Above the fold
Betting on the Come
Something isn’t adding up. At least it isn’t adding up just yet. But, it will.
“Of those who watch sports on TV, about 11 percent said they now watch more as a result of political and social messaging,” a late March Yahoo! Sports survey concluded. “However, 34.5 percent, more than one-third, said they are watching less. The vast majority, roughly 56.3 percent, said they watch about the same amount regardless of political or social messaging.”
The NFL’s dominance of the sports and television landscape is not coming to an end anytime soon. On Thursday, March 21st, the league announced a new 11-year, $110 billion deal with its television partners that will begin in 2023. That’s billion with a big capital B. For perspective, the previous deal, which runs from 2014 through 2022, was inked for a paltry $27.9 billion back in 2011.
The contrast of the two paragraphs above is obvious.
We offer two catchphrases. One, time heals all wounds. And two, the media moguls and the NFL execs must be betting on the come.
“Betting on the Come” is derived from a gambling expression and means you don’t have what you want or need, now at the moment. But, you are betting or hoping you will have what you want or need when the time comes.
What you want or need are advertisers to sell airtime to so that you can offset the $110 billion you are spending for the broadcast rights. What you want or need are fans to watch in record numbers so that said advertisers will want or need the airtime.
And every network that had a part of the last package dove in to maintain their position. One newcomer is Amazon Prime. “All the networks know that having NFL rights is an absolute must-have if they’re going to build those direct consumer streaming services,” says Rob Simmelkjaer, the former director of programming at ESPN.
So once America heals from Covid-19 pain and once it heals from the social discourse all things return to normal, eh? Perhaps. But the real reason why ESPN, ABC, NBC, and FOX bet on the come was they bet that bettors would come to the broadcasts.
Commissioner Roger Goodell made no secret of this upon the announcement of the NFL’s new television deal. “We’re going to find ways we can engage fans with legalized sports betting,” said Goodell.
The league can now speak openly about betting and start to integrate betting content into the presentation of their games. “It’s what allowed them to get such a big increase in this round of negotiations,” Simmelkjaer continued.
Placing a team in Vegas was a tell. And, now the league that suspended players Paul Hornung and 
Alex Karras in 1963 for flirting with gamblers has come full circle. Then Commissioner Pete Rozelle even referred to the unsavory types as “known hoodlums.”
Perhaps the known hoodlums are no longer known as hoodlums.
This brings us to the third and final catchphrase of the morning.
Follow the money.
Always.