Friends

It was another very quiet trading session with mixed results once again. The bond market was back open today, but that didn’t seem to make much of a difference. The President gave a speech focused on economics, but that didn’t seem to fire up any animal spirits either. For the most part, it appears that market participants are caught between the fear of buying at new highs and the fear of missing out should stocks go higher into year end.

For the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down a fraction to close at 27,691. The S&P 500 was up 4 points to finish the day at 3091. Gold was up $1 to trade at $1,458 per ounce, while oil was down $.08 to trade at $56.78 per barrel WTI.

The most talked about thing today was the first day of Disney’s new streaming service. If you have Verizon, you evidently get one year free. Regardless, given the buzz, it appears that it will be a very popular offering from Mouse House. As for the markets, let’s see if the week picks up any steam as we roll along.

Have a nice evening everyone. Stay warm.

Jim

Friends

Not surprisingly, after yesterday’s earnings driven rally, stocks took a bit of a breather today after a somewhat disappointing retail sales number was released before the opening bell. As mentioned, we are just getting started with regards to earnings reports (Bank of America added to the decent reports from large banks), and after the close we’ll hear from Netflix, IBM and CSX.

For the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 22 points to finish the day at 27,001. The S&P 500 was down 5 points to close at 2,989. Gold was up $9 to trade at $1,493 per ounce, while oil was up $.50 to trade at $53.31 per barrel WTI.

We’ll continue to keep an eye out on all the earnings reports that will be rolling out over the next few weeks. Stay tuned.

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim

Friends

What a quarter. Political turmoil, recession fears, trade wars, Fed indecision/confusion, daily headline risk and never-ending market moving tweets. Good grief, how much did the market suffer? Well, actually, after all was said and done both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were both up around 1.25%. No, that’s not much, but given the gloom and doom feelings that permeate the business news channels on a daily basis, it’s remarkable that stocks weren’t down double digits for the quarter.

As for today, by the close the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 96 points to finish the day at 26,916. The S&P 500 was up 14 points to close at 2,976. Gold was down $27 to trade at $1,480 per ounce, while oil was down $1.71 to trade at $54.20 per barrel WTI.

We turn the page on the 3rd quarter and now enter the final quarter of the year. Expectations are that we will see one more Fed rate cut before year end, and this upcoming earnings season is sure to cause some concern as companies continue to navigate existing and potential trade situations. Let’s catch our breath and buckle up for the final three months of the year.

Have a nice evening everyone

Jim

Friends

Stocks ended lower, but without much conviction. The revised GDP number came in exactly the same as the previous revision, up 2% for the 2^nd quarter of the year, and the pending home sales number was better than last month. Once again, on the economic front, though not necessarily robust, the U. S. economy is “hanging in there” despite the stress we are seeing around the globe. (Notice I didn’t mention political headlines and tweets-I just can’t).

For the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 79 points to finish the day at 26,891. The S&P 500 was down 7 points to close at 2,977. Gold was down $1.40 to trade at $1,510 per ounce, while oil was up $.06 to trade at $56.55 per barrel WTI.

Tomorrow, we get a look at durable goods orders, personal income, consumer spending, core inflation and the consumer sentiment index. Hopefully, that is enough to distract us from tweets and headlines. Let’s see how the week finishes out tomorrow.

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim

Friends

Yields on bonds fell this morning which spooked the stock market at the open, but the bulls rallied the troops and stock buyers appeared and drove sticks higher by midday. Trading was quiet in the afternoon, but the bulls can be encouraged that they were able to hold onto the hard earned gains.

By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 258 points to finish the day at 26,036. The S&P 500 was up 18 points to close at 2,887. Gold was down $3.10 to trade at $1,548 per ounce, while oil was up $1.00 to trade at $55.93 per barrel WTI.

As mentioned, interest rate declines have been triggering stock sell offs. Did we break that cycle today, or was it just a one day phenomenon? It will be something to watch for.

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim

Friends

Everything looked to be just fine. Despite the Chinese
announcement of additional tariffs (which sent stock futures lower right before
the open), Fed Chair Powell’s opaque speech at Jackson Hole seemed effective enough
to settle things down, and by about 9:15 stocks had actually worked their way
into positive territory. Then, the President went nuclear. He blasted Jay
Powell then declared China the “enemy” and last, but certainly not least he
wrote – “American Companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for
an alternatives to China…”. Now, I could be wrong, but I don’t think an
American President can order corporate America to “bring their companies home”.
Regardless, stocks collapsed and the selling got worse as the day wore on. The
demeanor of the President finally negatively affected stocks today. Many market
participants might agree with what the President is trying to accomplish, and
it’s not easy, but today the markets were unnerved by his temperament and
impulsiveness.

By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 623
points to finish the day at 25,628. The S&P 500 was down 75 points to close
at 2,847. Gold was up $29 to trade at $1,538 per ounce, while oil was down
$1.43 to trade at $53.92 per barrel WTI.

We appear to be in a full-fledged trade war now (well, at
least until the next tweet), but that would likely force the Fed to be even
more accommodative than they might have been already leaning. So, let’s just
catch our breath, see what the President unveils this afternoon, and prepare
for next week. Remember, headline filled days like today are not to be acted
upon. Long term investment goals are achieved through patience, planning and
determination. We’ll be back at it for you next week.

Have a great weekend everyone.

Jim

Friends

Stocks took a beating today fueled by lousy economic numbers overnight in Germany and China, and a yield curve inversion in the closely watched 2/10 year Treasury note spread. Now, late in the day the actual spread is not inverted (the 2 year is at 1.58% while the 10 year is at 1.59%), but for overreacting’s sake, we’ll just say that they are. You know the drill, an inverted yield curve either means we are heading into recession or at least it will be the cause of one. Yes, for whatever reason you choose (political, doomsday punditry, self-loathing) we are once again determined to talk ourselves into a recession. Given the overwhelming negative sentiment at the moment, stocks simply didn’t have a chance today.

By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 800 points to finish the day at 25,479. The S&P 500 was down 85 points to close at 2,840. Gold was up $11 to trade at $1,526 per ounce, while oil was down $2.01 to trade at $55.09 per barrel WTI.

Yes, folks we will experience another recession at some point. As a matter of fact, if we are lucky enough to live for a couple more decades (fingers crossed) we are going to experience more recessions and more bear markets for stocks. Capitalism produces business cycles. Now, central bankers have been desperately trying to eliminate business cycles for some time, but eventually they face diminishing returns for their efforts (see Japan). We are likely to see the Fed cut rates again soon (never give up), but it is questionable just how that will help. I guess if mortgage rates drop to 1% the housing sector is safe. And, by the way for investors and planners who need to provide income at retirement, negative interest rates might be a problem (yes, more than a trillion dollars of debt has negative yield around the globe- I’m not kidding). So… will the Fed be able to get out in front of this coming recession and cut it off at the pass? Are negative yields coming to a financial institution near you? Or, will the “don’t fight the Fed” vigilantes prove to be right once again as TINA shows off her market powers? Insert thinking guy emoji.

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim

Friends

Well, that escalated rather quickly. After last week’s difficulties for stocks triggered by the President lighting the trade war tariff match, China’s threatened retaliations (and currency devaluation) along with unrest in Hong Kong sent stocks tumbling at the open of trading this morning. Tumbling turned into cascading by midday and continued into the afternoon. Though, we did recover some and closed off the lows of the day, it basically was a mess for the bulls. Interest rates around the world continue to tumble, adding to anxiety that the global economies are becoming less and less fixable, and central banks will have less and less effect on them.

By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 767 points to finish the day at 25,717. The S&P 500 was down 87 points to close at 2,844. Gold was up $15 to trade at $1,473 per ounce, while oil was down $.81 to trade at $54.85 per barrel WTI.

Very quickly, the S&P 500 is down 6% from the all-time highs, and if you look back exactly one year the S&P is basically flat. But, of course, we’ve had a lot of action between now and then, not to mention a lot of anxiety and a few thrills. Wow, this is just Monday! Buckle up for the week ahead. We’ll let you know how it all unfolds.

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim

Friends

Despite a slight earnings miss by Amazon, there were many
other good earnings releases, not the least of which was Alphabet’s, which
helped push market averages to new all-time highs. Today’s GDP number, which
showed 2.1% growth in the 2^nd quarter, was actually a little better
than expected, but not so hot as to deter the Fed from cutting rates next week.
That expectation of a rate cut along with a reasonably good earnings season is
fueling the market advance.

For the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 51
points to close at 27,192. The S&P 500 was up 22 points to finish the day
at 3,025. Gold was up $2 to trade at $1,417 per ounce, while oil was up $.18 to
trade at $56.20 per barrel WTI.

It was a very busy week for corporate earnings, and with
nearly half of the S&P having reported, EPS growth is actually showing a
positive number, which is definitely better than expected. The earnings deluge
will continue next week, and of course, we will have the FOMC meeting on
Tuesday and Wednesday. With today’s market action, it appears that market
participants are getting more comfortable with the corporate earnings picture,
and most certainly are expecting an interest rate cut next week. It should be
another fun week ahead. We’ll keep an eye on it all for you.

Have a great weekend everyone.

Jim

Friends

Buckle up. This is a big week for corporate earnings as
we’ll hear from Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Facebook, Travelers, Caterpillar,
Lockheed Martin, Kimberly Clark, Harley Davidson, United Technologies, Coca
Cola, AT&T, Boeing, Ford, 3M, Intel, McDonald’s, and Colgate-Palmolive-
just to mention a few. Then we’ll have another big week for earnings next week
while at the same time an FOMC meeting is happening. So, by the end of the
month, we’ll have a good read on corporate America and we’ll know whether the
Fed has begun to lower interest rates again. It should be a very interesting
couple of weeks.

Other than some strength in the Nasdaq, stocks were mostly
quiet today, perhaps in anticipation of a lot of fireworks coming the next two
weeks. For the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 17 points to close
at 27,171. The S&P 500 was up 8 points to finish the day at 2,985. Gold was
up $1 to trade at $1,427 per ounce, while oil was up $.46 to trade at $56.09
per barrel WTI.

So far it’s been a difficult earnings season to figure out.
Expectations were lowered coming into this earnings season, but stock prices
were sitting at all-time highs. This somewhat confusing set up has led to
market participants wondering just how stocks will react to the releases, and
so far the reactions have been mixed and somewhat muted. Let’s see if anything
breaks loose over the next couple of weeks. Stay tuned, we’ll keep you apprised
of the developments.

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim