Above the fold

Kneeling and Nielsen Numbers

The commissioner’s job in the major American based sports is a lucrative one.  It’s lucrative because it comes with great responsibility.  It’s difficult on many fronts.

One of those fronts is that they work for the owners, yet need to keep the players happy, with great TV ratings always an end goal.  TV broadcasting rights are the source of greater than 50% of the income that the leagues take in.

And in these “unprecedented, new normal, COVID-19 times” some of the other 50% isn’t ringing the cash register either.  The turnstiles are silent, and, therefore the stands are empty.  This makes TV ratings more important than ever.

So, it’s interesting that Adam Silver, NBA commish, and Roger Goodell, NFL commish, have taken the stances that they have with regards to the Black Lives Matter organization (and/or Movement) as well as the kneeling during the presentation of the flag and national anthem.

Ethan Strauss of The Athletic notes that the NBA ratings are coming in well under the pre-COVID break numbers.  In Feb., before COVID hysteria shut the league down, Sports Business Daily reported that the league had seen a 12 percent loss in viewership compared to 2018-19.  All of this is on top of a recent release of the numbers showing ABC’s NBA broadcasts in 2019-20 averaged 2.95 million viewers, down from its 5.42 million during 2011-12.  That is a 45 percent drop off.  Strauss also reported that TNT’s viewership is down 40 percent since the 2011-12 season, and ESPN has seen a decline of about 20 percent during the same time.

Other leagues are about breakeven comparing the now to the 2011-12 timeframe.   It should be noted that live streaming, a growing segment of viewership after cutting the cable cord, isn’t included in any metrics.

The NBA Commissioner tried to dismiss the sliding ratings early this year.  “I’m not concerned.   In terms of every other key indicator that we look at that measures the popularity of the league, we’re up,” he told the Washington Post in December.

What to do, what to do?

Enter Roger Goodell.  Goodell said that he wishes “we had listened earlier” to what Colin Kaepernick was trying to bring attention to when he began kneeling for the national anthem in 2016.  He expressed remorse about the lack of dialogue with the former San Francisco 49ers quarterback, saying that the league would have benefited from a conversation with Kaepernick.

Goodell also said that players kneeling is “not about the flag” and that their intentions are being “mischaracterized.”  He is entitled to his opinion.  He may indeed be right.  However, if NFL TV ratings tumble along the lines of the NBA’s he may be right in his characterization, but wrong for his league’s coiffures.  Jerry Jones is holding (impatiently) on line three.

You would think that an America starved in 2020 for escape would be looking at the sports on TV in record numbers.  Instead, they are masked and standing in long checkout lines at Home Depot.

Could it just be that the NBA season is very disjointed?  It started.  It stopped.  It played a week or two of the regular season when it resumed.  Now it’s in the first round of its playoffs.  Or, could it be that a portion of America, bigger than the league is willing to admit, cut the cord in a very different way than described above?

Soon the NFL viewership will give us further insight.  It dropped 10-15% a few years back when Kapernick knelt and wanted everyone to listen.  It recovered that and then some through 2019.

But, 2020 always surprises us.

The next thing you know they’ll be two hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico at the same time for the first time since 1959.

Are you ready for some football?

Comment section

Engage. Enrage. Enjoy.

  • These guys(commissioners) are reacting to any wind that blows. Soon there will be a pro paintball division of basketball anchored in Portland and Seattle.

    If it gets mentioned enough times on social media, they’ll soon have a policy or plan. They have tens of millions of reasons to do so. Goodell’s salary alone exceeds 24 million dollars.

    I’m just looking out there to gauge the appetite for abolishing the NCAA. Seems like the time is right doesn’t it? After all, ratings pay the bills and few conferences make the ratings.

    • I think that the NCAA’s days as they are constructed now are numbered.
      There seems to be a lot of followers in leadership positions these days as you note.

  • If these NFL guys stand and even sign along with the so-called Black National Anthem and then take a knee for the real National Anthem, my TV is off, even though I love football and the Jaguars. This is about football, not the amateur debate club. The ungrateful Kaepernick has nothing to add to any discussion that is meaningful. He’s a prick.

    • There are strong feelings on both sides of this mess. We’re glad that you shared yours.

  • You noted the answer but didn’t expand. One would expect tv ratings to be a lot lower based on the nearing 200 million users in the US (growing daily) that use live stream services. TV ratings don’t reflect an accurate look at the number of people watching just a snap shot of an older demographic of people watching that don’t understand what cord cutting means besides the literal sense. League revenue in the NBA has grown every year from 2011 through 2019 over doubling in that span to 8.76 billion. I would say viewership is at an all time high.

    • If all of the above is due to cord cutting then why wouldn’t other programming ratings follow? The percent of cord cut and the percent of decline don’t match. The NFL TV is up over the same time frame that the NBA is shooting air balls.
      Also the rise in revenue is due to broadcast rights increases that the TNT’s of the world might be regretting right about now.

  • TNT and ESPN prime time games are up 6% I viewership vs. pre-corona NBA viewership post shutdown is up 8% vs the prior year compared to spring 2019 end of season games. PUT (people using television) are down 18% compared to the end of March and April, which is when these games would have been airing in the regular season. Additionally you are up against summer competing with a lifestyle, to say ratings are up or down is pointless, has not context behind it because there are no comparables. I don’t think the NBA is concerned in the least about viewership numbers. It’s best days are ahead.

    • Is using ratings to then say ratings are pointless actually pointless?
      We got our numbers directly from Adam Silver’s office. Adam is a frequent reader of BBR. He’s asked us to reach out to you to gauge your interest in joining his PR department. He appreciates loyalty.

  • Let’s assume that 200 million US TVs are actually live streams. Is a rating system that leaves out 200 million viewers reliable anyway?

    The 800 pound elephant in the room is the font. Yes, the font. Painting in 2000 point font “Black Lives Matter” is offensive to many sports fans and has no place on a basketball court. Painting in 2000 point font “All Lives Matter” offends some and has no place on a basketball court. Painting in 2000 point font “TRUMP 2020” offends some and has no place on a basketball court. If the real goal is to be politically correct and inclusive of all races, genders, blah blah blah, then just play the sport, period. If the National Anthem offends some, then don’t play it. I’m tuning in to see the game, period. I’m tuning out when the focus is on everything but the game, period.