say “peaceful.”  And CNN did.  MSNBC did as well.  Half of America laughed at the mischaracterization and cried watching flat-screen TVs being stolen live on their flat-screen TVs.

When will Pelosi and Schumer and company come out and denounce the “peaceful” violent protests and the thugs that continue to commit breaking and entering, theft, assault and battery, and attempted murder crimes?

They showed up yesterday.  But, surprise, they caught the pass from the media and ran further down the field.  In a joint statement Pelosi and Schumer stated, “At this challenging time, our nation needs real leadership. The President’s continued fanning of the flames of discord, bigotry and violence is cowardly, weak, and dangerous.”  Jim Acosta(CNN) asked Trump if this is still a democracy.

And so did Hollywood.   Samual Jackson, “Did we just get Martial Lawed??! So, he just Declared War on The Public??!! It’s not 1807 this is not Rebellion!!”  Ice Cube, “Will Trump be the first President to nuke a U.S. city? Stay tuned.”  Stephen King, “Trump is politicizing the protests. ANTIFA? Give me a break. Those look like apolitical hooligans and smash-and-grab artists to me.”  He does write great fiction.

See how easy that was?  What you’re seeing on TV are peaceful protests.  Don’t worry about what you think you see, listen to what is being said.

Last night a rioter in Vegas peacefully shot a cop in the back of the head.  He’s in critical condition.  In St. Louis four policemen were shot peacefully.

Violence is the new peaceful.  Tranquil and calm are soon to follow.   Voila!

 

Science and Data Borders on Nonsense

To quote Mark Twain, “It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt.”

Perhaps you felt that way when the Democrat-led House finally found what they needed to press on to impeachment of Donald Trump.  It was a “quid pro quo.”  Did you know what that was?  Or, did it send you to the Google search bar?  Worry not, it did for many of us.

Actually it did for too many of us.  That’s why suddenly in all of the interviews of Democratic House Intelligence members and all talking heads on MSNBC stopped using the phrase.  They started using the word “bribery” instead.  Why?  It’s because the Democrats polled the public and quickly realized it was more understandable, hence an easier sell.

The Democrats always poll the public.  It’s why they are so much better at controlling the narrative of the country than the Republicans.  The old, stodgy, white, know-it-all Republicans tell you what they think.  The Democrats tell you what you think.

Which brings us to COVID-19.  There isn’t a leader of a state that is slower to open than some of the rest that doesn’t begin his or her press conference with “we are following the science and the data.”  Clearly “science” and “data” are two words that resonate with America. They asked.  They know.  It sounds so logical why wouldn’t we follow?

Except there may be one little problem.  The White House Coronavirus Task Force response administrator, Dr. Debora Birx had a direct comment or two for Robert Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  Apparently, in a two weeks ago task force meeting, Birx and others were frustrated with the CDC’s antiquated system for tracking virus data, which they worried was inflating some statistics — such as mortality rate and case count — by as much as 25 percent, according to four people present for the discussion or later briefed on it.

“There is nothing from the CDC that I can trust,” Birx reportedly said, according to two of the people present.

But that didn’t stop Dr. Birx in the last few days of separate interviews.  In the first she said that an earlier lockdown would not have helped to prevent the spread of the virus.  In a subsequent one she expressed concern that the weeks’ old lockdown was not having a positive effect in Washinton, DC., Chicago, or Los Angeles.

How about a little deductive reasoning?  If an earlier lockdown would not have helped and the current one isn’t, then why did we lockdown?  It must have been because of the science and the data?  The longer you “serve” as a government employee, especially if you have a white coat with your name embroidered on it, the more this makes sense we assume.  Having a scarf must help, too.

Finally, Birx worried aloud that “the fall could possibly bring the virus back as strong as ever.”  Coincidentally, last week, the Director of the National Hurricane Center said “this season’s storms could possibly be more numerous than last year.”  “Could possibly?”  That’s going out on a limb.

Georgia looked at the science and the data.  They said, “enough already.”  So far, so good.  Why?  No one is sure, but the answer must lie in the science and the data.

Meanwhile Trump has had it with the great state of North Carolina’s slow reopening.  In less than 100 days there is this little Republican National Convention of some interest scheduled in Charlotte.  On Monday, Governor Roy Cooper responded to Trump’s tweet, saying, “State health officials are working with the RNC and will review its plan as they make decisions about how to hold the convention in Charlotte. North Carolina is relying on data and science to protect our state’s public health and safety.”

Cooper got it backward.  He said “data and science.”  It’s “science and data.”  Maybe that’s why they are slower to open in NC than in Georgia.

The two states share a little border.  There must be some strong antiviral “stuff” on the Georgia side of that ever so thin state line.

We should ask Birx and the CDC to see what the science and the data tell us about it.

 

 

Your Body is a Temple

As America reopens we don’t seem so open with what we are willing to put into our bodies.

Is a vaccine around the corner?  Probably not, but a recent survey of Americans stated almost 50% would not want it injected into their bodies for fear of side effects.   Another reason cited was the concern that our government would be injecting a microchip along with the antibodies.

Meanwhile, speaking to reporters at the White House, President Trump revealed that he’s been taking a hydroxychloroquine pill daily for a week and a half, along with a dose of zinc. Shortly after the announcement, The Your World with Neil Cavuto anchor called the president’s remarks “stunning” and warned that the drug could kill certain individuals who consume it.

The "Great" Roger Ailes
The “Great” Roger Ailes

Trump objected to the rant and tweeted “@FoxNews is no longer the same. We miss the great Roger Ailes.  Looking for a new outlet!”  The great Roger Ailes’ body of work included a few workplace sexual harassment charges.   We digress.

Nancy Pelosi, head of one body of Congress weighed in as well.  CNN host Anderson Cooper asked, “Madam Speaker, what is your reaction to the president saying he is now taking hydroxychloroquine? Are you concerned?”  She tore up the president like an old speech.  “I would rather he not be taking something that has not been approved by the scientists, especially in his age group and in his, shall we say, weight group — morbidly obese they say.”

Pelosi knows a thing or two about putting drugs into one’s body.  It must be clear to her that botox is way safer than hydroxychloroquine.  It’s written all over her face.

In her home state, six of seven convicted sex offenders freed in Orange County, California, last month due to fears of the Chinese coronavirus crisis spreading in local jails have since been rearrested for violating their terms of release.  Most of them were taken back in for ridding their bodies of that pesky GPS tracking device.  You have to wonder if they would line up to get the vaccine.  The bright side is virus immunity.  The downside might be a tracking device.

Planned Parenthood leadership is screaming for more money during these #alonetogether times.  Seems like we may have been together during our alone time.  Maybe we are more open to what we put in our bodies?

And this morning Walmart reported first-quarter earnings.  They were impressive.  With revenue over $32 billion, they beat the Wall St estimates by over $1 billion in top-line sales.  Same-store sales were up by 10% percent.  Strong.  A Walmart spokesperson cited “considerable strength in food sales.”

At least we haven’t lost our appetite though it all.

 

A Nightmare Prop Bet

Yesterday we offered a couple of proposition bets on the NCAA playing or not this fall.  Today we offer a prop bet on the 11/3/20 election.

As #hidenbiden trends on Twitter, we have “Sleepy Joe” at plus $180 to actually NOT be the Democratic Pary’s nominee for President.  You bet $100 to win $180 that Biden goes home in August with his MyPillow.com pillow in hand.    The DNC has to fear, we repeat, has to fear that the sunset is near.

The Democratic National Committee (DNC) has delayed its convention a month, yet still plans to do it virtually.  Safety is the key they say.  Or, is it?  Why delay it a month if you aren’t physically attending to begin with?

There might have even been a glimpse into that thinking yesterday.  “First of all, our convention has to happen, because we are not officially nominating Joe Biden in order to take Donald Trump,” Xochitl Hinojosa, communications director for the DNC replied during an interview.  “So our convention is happening. There is business that has to happen.”

Or could her combo of words be a gaffe?  Hinojosa has yet to clarify her remarks.  It would be befitting of the party whose presumptive nominee spits out more gaffes daily than the Feds print money.

Take yesterday for example.   Please.  In just one video conference from Biden’s basement, he won the rare Triple Crown.  First, he needed off-camera prompting that he was on the air.  Two, he told the country that in this pandemic we have lost 85k jobs and millions of people.  “Millions of people,” he repeated.  “Millions of jobs,” he finished.  Finally, stammering, to complete the trifecta he forgot the name of one of his top medical advisers.  All three dreadful videos are captured in this article.

Just before Biden went into hiding all of his Democratic challengers obediently folded like some fine sheets made from Giza region cotton.  Crazy Bernie was the lone holdout.  But, he virtually conceded the race when he virtually conceded the race.  Sanders didn’t want to be President anyway.  He just likes to be Bernie for a while every four years.

Honestly, it was funny at the outset.  Now, it’s just said frankly.

He needs the best night’s sleep in the whole, wide world because a nightmare named Trump awaits.

Who will be the nominee if Biden is a no show? That’s a bet for another day to handicap.

For now, take “no Joe” for $100 to win $180.

 

 

 

Meet the New Press

Have you seen the selective edit of Bill Barr’s interview used by Chuck Todd on Sunday’s Meet the Press?  Yesterday, it was all of the (out)rage on conservative talk radio as well as on the Fox News Network.

And that, unfortunately, is exactly the point.  It’s already yesterday’s news.

As the Russian Collusion, Mueller Investigation, and Impeach Trump continues to fall further apart and the heat from the AG is now on the those that brought the, umm, Trumped-up charges both sides have predictably dug in once again.

No less than former President Barack Obama came out to weigh in on this heavyweight fight.  He, oh so elegantly, worried that this possible pardoning of General Flynn was a subordination of the rule of law.  Adam Schiff said that is would set the Justice Department’s credibility back 50 years to the Watergate era.  Should Schiff be the one talking about credibility?  We digress.

NBC, so regretful of their national broadcast error, said in a tweet written by no one you know that it regretted the inadvertent editing.  If you watched the show, but don’t have a Twitter account that follows NBC News, you would not ever see the insufficient regret.

President Trump, acting like a former TV star of The Apprentice called for Todd to be fired.  But, he added that he knew that he wouldn’t be.  And, that too is exactly the point.

In today’s fractured nation, both sides immediately line up behind their political preference, truth and principles be dammed.  If you don’t believe that ask either Tara Reade or the dumbfounded #metoo members.

The result, or possibly the cause as well, is that anything and everything can now be said with little to no fear of reprisal.  Journalism, as it was once known, is no longer.  Chuck Todd knowingly deleted the last two sentences of Barr’s response to support his narrative and knew beforehand that he had cover to do it.

In yesteryear, editors checked and rechecked material for accuracy before it was written or spoken.  Two sources on everything was mandatory.  Quotes were painstakingly quoted word for word.  Credibility was cherished and was the long term goal.

No more.  Now, the goal is twofold.  The first goal enables the second goal.  The first goal is ratings.  If you have ratings the ad revenue streams in.  Everyone gets fed.  Want to get fed?  Feed the base that you appeal to some red meat.   If you don’t have ratings you don’t have a show.

If Chuck Todd couldn’t carry the ball for Meet the Press he would have met the NBC human resource team just before being escorted out of the door long ago.  Today you don’t get fired for misspeaking, inaccuracy, inadvertent omissions, inadvertent misquotes, or outright lying (Brian Williams).  You can get fired if you sexually harass your makeup artist (Chis Matthews) or frequent contributors (Bill O’Reilly).  And you will get fired if your ratings don’t produce enough ad money for the time slot you compete in.

With a divided country you can almost say anything you want.  Why? Because soon you will be yesterday’s news.  And in today’s journalistic world apparently that is a good thing.

All Quiet As Investors Monitor Reopenings

Independent Investment Management designed to protect and grow your wealth.

Friends
It was a pretty quiet trading day with mixed results. Nasdaq keeps pushing towards previous highs led by the likes of Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Google, Netflix and Facebook, but many other areas of the market are struggling. The Dow traded down a couple of hundred points at the open, but recovered by midday, only to drift lower by the close. It appears that market participants are just waiting to see how the reopening of the country goes both medically and economically.
For the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 109 points to finish the day at 24,221. The S&P 500 was up a fraction to close at 2,930. Gold was down $14 to trade at $1,699 per ounce, while oil was down $.09 to trade at $24.65 per barrel WTI.
As mentioned, we are all curious as to how the big “reopening” will go. Will there be a spike in COVID-19 cases? Will the summer heat help snuff out the virus? How close are therapeutic drugs and vaccines? Are folks comfortable enough to go to restaurants, go shopping, take a flight, go to Vegas, and yes, even take a cruise? The economic and medical scenarios are endless. It truly is a moment when we just have to wait and see.
Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim

Made in America?

On June 12, 1987, United States President Ronald Reagan delivered a speech in West Berlin.  He was less than 100 yards from the Berlin Wall.   Reagan called for the General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, Mikhail Gorbachev, to open the Berlin Wall, which had separated West and East Berlin since 1961.  “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!”  Though it received relatively little media coverage at the time, it became widely known in 1989 after the fall of the Berlin Wall.  There is significant debate as to how much influence if any, the speech had on the wall coming down.  But in 1989 down it came as did communist rule and/or occupation in several eastern European countries in addition to the then Soviet Union, now Russia.

There isn’t much debate at all about the influence Donald J. Trump has had in getting a taller and wider wall built on the southern border of the U.S.  Over 125 miles are completed and by winter the guess is that nearly 500 miles will be hoisted.

Reagan wanted to unravel Soviet block countries.  Trump wants to block illegal immigration.  Both walls were or are steeped in controversy and divided opinions.

But the U.S. opinion should not be divided on two other walls.  One is The Great Wall of China and the other is the virtual firewall of the world wide web.

As U.S. companies figuratively lept over the Great Wall to take advantage of cheap Chinese labor to make and eager Chinese consumers to, well, consume U.S. products a bad thing happened.  We lost sight of right from wrong all because all we could see is the almighty dollar, and lots of them.

Forgetting for a minute of how horrifically the Chinese tyrants treat their people day in and day out, focus on the last 180 days.

China either leaked a virus out of a lab or didn’t.  Investigations, in spite of the World Health Organization(WHO), are ongoing.  Regardless, does anyone think that the virus didn’t start in China somehow? China is accused of asking the WHO in January to deny that human to human transmission could occur.  Further, they restricted travel from the Wuhan Provence to other areas of China but not to the rest of the world as the virus spread rapidly around the globe.

They recently revised the cases and deaths in the country, increasing both totals by an even 50%.   Oops, maybe a rounding error was uncovered.  Some medial experts put the actual carnage at 5x to 10x their count.

Yesterday news broke that the FBI is now investigating China as it’s feared that they have continued their widespread hacking of virtual walls.  Except this time it’s even worse.  Now they are trying to hack into pharma company computers to steal the vaccination research being done on the very virus that they let out of the lab or the soup.

Like him or hate him(and apparently there is no in-between), Trump has been telling us over and over again that China manipulates their currency, profits unfairly on trade deals, and conducts cyber-attack after attack.

Perhaps it’s time we listen closely, learn fast, and plan accordingly.

We’re in far too deep with a country that is doing everything that others did that we hated just 30 years ago.   Somehow we chose to close our eyes.

What are we going to do about it? And, when?  Soon isn’t soon enough.

“Made in America” sounds good.  “Not made in China” sounds essential.

 

The NYT Said So.

You’ve heard of Tara Reade by now, haven’t you?  Reade has leveled serious sexual assault allegations against Joe Biden.  She was a former Congressional staff member of his and claims that he assaulted her back in 1993.

In recent weeks her willingness to amplify the claim has gained some steam as a video of her mother calling into the CNN Larry King show back then with a veiled accusation that fits the allegation and timing has surfaced.  Additionally, a couple of her friends have spoken on the record saying that Reade extemporaneously confided in them about the incident back then.  She has even asked Biden to release all of his files from that time period.

The Trump labeled “failing” New York Times investigated and wrote an extensive piece on it.  Their conclusion?  They found no evidence that Biden had done any such thing.  Wonders never cease.

And, now it just got more serious.  The Trump labeled “fake news” CNN devoted a total of 14 minutes and 54 seconds of air time to the developing story so far.  That’s 15 minutes and 54 seconds more air time than ABC and NBC combined have spent on it.  And, it’s 13 minutes and 51 seconds more than CBS has spent on it as well.  But, it’s gaining oxygen.

The DNC circulated talking points on the accusation to operatives weeks ago.

Stacey Abrams, who lost a race for Governor of Georgia, used them by the book last evening.  On CNN’s Don Lemon show she said that every woman needs to be heard.  She said every allegation needs to be investigated, and that the NYT did so, and that they found nothing.  She said that she believes in Joe Biden.  She said, she said, she said.  She didn’t say that she is or wants to be on a shortlist for his VP nominee.  But, she either is or wants to be.

Hillary Clinton, no stranger to knowing people who have been accused of unwanted advances outside of marriage, endorsed “maybe not so sleepy back then” Joe Biden just yesterday.  She believes women should be heard and should come forward.  Jennifer Flowers, who she labeled as a “bimbo,” would be one exception.  It seems like Ms. Reade is at least the second one.

#metoo is #mia.

Does the DNC care?  Sure it does.  It went all-in on Joe Biden as the most likely candidate to defeat Trump.  That is the entire objective regardless of who gets to call the White House home.  Don’t believe that?  Ask Bernie and a host of minions that fell in line behind Joe as the nomination process’ orchestrated collapse went down with an assist from the enemy that no one can see.

Congress cannot investigate Biden on this as he isn’t in public office.   But the police can.  Reade filed a report last week in DC about the 1993 alleged incident.

If Congress could, would it be as diligent as they were for Judge Kavanaugh?  Christine Blasey Ford had to be believed a host of Democrats said.    Blasey Ford was labeled as courageous.  As of now, no one from the left has come out in support of Reade’s bravery.  Reade hasn’t been labeled yet, but we trust one is in the works.  The war on women works in mysterious ways.

Assuming Biden soldiers on, his VP choice, given his age and declining cognitive ability, is an important one.

Is it a bit odd that months ago he announced that if he got the nomination his VP choice would be a female?  Pandering much?

A few months back Biden apologized for all of his actions saying “personal space is important, and I get it.”

Case closed?  Not yet.  It actually was just opened.