boomboomsroom

Let us dispell two myths this AM.  One, cheaters never win.  Two, any press is good press.  Both are false.

The Astros won the 2017 World Series and cheated using a player-driven electronic sign-stealing scheme throughout the regular season and straight through the World Series.  MLB warned all 30 clubs early that September that electronic sign stealing was against the rules and that GM’s and managers would be held responsible for any violations.

The press, after the MLB report finding the Astros guilty was released in early January, unleashed their vitriol towards the Astros organization and it has been anything but good for them.  The team has compounded the negative sentiment with one PR blunder after another.  Owner Jim Crane tripped all over himself attempting to set the record straight from the Florida spring training site last week.  Players from multiple teams have taken turns talking, complaining, and even whining about it as well.

But, let’s get some facts straight, offer some opinions, and even make some predictions about the circus that is the Astros organization right now.

1.  They were guilty and are paying a steep price.  The GM and manager were held accountable, suspended by MLB, and fired by Crane.  MLB fined the team 5 million bucks, the most allowed by the franchise/league agreement.  Additionally, the team forfeits its first and second round amateur draft picks in 2020 and 2021.  If you want more blood you can scream that the team should “give back” its 2017 World Series trophy and renounce its title.  Good luck.  MLB declined to do so.  You can’t undo what is done.  Take the trophy back?  Sure.  It’s a symbol, not an outcome.
2. A.J. Hinch was suspended for half a year and fired by Crane.  Hinch was against the scheme, busted two monitors to show his displeasure, but never stood up and said: “stop this.”  His reputation, sterling throughout the game otherwise, took a hard hit up the middle.  It says here that he’ll take the year away from the game, rehab his rep through another chance, perhaps as an assistant for another team for a year or two, and will be back managing before 2024.  He’s too good for all 30 owners to pass him by for too long.
3. GM Jeff Luhnow might be done in MLB.  He’s ahead of the game analytically. He’s tough to work with.  He’s not too popular league-wide.  He might get another chance as a paid employee, but a better guess might be as a third-party consultant in personnel matters.
4. The scheme stopped very early in 2018 and ceased to exist beyond that per the investigation.  The Astros success (lost 2018 playoffs and 2019 World Series) after 2017 is legit.  Players actually interviewed asked for the process to halt because they “found it to be a distraction while batting, not a help.”  Anyone can rail all they wish about 2017, but the team won over 100 games a year since.  It’s just such a bad look.
5. Seven of the nine primary position players in the 2017 batting order had better-hitting stats on the road than at home.  The five best players’ regular season splits are below. Maybe they would have hit even worse at home if no one banged on a garbage can.  That we will never know.  It is true that the postseason splits favor the home Astros greatly over the road.  But, the sample size is so much smaller than the regular season.  Postseason pitching in a short series factors greatly in that as well.  Your ace and deuce might pitch all four home games in a seven-game series.
6. The Yankees lost to the Astros in seven in the 2017 ALCS.  The home team won all seven games.  In Minute Maid the Yankees scored 1,1,1, and 0 in four losses.  In the Bronx they scored 8,6, and 5 in three wins.  The Yanks weren’t banging a trash can at home, they just hit a lot better.  They didn’t hit a lick at Minute Maid regardless of the Astros playing outside of the chalk lines.
7.  The Boston Red Sox lost to the Astros in the 2017 ALDS.  They worked the Astros in the ALCS while on their way to the 2018 World Series championship.  They are under investigation themselves for the same reasons during their 2018 season.   Pot.  Kettle.  Not good.
8.   The only thing worse than “did Jose Altuve wear a device to get signals about pitches?” is that Carlos Correa painstakingly defended him.  If Altuve did, is it worse than listening for the beat of the drum anyway?  Maybe he did, and maybe he didn’t.  Audio only uncovers 23 discernable trash can bangs all year for Altuve batting at home.  It’s been said by a few teammates that Altuve asked that it stop while he batted.  Maybe so, maybe not.  He hit .338 in 2016 with no accusations and .346 in 2017 with accusations.  He’s a lifetime .315 hitter and has nearly 1600 hits in 9 MLB seasons.
9.  The popular theory for 2020 is that Astros batters will get plunked repeatedly for their wayward ways and arrogance since.  Maybe so.  Several sites have even put a betting over/under line on it.  It’s 83.5 four-seamers to the hip on the year.  Last year they were hit 66 times.  Take the under.  MLB has already warned teams that fines and suspensions are available for any intentional beanballs.
10. The damage to the game and to the Astros organization is done and it’s significant.  They should have apologized profusely from the owner down to the bat boy and moved on.  They didn’t.  Now would be a great time to fire the whole PR team and hire a new one, and have the players shut up and play ball.

Is this scandal the worst in baseball history?  Maybe.  Shoeless Joe Jackson and his White Sox teammates supposedly threw WS games 100 years ago.  Pete Rose bet on baseball while actively managing the Reds.  A host of players took steroids and hit it further and threw it faster than ever before.  Time will sort it all out.

Right now the Astros organization smells bad.  At least they finally took the trash cans out.