Friends

As you know, tariffs are the
Presidents favorite blunt instrument to influence behavior, but markets aren’t
particularly fond of them. The President’s threat to impose tariffs on Mexico
if they don’t become more active/helpful in the immigrant crisis sent stocks
tumbling down.

For
the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 355 points to finish the day
at 24,814. The S&P was down 37 points to close at 2,752. Gold was up $18 to
trade at $1,310 per ounce, while oil was down $3.33 to trade at $53.26 per
barrel WTI.

The correction that we
referenced earlier in the week continues and trade war headlines continue to
feed the bears. It was a difficult month of May and now we enter the dog days
of summer. Stay tuned, we’ll try to keep you cool and informed over the coming
months.

Have a great weekend
everyone.

Jim

Friends

It was a somewhat soft beginning to the week for stocks, as
more than real selling pressure, there simply does not seem to be much of an
appetite to buy. The continuous drumbeat of trade war headlines continues to weigh
on the markets collective psyche while economic data continues to be mixed. We
get more earnings from retailers over the next couple of weeks including Home
Depot tomorrow. We continue to see the department stores struggle, but Walmart
had good numbers last week, and we’ll get a look at Target on Wednesday.

As for today, by the close the Dow Jones Industrial Average
was down 84 points to finish the day at 25,679. The S&P 500 was down 19
points to close at 2,840. Gold was up $2 to trade at $1,277 per ounce, while
oil was up $.40 to trade at $63.16 per barrel WTI.

The old “sell in May, and go away” adage appears to be
working so far this Spring (as with any old Wall Street adage, you could flip a
coin just as successfully), but as we have noted this month’s weakness could be
attributed to trade headlines as much as any real valuation risk or earnings
weakness. Whatever the reason, stocks have floundered somewhat recently and the
bulls are searching for a reason to buy.

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim

Friends

As we mentioned after yesterday’s market dip, we are on
headline watch and that a simple tweet can move stocks in either direction.
Well, this morning we got the “Chinese want to make a deal” tweet from the President
and stocks quickly moved into positive territory. As further comments from the
White House seemed to confirm that talks were back on for later this week,
stocks moved comfortably into positive territory. But, the enthusiasm waned and
stocks drifted lower into a disappointing close.

For the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 2
points to close at 25,967. The S&P 500 was down 4 points to finish the day
at 2,879. Gold was down $4 to trade at $1,281 per ounce, while oil was up $.73
to trade at $62.13 per barrel WTI.

Positive trade headlines have become less and less effective
as more and more doubt creeps into the actual validity of such headlines. On
the other hand, negative headlines about the Chinese trade situation sends
ripples of fear through the markets and stocks seem much more susceptible to
such headlines. Before doubt was introduced into the trade proceedings this
week, it appeared that the stock market was in a position to actually melt up
given the comfortable environment for stocks (employment, inflation, GDP,
earnings and tailwinds), but now it feels like the downside to a lack of a
trade deal is considerably higher than the upside of achieving a trade deal. In
other words, the risk/reward equation appears to have changed this week. Stay
tuned.

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim

Friends

It’s a big earnings week with Google (Alphabet) announcing
their earnings after the close today and Apple after the close tomorrow. Google
shares posting new all-time highs today would seem to be in a precarious
position going into the release, while Apple has also had quite an advance so
far in 2019. It will be interesting to see if those stocks are fully pricing in
good news, or can the companies exceed expectations enough to actually push
shares higher?

As for today, things were mainly quiet, and by the close the
Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 10 points to finish the day at 26,554. The
S&P 500 was up 3 points to close at 2,943. Gold was down $6 to trade at
$1,282 per ounce, while oil was up $.32 to trade at $63.62 per barrel WTI.

Earnings are front and center at the moment, just at the
moment stocks are touching all-time new highs. A bit of a high bar for
Corporate America to clear just when things were supposed to be getting more
difficult for them. Should be an interesting week. Stay tuned.

Jim

Jim

Friends

At first blush, our first look at 1^st quarter GDP
was a bit of an eye opener. The economy grew at 3.2% in the 1^st
quarter which was quite a bit better than the 2.5% that analysts were expecting.
But, after further analysis the bears among us noticed that a good portion of
the growth was due to inventory build and that underlying demand had weakened.
Remember the days when a good number was just, well, a good number? Bond market
participants immediately went with the more cynical view as bond prices rose,
while yields fell. But, stocks had a relatively good day. Moderate growth with
low interest rates and no inflation has been just fine for stock investors for
quite some time.

Anyway, by the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was
up 81 points to finish the day at 26,543. The S&P 500 was up 13 points to
close at 2,939. Gold was up $8 to trade at $1,288 per ounce, while oil was down
$2.32 to trade at $62.89 per barrel WTI.

On the earnings front, Intel, Chevron and Exxon Mobil
disappointed, while Amazon did its thing and delivered solid results. As busy
as this week was, next week is the busiest week on the earnings calendar. We’ll
see reports from Alphabet (Google), Apple, GM, McDonalds, Conoco Phillips,
Merck, Pfizer, Kellogg, DowDupont and hundreds more. As we have seen the
earnings reports and the subsequent share price reactions have been very mixed.
My overall impression so far is that earnings are probably a little better than
we expected, but share prices were already reflecting that, with the advance we
have seen since the beginning of the year. Also noteworthy is that companies
are still providing very cautious guidance going forward, and that too has been
a bit of a headwind for stocks over that past couple of weeks. All in all,
though, here we are at all-time highs. As I said, stocks don’t mind a slow
growth, low inflation, and low interest rate environment. We’ll let you know
how next week’s busy earnings schedule plays out.

Have a great weekend everyone.

Jim

Friends

Today’s earnings releases produced a mixed bag of share
price reactions. Johnson & Johnson had a very nice earnings beat and for
the most part the stock reacted positively. United Healthcare had what looked like
a nice earnings scorecard but the shares, after rallying initially, spent the
day down significantly. Bank of America had a nice earnings beat, but one buoyed
by cost efficiency more than revenue growth. Nevertheless, the shares fell
early but recovered to end the day mainly unchanged. As I said, a very mixed
bag of results, and not all that surprising given the market action so far this
year.

As for stocks in general, for the day the Dow Jones
Industrial Average was up 67 points to close at 26,452. The S&P 500 was up
1 point to finish the day at 2,907. Gold was down $12 to trade at $1,279 per
ounce, while oil was up $.73 to trade at $64.13 per barrel WTI.

The earnings parade continues after the close, and over the
next 2 days, before we break for the holiday weekend on Friday. In the meantime
we’ll monitor the results and how the companies’ shares react in price. As seen
today, there is a lot of nuance with these earnings releases, and so much of
the stock price action is predicated on what type of move the shares have
experienced going into this earnings season. Stay tuned.

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim

Friends

Market participants waited breathlessly for the Fed Minutes
today (not really), as stocks just drifted aimlessly until the release. Not
much changed after the release as stocks tilted quietly to the upside until the
close of the session. Basically, the Fed minutes indicated that most of the Fed
officials don’t see a likelihood that rates would need to be raised for the
rest of the year, but they did not rule it out completely. On the other hand,
contrary to recent market belief, the Fed officials did not indicate that any
rate cuts were likely for 2019. Of course, the Fed remains data dependent.

As for stocks, by the close the Dow Jones Industrial Average
was up 6 points to finish the day at 26,157. The S&P 500 was up 10 points
to close at 2,888. Gold was up $4 to trade at $1,312 per ounce, while oil was
up $.50 to trade at $64.48 per barrel WTI.

As recently mentioned, a few big banks kick off earnings
season on Friday as JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo get things started. Then,
next week we get releases from the likes of Goldman Sachs, Citi, Bank of
America, United Health, Pepsico, Morgan Stanley, American Express,
Schlumberger, Honeywell, Travelers, and Union Pacific just to mention a few.
Earnings season is going to be very interesting and very important. Stay tuned.

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim

Friends

The jobs number was a little better than expected with
196,000 new jobs created in March, but not so strong as to cause concern among
market participants that the Fed might be tempted to rethink their dovish stance.
The unemployment rate remained at 3.8%, while average hourly earnings creeped
slightly higher and sits at a 3.2% gain year over year. The data was strong
enough to calm recession/slowdown fears, yet not too strong to stir inflation
fears (and Fed hawkishness).

Stocks reacted in a positive fashion with the Dow Jones
Industrial Average up 40 points for the day to close at 26,425. The S&P 500
was up 13 points to finish the day at 2,892. Gold was up $1 to trade at $1,296
per ounce, while oil was up $1.21 to trade at $63.31 per barrel WTI.

The economy appears to be in decent shape, the Fed is in a
dovish mood, and stocks are closing in on all-time highs. Quite a setup as we
head into earnings season. Stay tuned.

Have a great weekend everyone.

Jim

Friends

It was quite a nice start to the second quarter for the bulls as stocks rallied at the open and added to those gains as the trading session wore on. The rally was broad based with financials and industrials joining the party along with technology shares. Staples and other interest rate sensitive shares took a breather today as longer term rates ticked up a bit. All in all, the bulls seem to firmly hold the high ground as we move into the second quarter. Of course, the upcoming earnings season will begin to separate the men from the boys. Though we are going into this earnings season with muted expectations, rising share prices would actually make stocks more vulnerable to inferior earnings releases.

For the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 329
points to finish the day at 26,258. The S&P 500 was up 32 points to close
at 2,867. Gold was down $5 to trade at $1,293 per ounce, while oil was up $1.50
to trade at $61.64 per barrel WTI.

It is a busy week for economic data including today’s retail
sales number that was not good. Surprisingly, though, January’s lousy number
was revised quite nicely higher. The ISM manufacturing number was actually
pretty good. We’ll see durable goods tomorrow and ADP private payrolls, and ISM
non-manufacturing on Wednesday. Then, on Friday, we get the all-important
non-farm payroll number. Remember, last month’s jobs number was way less than
expected, so this week’s number will be extremely interesting. Early estimates
are for about 177,000 new jobs were created in March. Stay tuned, it’s going to
be a busy week.

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim

Friends

After a terrible 4^th quarter of 2018 where we saw
that worst December for stocks since the 1930’s, market participants were the
recipient of a stellar 1^st quarter of 2019. After the Dow had tumbled
nearly 10 % just in December, highlighted by a 2.35% drop on Christmas Eve
alone, we saw the new year begin with a more than 2% drop on January 3^rd.
 Needless to say the psyche of investors was challenged at that point.
But, from that moment on stocks began to recover and over the next three months
we erased Decembers losses. We haven’t yet made it to new highs but at least
some of the bad taste left in the mouths of investors from Q4 2108 has been
washed away.

On this final trading day of the quarter, the Dow Jones
Industrial Average was up 211 points to close at 25,928. The S&P 500 was up
18 points to finish the day at 2,834. Gold was up $1 to trade at $1,296 per
ounce, while oil was up $.91 to trade at $60.21 per barrel WTI.

It was a great 1^st quarter for both stocks and
bonds, but as we look into the 2^nd quarter of the year we face some
challenges. The yield curve has inverted and economic slowdown appears to be at
hand. We will be entering an interesting earnings season over the next 30 days,
one that comes with lowered expectations and much angst. The Fed is firmly in
the dovish camp now, but that comes with concerns of its own with regards to
the Fed’s views about the economy going forward. But, as we have seen in recent
years TINA might come back in play, where stocks are the only game in town. For
now, let’s enjoy the quarter that is now in the books and be ready to get back
at it next week.

Have a great weekend everyone.

Jim