MLB Changes Its Pitch

Spring has sprung in the lower half of the continental 48.  That means the sound of the crack of a baseball off of a Major League wooden bat will soon be heard in 30 parks around the US and Canada, and not just in spring training sites in Arizona and Florida.  All together now, “and its one, two, three strikes and you’re out at the old ball game.”

Well that one, two, or three strikes “thing” will be good for MLB pitchers through 2019 anyway.   But, when late Spring of 2020 rolls around a new rule will mandate that a pitcher, whenever brought into the game, must face a minimum of three batters.  Or, he must end the half inning unless he cannot due to an “incapacitating illness.”  If your job was a situational relief specialist, brought in to get one or two batters out (say lefty on lefty), the commissioner has some nice parting gifts for you.

So why the change?  MLB is on a mission to speed the games up by reducing the down times.  Down times occur basically anytime the ball isn’t in live play. A pitching change for one batter and then another change for another batter creates a lot of down time.   For 2019, for example, they are further reducing the TV timeout time between innings.  It’s only a whopping five seconds from 2:05 to 2:00, but two years ago there was no such stopwatch.  Mound visits by managers and/or catchers now max out at 5 per game down from 6 as well.

We applaud MLB for joining the 21st century, all be it, 19 years later than that frightening 2000 countdown.  But, why wait till 2020 for the three batter minimum rule?  MLB says that they want to give managers a year to adjust to the new strategy.  Maybe they should have thought about the new rule in 2018 then, and put it into play in 2019?  Or, in 2017, or 2016.  You get where we are going.

When Al Gore invented the internet 30ish years ago, after somebody invented computers, the world sped up.  Video games are action packed and high scoring.  Anything that you want you can “Google” it in milliseconds.  Amazon can deliver packages faster than Fed Ex can.  Baseball is isn’t playing catch.  It’s playing catch up.  In other words, its past time that The National Pastime look at itself to recapture a generation and a half of its youth that might be at the lost and not found.

Before you know it they might even address that silly DH in the American League, but not in the National League rule.  Can you imagine if the NBA had the three-point line in the Western Conference and not the Eastern?  Come on man!

The good old boys that ran baseball lost the good new boys (and girls) attention.  It’s all about the consumer if you are trying to build a brand to build market share, ratings, and sustainability.

We have mixed feelings about the three batter rule. And, if you are going to do it, do it now.   But we are glad baseball is trying to get off of the back pages of the three newspapers that still print daily.  Heck, soon they might even be trending on Twitter.

 

 

 

I Have Another Story and a Moral Thereof.

Almost to this day a year has passed since I went from flying about 75,000 miles on business trips a year for 25 plus years to not.  Sure I’ve flown a bit for getaways in the last twelve months.  One such getaway was last week’s Orlando trip.  As I got into my seat for the flight back the news broke that Boeing 737 Max 9’s were being grounded in some countries due to similarities surrounding two recent crashes.  Jeez I thought.  Actually a stronger word came to mind.

Compounding the angst was a three sided laminated foldout in the seat pocket directly in front of me.  It spoke to the information and safety features of this particular plane.  This plane was a Boeing 737 Max 8.  Hmm.   Way too close for comfort I thought.   And, sure enough, a day later the FAA took both the 8’s and the 9’s out of the sky pending further investigation.

Surely you have heard someone say “air travel is safer than driving a car.”  Or you might have heard “you have a greater chance of being struck by lightning than dying in a plane crash.”  That all sounds good until it doesn’t sound good at all.  It didn’t sound good to me then, and it doesn’t now.

Why not?  Well, it turns out that a great friend of mine was on a Delta flight about 25 years ago that essentially crashed landed, overshot the runway, and ended up under the fence at the end of the field.  Luckily he walked away from it.  It also reminded me of a flight a dozen years back to sunny and warm Milwaukee.  The flight attendant had just announced over the PA that I was on board that day and this was the flight that would take me over a million air miles. Surely they have some award for insanity?   A partly cloudy ascent gave way to more clouds when a bolt out of the gray very brightly and strongly hammered the wing.  Lightening had struck the plane. I saw it all too vividly from my emergency window seat.   Remember, “you have a greater chance of getting struck by lightning that dying in a plane crash.”

I wonder what the saying is about dying from lightning in a plane?   Surely the words “gosh darn” or maybe a bit worse would be included.  The plane shook off the shake that the bolt put through the fuselage and it was if nothing had happened.  Although it got very quiet when the copilot quickly exited the cockpit and did a visual inspection of all that he could see as soon as he could see it.

What’s the moral of the story?  Air travel is very safe until it’s not.  I don’t miss flying and all of the before, during, and after incivility that accompanies it.  No I don’t, not at all.

Fly safely.

5th Time is a Charm

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The fifth time was a charm. After 5 tries since the 4th quarter of last year, the bulls finally penetrated the 2800 (2815 level to be exact) on the S&P, and were able hold it into the close. The economic data was mixed with consumer confidence and job openings stronger than expected, while the industrial production number was softer than expected. All this basically leads to the Fed being able to be “patient” with regards to monetary policy, but in the meantime the bulls can point to the fact that recession talk might have been premature.

As for today, by the close the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 139 points to finish the day at 25,849. The S&P 500 was up 14 points to close at 2,822. Gold was up $6 to trade at $1,301 per ounce, while oil was down $.18 to trade at $58.43 per barrel WTI.

Despite the woes for Boeing, which weighed on the Dow, it was a good week for the bulls. Now that we have closed above 2815 on a daily and weekly basis, let’s see if the bulls have cleared a runway to the old highs of 2940 on the S&P. The FOMC meets next week, but we obviously don’t expect the Fed to change interest rates at this point. They might give us more clarity on the quantitative tightening (bond run off) program, which could add to the overall dovish tone that the Chair has exhibited recently. We’ll let you know how things play out next week. Stay tune.

Jim

No Spring Chicken, But Still Pleased as Punch

Yesterday one of our esteemed writers turned a, in his mind, very young 59 years of age.  An early morning workout gave way to some reading.  Time of the essence allowed for only 12 holes of golf as a fun dinner with family awaited.  And indeed the day was enjoyable.  When asked about the day he said that he was as pleased as punch with how it went.  However, while pleased as punch sounds good, it comes from a macabre origin.  Its meaning is derived from the bizarre really.

Meaning: To be very happy
History: A 17th century puppet show for adults called Punch and Judy featured a puppet named Punch who almost always hurt people. The act of killing or hitting characters with his stick (know as a slapstick) brought him pleasure, so he felt pleased with himself afterwards.  Later the show morphed into a lighter, more children’s friendly event, and Punch’s character thankfully became a friendly one.

As one ages either gracefully or not so gracefully(like the beast known as Punch) into the fall season of their lives, their existence is sometimes referred to as being “no spring chicken.”  This seems less than flattering.  Savvy New England chicken buyers agree.

Meaning: Someone who is past his prime
History: New England chicken farmers generally sold chickens in the spring, so the chickens born in the springtime yielded better earnings than the chickens that survived the winter. Sometimes, farmers tried to sell old birds for the price of a new spring chicken. Clever buyers complained that the fowl was “no spring chicken,” and the term came to represent anyone past their prime.

While you may not be as pleased as punch to be looked at as no spring chicken, remember, “age is only a number.”  So says some wise owls.

We wonder why the bigger the birthday number the more likely it’s referred to as only a number?  Actually, we don’t wonder.  We know.

The day is young.  It’s time to get after it.

 

 

 

 

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Quote the Raven “Speed Kills”

The month ago NFL trade of eleven year veteran, Baltimore Raven Joe Flacco to the Denver Broncos became official yesterday as the new fiscal year of the NFL began.  There were several other trades and a bevy of free agents signing.  To say the pace of play was fast would be understating it all.

Lamar Jackson, the 2018 first round pick and late year starter for the Ravens, was the beneficiary of the trade as the deck was cleared for him to take the full-time starting quarterback position.  The Ravens’ brass hopes that he will be the franchise’s next, well, franchise quarterback.  To say the pace of LJ’s 2018 on field play was fast would be understating it as well.

However, to say his Mercedes-Benz pace was 105 mph on Tuesday would be exactly accurate.  Like a stop watch at the combine, Lamar provided video proof of his fast driving.  He decided to video the needle on 105 and post it on Instagram complete with the no seat belt dash-board indicator on as well as his tapping on the steering wheel to the selected tune of his choice.

On Wednesday the 22-year-old tweeted out an apology saying that “he had made a bad decision.”  We wonder if the bad decision was driving 105 mph, the unhinged seat belt, the phone recording while driving, or the world-wide web post of it all.

Some surely see this as a problem.  We see this as an opportunity for Lamar, his agent, and the Ravens however.  Commercial gain from endorsements, advertisements, or public service announcements can come from this.  Some awesome, and some not as awesome, possibilities follow.

  1. The Raven’s film Lamar getting in the car, buckling up, and driving exactly the posted speed.  Lamar looks into the close up of the camera and quote the  Raven “nevermore.”  A CLIO award awaits.
  2. A video of Lamar’s pure on field speed and elusiveness running in to the endzone for a touchdown fades to a dated video of his 105 mph dash.  The camera cuts to Lamar who states that “speed on the field and off the field kills.  I only speed on grass these days.”  This one is tricky due to the potential dual interpretation of the word “grass” however.
  3. Adidas has Lamar under contract.  They could film him running in his three stripe cleats and have him say “the only thing faster than me in my car is me in my adi kicks.”  Ok, ok, this one needs some work.  But, impossible is nothing.
  4. Mercedes-Benz could film him calmly walking out of the airport from his arrival gate spliced with OJ Simpson’s Hertz commercial running through the airport 30 years ago.  The tag line could be “why run and rent when you can Benz and speed?”  Ok, ok this one needs work too.  But, how about those rental choices from Hertz in 1978?  Fairmont, Mustang, or LTD anyone?
  5. Lamar could go rogue and video himself going 105 the next time he so chooses, and seat belt be damned again.  He could turn the smart phone on to himself and say to the average Joe, “don’t give me any Flaccover this!”  Ah, these kids these days.  Instant Instagram fortune awaits.

We’ll be back after these words from our fine sponsors.

 

 

It’s March Madness and SWA is Flying

Southwest Airlines ran the popular ad campaign “Need to Get Away for a While?” for several successful years.  In the ads paid actors would say or do something, usually in a business, meeting, or social environment that would cause the room to collectively pause and wonder “did that just happen?”

Yesterday we learned that an often paid actor, Felicity Huffman, paid her way around the college entrance process to get one of her children into a school of higher education that they otherwise would not have qualified for.  Huffman, one of the housewife character actors of Desperate Housewives fame, was a desperate mom it seems.  She wasn’t alone in this scheme that was exposed, not by a long shot.  SWA has non stops from LAX to nearly anywhere.

It amazes us how often big time personalities, either by hook or crook, fall flat on their face.  Did that just happen?

Totally unrelated, it was only Monday when the NFL network had a get away moment.  Charley Casserly, former longtime NFL GM for the Redskins and the Texans, is a “front office/GM expert” for the network.  The NFL Network rolls old Charley out when they need the “why” answered after the “what” has occurred.  Charley was asked why the Cowboys didn’t get the ball to effective wide receiver Cole Beasley more last year.  His answer is right here.  “The Cowboys threw the ball to Dez Bryant too much last year.”  The only problem with the answer is that Dez Bryant didn’t play one snap for Dallas in 2018, not one.  The former star was cut last summer.  Southwest has some great fares to The Bahamas right now.

A few years back during the TBS portion of the NCAA March Madness telecast Charles Barkley called Duke star Justise Winslow’s name just a bit wrong. He called him Winston Justice and knew no differently.  But to one up himself a couple of years later he was asked why a certain NCAA Final 64 team (the name escapes us) trailed another at halftime.  He noted that team’s star player needed to pick up his game in the second half.  The only problem was that said star player had missed this game and the prior two months due to injury.  What might Sir Charles have in store for us this year?

Barkley is paid to be Barkley.  He is quite good at it.  Casserly is paid to be an expert.  He is quite bad at it.  And Huffman illegally paid and/or bribed and/or cheated to get her child in college.  That’s the worst of it.

Given the Madness, it must be March.  Southwest Airlines flight 123 now boarding.

And the Pendulum Swung

Sixth grade science teaches us that a pendulum can only swing so far in one direction.  It’s momentum is slowed, then eventually halted, by its center of gravity and gravity itself.  That wise professor Nancy Pelosi gave several freshman Democrats a refresher course in just how that pendulum “thing” works yesterday.

Just six weeks or so after hugs and smiles and poses for group pictures had the Democrat freshman representatives positively giddy about a progressive future without greenhouse gasses and that gas-bag Donald Trump guy able to get in the way, Nancy became the center of gravity.  And, suddenly the swing to the left met gravity.

Alexandria Octavio Cortez (AOC) has The Green New Deal and dozens of other far left newbies had the pitchforks and lanterns.  The hunt for green October and the head (figuratively) of Donald Trump was on.

Nancy cleared her throat and in her best Lee Corso voice, pencil in hand, said “not so fast my friends on the left.”  That’s right.  It took a left coast, left leaning liberal to slow the roast.  She said, “I’m not for impeachment. Impeachment is so divisive to the country that unless there’s something so compelling and overwhelming and bipartisan, I don’t think we should go down that path, because it divides the country. And he’s just not worth it.”   And just like that the old guard put the new guard in place all the while taking a cheap shot at The Donald.

And just like that the old guard put the new guard in place in 2014.  Then it was John Boehner, who took the gavel from Nancy, and Mitch McConnell who relegated the Tea Party incoming revolution to the last row of the Senate and House floors.   Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and a band of brothers had the music momentum stopped.  These upstarts had gone just far enough.  Rhinos forever!  And just like that the darn center of gravity, like Father Time, remained undefeated.  The pendulum headed back towards the middle.

So, where to from here?  AOC and her nearly 60 new Democrat friends feel empowered by the progressive wave that retook the house.  Surely they can push the Green New Deal.  Cost might be a problem though.  Estimates to actually act on its merits range from 40 trillion to nearly 100 trillion, or between 8 and 25 times the yearly federal revenues tax dollars received.

The cost of a Chick-fil-A meal is far less than that.  Sarah Palin left an aforementioned Tea Party rally in 2013 and proudly bought a couple of no. 1 value meals. It made international headlines as a show of support for the conservative christian right led Tea Party and the conservative christian right leadership of Chick-fil-A.  The restaurant chain was under fire then because they closed (and still do) on Sundays.  Heathens demand that the right give them the right to chicken seven days a week.

Support came to the left led Green New Deal yesterday when noted nutritionist, right coast NY Mayor Bill de Blasio proudly announced that soon NY public school lunches would enact, drum roll please, “meatless Mondays.”  Surely this will be a great first step in reducing those pesky emissions all the while helping our young eat healthier.  Government sure knows how to look out for its tired and its poor who know no better.

Perhaps the long running,successful, cow survival campaign by ChickFilA is now dated.  In place of “Eat Mor Chikin” sparing cows it could be “Eat Mor Letus.”  You would save (not kill) two animals with one slogan.  PETA would be so proud.

Speaking of “Letus,” let us pray that sanity returns soon.

Or, it returns at least before the cows come home.

 

 

 

Ten Piece Nuggets- Sports at Random

This AM we gladly serve you our ten piece nuggets from sunny Orlando.   Actually it’s only going to be a few nuggets shy of ten.   One, it’s Lent.  Two, the Keto diet, being all the rage, makes us want to slim down a bit.   Three, we have a plane to catch back to our world headquarters in foggy, soggy, and cloudy H Town.

If we didn’t know better we might investigate who switched Portland and Houston’s spot in the continental 48.

Time ticks.  Time for nuggets.

  1.  We took in some Bay Hill Arnold Palmer Invitational golf on Saturday.   It’s a beautiful, well maintained, difficult track.   Arnold had/has quite a thing going here.
  2. Last year’s winner Rory McIlroy roared to within one stroke of the lead by nightfall Saturday.  His 31 back nine in last year’s final round made him yesterday’s strong favorite to repeat.  Plus the competitor’s resumes paled by comparison.
  3. But, starting in the final group Sunday, Rory forgot to roar.  Francisco Molinari started the day five back and won by a clear two strokes with a sizzling 64.   A closer look at McIlroy when he starts the final round in the last group is eye opening.   He’s only converted one of those golden chances at victory.  And, he’s been there sixteen times.  Rory needs a dose of Alex Baldwin’s character in Glengarry, Glen Ross.  A.B.C.  Always Be Closing.
  4.  The Will Wade LSU basketball mess is, well, a mess.  His refusal to meet with his bosses to discuss the taped and leaked conversation with yet another basketball “handler” was the impetus to the dreaded indefinite suspension purgatory.   It says here that he has coached his last game at LSU. Too bad too as he turned the worst, two years ago in the SEC, team into a first place finish.
  5.  He was the best coach for the money that LSU could buy.  Unfortunately some of his players sound like they were the best Wade could buy as well.   College basketball is a dirty business.  Now LSU is warming the water to wash their hands of it.
  6. So Antonio Brown, a Pittsburgh Steeler, and nearly a Buffalo Bill, is now an Oakland Raider which soon will be the Vegas Raiders.   He cost the Raiders a third and fifth round pick and a lot of dough too.
  7. Didn’t Oakland trade Amari Cooper for a first round pick midseason?   So, net net they have an older drama queen wide receiver that is quite expensive and a one minus a three and a five.   Sounds like Jon Gruden is spinning his wheels to us.
  8. Expensive wide receivers don’t win championships.  Value does.   Like it or not, and we like it, Pittsburgh puts team ahead of individual talent.  We read an analysis of the trade that spoke to the Steelers being the big loser in this.   We think quite the opposite.
  9. We aren’t big NBA fans.  But.  But, in the span of about nine days the Houston Rockets have beaten the Warriors, the Raptors, and the 76ers.  And, two of those three were road games.   That’s pretty impressive.
  10.  Meanwhile, every time we look at ESPN we get this incessant Lakers and LeBron  gibberish.  At least they can let the Antonio Brown story go now.  Disney owns ESPN.  It’s always a show about a character with them.
  11.  Ok, ok.  It was ten nuggets after all.  We don’t like dieting anymore than you do. And please excuse the no feature picture.   Our editor is busy taking pictures with Mickey Mouse.  It’s always a show about a character with him.

Jobs Data and The Past 10 Years

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Friends

10 years ago today (actually March 9th 2009) in the midst of the great financial crisis, stocks finally bottomed after a more than 50% drop in a year and a half. At that moment it was the second more than 50% drop in the stock market in less than 10 years. I had been through the crash of October 1987 (at Merrill Lynch at the time), and the dot.com bubble bursting bear market which began in early 2000, but without a doubt the financial crisis bear market of 2008 and early 2009 was the worst period of time in my 34 years in the business. It really wasn’t about the stock market in 2008, it was more about the survival of the financial system. When liquidity disappeared, stocks were the only liquid game in town, and thus were under relentless selling pressure for months. In 2000, the dot.com craze pushed stocks to unsustainable levels. The subsequent downturn was a stock market event. But, not 2008 and 2009. Stocks were reasonably priced at the time. Unfortunately real estate was not.

This daily update was born in October of 2008. In an attempt to keep lines of communication open with our clients, at a time when no one really knew what was unfolding and what the future held, we decided that the only way to keep everyone informed and up to date on a daily basis was with an email. It would be impossible to talk to everyone every day, so this was our alternative. Well, as we found out, it became a comfort to our clients to hear from us each and every day, and though we didn’t necessarily have any answers, at least we kept them informed about what was going on. And, there was a lot going on. The Fed, Congress and the President all were grasping for answers, but solutions seemed difficult to agree upon. In the end, we got through it all and the S&P 500 is now more than 4 times higher than it was on March 9, 2009. Along the way, our clients seemed to enjoy the daily updates even when we weren’t in time of crisis, and thus I still try to write an update every day. I hope you continue to enjoy them.

As for today, stocks slumped after a surprisingly weak jobs number, but recovered most of those losses in the last hour of trading. Sure, the unemployment rate fell to 3.8% and wages continue to climb, but 20,000 new jobs was way lower than expected. Again, January’s number was way higher than expected, so averaged out the numbers seem about right.

For the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 23 points to close at 25,450. The S&P 500 was down 5 points to finish the day at 2,743. Gold was up $13 to trade at $1,300 per ounce, while oil was down $.57 to trade at $56.09 per barrel WTI.

We’ll leave it there for today. Let’s see what next week has in store for us.

Have a great weekend everyone.

Jim

If You Are Gonna Talk the Talk

Last week seemed to have been filled with a bit more rancor than most.  So much so that we wrote this.

After a week of too much misdirected, failed, or ill-advised passion we decided to end it on a somewhat lighter note that allows us to forget for a bit all of the above.  Sports.  Now that’s passion directed in the right direction 24/7.  Combatants on any field, arena, or track of competition bring out the love of the game in all of us.  Their actions and subsequent achievements are plenty enough to gain a sense of the love for their chosen filed of dreams.  But, sometimes their passion spills over into their words as well.  Below we offer to you in no particular order some inspirational quotes from some intense sport folks.

Well, today we offer you a few savage quotes.  Savage quotes are like verbal daggers in your back.  Except, in the often heated moment of sports and its resultant aftermath, these sharp words are aimed directly at the intended target’s heart.   In the coming weeks we’ll bring you more as they are plentiful and never disappoint.  For now, enjoy the beast mode bravado of these seven quotes below.

  1.  “But the real tragedy was that fifteen hadn’t been colored in yet.”  —Steve Spurrier then head coach at South Carolina on the Auburn dorm room fire       that, among other things, burned 20 books.
  2.  “I dunno, I’ve never smoked any Astro Turf.”  —Tug McGraw on being asked if he preferred natural grass or artificial turf.
  3.   “Because there are no fours.”  —Antoine Walker when asked why he took so many threes.
  4.  ” I will eat your children.”  —Mike Tyson spoke directly to Lennox Lewis in the prefight weigh in.  Lewis knocked him out when they fought.
  5.   “These are my new shoes.  They are good shoes.  They won’t make you rich like me, they won’t make you rebound like me, and they definitely won’t         make you handsome like me, they’ll only make you have shoes like me.  That’s it.” — Charles Barkley on his new signature shoes.
  6.  “I’m not worried about the Sacramento Queens.”  —Shaquille O’Neal responded in the heat of the 2002-2003 season when the Kings were the upstart   team and suddenly popular choice to end the Lakers dominance in the west.
  7.   “All he does is talk. He’s terrible, and you can print that. I was happy when he was in the game.”  —Bill Belicheck unloaded this dandy right after the   2004 Super Bowl when his secondary held Freddie Mitchell to one catch.  Mitchell was running his mouth in the weeks leading up to the game about not   even knowing who the NE secondary players were.

Running your mouth isn’t good.  But when you can back it up, well.

As Jimmy Johnson once said, “if you gonna talk the talk, you gotta walk the walk.”