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Did the new NFL playoff expanded format for 2020 and beyond slip right by you?

The NFL changed its highly approved of, very fair, and long-standing playoff tradition.  It’s the first playoff format change since 1990.

John Madden used to say that December football was different than the months prior.  He said it’s because good teams turn up the effort and solidify their playoff spots or division championships, while average to bad teams play out the string.

Seven teams out of 16 in each conference now make the postseason tourney.  With five or six games left, the possibilities are numerous.

As Thanksgiving approaches, we decided to take a few days this week and next to take a team by team look at each division to separate the contenders from the pretenders.

That series continues today with a look at the AFC North.

The Past

– Pittsburgh is one of, if not the model franchise in the NFL and for that matter all of sports.  One family has owned it for its existence.  The Steelers have had only three head coaches (Noll, Cowher, and Tomlin) since 1969.  They have won six Super Bowls in the modern era tied with the NE Patriots.  Their eight appearances are second only to New England’s 11.

– The Baltimore Ravens (once they moved from Cleveland) have been worthy adversaries to the Steelers for the last twenty years.  Ozzie Newsome is on the shortlist of best GM/ Presidents in the NFL.  They know defensive talent when they see it and they know how to deploy it.

– Cincinnati has had spurts, but has cheap minded ownership hence a nonsustainable model for winning.  Cleveland has been Cleveland.

The Outlook

–  The outlook prior to the season had Baltimore as the frontrunner coming off of their strong 2019 season and returning Lamar Jackson and most all of the pieces of a good to real good D.

– Pittsburgh is always good (see above), but questions about Ben Rothlisberger’s age and health, a continual transition at the skill positions, and at times a leaky D made them a bit of a question mark.

– Cleveland has been assembling talent over the last few years, but had yet to pull it together.  It’s hard to change a multi-decade culture.

– Cincinnatti lacked talent from top to bottom and gave up on Andy Dalton after years of mediocrity at the position.  They had the first pick in last years’ draft for a reason.

The Present

– Raise your hand if you had the Steelers as the lone undefeated team in the NFL a week prior to Thanksgiving.  They’re an average offense statistically, but they’re ranked third overall in team defense, first in special teams, first in third-down conversions on offense, third in turnovers allowed, and second in penalty yards against.  There are a lot of ways to win a game and the Steelers exploit that.

– Raven’s fans might be disappointed sitting at 6-3.  While the division might be out of reach, the losses are to the Chiefs, the Steelers in a close one, and to a desperate at home New England team last week.  The defense is, as it always is, darn good giving up only 18 ppg and ranks first in all of the NFL in overall defensive metrics.

– Browns fans might be ecstatic sitting at 6-3.  But scoring 216 points while giving up 244 is a telling stat.  Their six wins came against Cincinnati (twice) Washington, Dallas, Houston, and Indy (the lone quality win).  Their offense has been held to six points by the Ravens and the Raiders, and to seven by the Steelers.

– Cincinnati isn’t good enough to win many games, and they haven’t.  Jimmies and Joes usually beat x’s and o’s. And Cincinnatti only has one Joe worth mentioning and that is Joe Burrow.  He needs an offensive line and soon and he’ll be able to will them to more victories.  And Cincy needs plenty more Jimmies on D.

The Prediction(s)

– The Steelers will lose somewhere along the way.  Don Shula, RIP, will smile from above. The Ravens visit on Thanksgiving night.  But very often a front runner like this 9-0 team is destined for the number one seed and a deep playoff run.  We’re calling the Steelers 14-2, North Division Champions, and the number one AFC seed.  But, we think they’ll fall a bit shy of yet another Super Bowl appearance.

– The Ravens are tough to gauge.  Playing from ahead they are one tough team.  If they trail can Lamar and company win one big one when they need to do so?  They have the Browns, Bengals, Cowboys, Football Team, and the Giants left along with the Titans and the Steelers.  11-5 (our bet) seems like a lock and 12-4 is possible.  Will they be the highest rated wild card seed come January?  From there?  We see one wild card win, then a loss.

–  We’ll fade the Browns.  The only game that we see as an outright win left is the Jets.  The other six, Jaguars and Giants included, will be tough for them.  And, the lockerroom is only a match light away from a dumpster fire.  We see 8-8 for the Browns and another cold winter on Lake Erie.

– The Bengals will “scrap you for a ball” as one Lester Miles used to say about some other Bengals.  They just don’t have enough scrappers.  If Burrow remains upright through December we see a 2-1 run through Washington, Dallas, and the NY Giants.  They’s bow to the Steelers, Ravens, and Miami.  Week 16 is at Houston, and given that mess, we’d call it a toss-up.  Mark us down for 5-10-1 and mark the Bengals down for better things ahead in 2021 and 2022.

 

Abby will weigh in with her picks tomorrow.

But a road trip for the BBR staff to NOLA could make the writing cloudy to nonexistent Monday and Tuesday.