boomboomsroom

After Santa Claus has come and gone comes the final regular season weekend in the NFL.  Santa comes to town the 25th of every December.  You can bank on it.   The last week of the NFL regular season occurs right afterwards.  You can bank on it.  What you cannot bank on, however, is predicting the outcome of NFL games.

And, week 17 is toughest of all.  Why, you might ask? That can be answered with one easy question.  Who cares?  That is the question.  How can you tell which team cares enough in week 17 to actually give it their all.

Reasons for indifference about winning this Sunday abound.  If you are in the playoffs do you rest some or all of your starters?  If so, do you rest some or all for some or all of the game?  If you need to win to get into the playoffs, do your chances vaporize prior to your kickoff based on results from earlier games that day?  If you are out of the playoffs, do you play for pride(an overused battle cry)?  Or, do you mail it in?  Do you play for your favorite coaches job?  Do you play for your own job?  Does the franchise tank the game to improve their draft position?  Is it time to give that backup quarterback his chance?   Questions far outweigh answers.

All of those legit questions aside, let’s examine a few games and be dumb brave enough to take a stab at their outcomes.  If you bet real money and take advice from the guesses below, we suggest that you stop betting real money.  Or, at least tread very lightly in week 17.

Miami at Buffalo(-3.5)  – Here is the classic two teams playing for pride (read as “nothing”) game.  Miami fired their GM yesterday.  Does that mean their coach’s job is safe?   Oh, and why is Buffalo favored?  We guess it’s because they’re at their home stadium.  Home is also a place where they can get cozy by the fireplace to watch the playoffs.   For no good reason at all, take Miami plus the points.

Detroit at Green Bay(-8.0) – Detroit annually disappoints.  This team lived down to its expectations.  They’ve been mentally out for months and statistically eliminated for weeks.  Green Bay is in the unfamiliar position of playing out the string.  Are they playing to help Joe Philbin get the vacant HC job?  Doubtful.   Are they the better team?  No doubt.  When in doubt take more than a touchdown in any NFL game, anytime.  Except this week.  We’ll take GB to win the game and cover late somehow.

Jacksonville at Houston(-6.5) – Jacksonville imploded weeks ago.  However, they rose from the ashes last weekend.  Houston has a division championship on the line and playoff seeding(possibly) implications at stake.  Best of all Houston lost on the road in a close one last week.  This seems like one of the few games this week that is a good betting spot.  We’ll take Houston to win on the money line though it’s expensive at 3-1.  And we’ll take Houston to cover the 6.5 a well.

Carolina at New Orleans(-9.0) – New Orleans has already secured a bye week and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  Carolina shut down weeks ago in the midst of a six game losing streak.  As a result, they shut down Cam Newton two weeks ago due to an ailing wing.  His backup is now hurt.  Enter third stringer Kyle Allen for his NFL debut.  Brees and most of his ailing offensive line might not play at all.  Enter Teddy Bridgewater for his Saints debut.  You get the picture?  Take Carolina plus nine in what will look like a final preseason game though we expect the Saints to win a fairly close one.  Call it 24-18 for grins.

Cincinnatti at Pittsburgh(-14.0) – This one is tricky.  Baltimore hosts the suddenly angry Cleveland Browns at the same time.  If Baltimore wins Pittsburgh is eliminated from the playoff chase.  Pittsburgh might be angry too after a hard fought, close loss to New Orleans last weekend.  Meanwhile we expect Cleveland to keep it close v. Baltimore with the Ravens winning on a late FG.  Pittsburgh never mails it in.  We expect them to score early and often and do a bit of scoreboard watching along the way.  It’s hard to spot 14 points in any NFL game.  We will.  Take Pittsburgh minus.

Good luck wagering in week 17.  You might be better off putting your money at risk in the stock market.  Sorry, too soon?